Categories

The US smartphone landscape

comScore published the latest data regarding US smartphone installed base. To summarize:

  • Penetration reached 37.4%, an increase of 2.9 million or 1.24 points of percentage.
  • Approximately 650k consumers switched from non-smart to smartphones every week during September
  • Based on trailing average of six months’ growth, 50% penetration will be reached by end of September 2012, though the trend is for accelerated adoption (see chart below).

Of the platforms available, Android reached 39 million users, RIM 16.5 million, Apple 24 million and Microsoft about 5 million. Smartphone non-consumers dropped to 147 million. Among platforms, here are the shares and total users:

In terms of user gain/loss here is the tally:

Android and iOS have continued to increase consumption fairly consistently while RIM has moderated user losses. Microsoft has also shown the fourth consecutive month of usage increase having increased users by 440k since May. The new Windows Phones seem to have at least stopped erosion of user base though that base is still nearly a third of RIM’s.

Overall, smartphone non-consumption continues to be the largest competitor though one which is steadily losing.

Even though China may overtake it in the new few months, the US is the largest smartphone market and it’s a good leading indicator of the way the industry in evolving. It’s also being measured by multiple observers[1] and we thus have a better chance at understanding the rate at which change is happening.

Note:

  1. Nielsen reports that 43% of the phones in use in the US now are smartphones in the US with Ages 25 to 34 having 62% penetration.

 

  • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

    Thanks for this effort. One of my favorite posts you do each quarter.

  • Anonymous

    Also, techgadgetsweb reports that Apple got 52% of the total mobile phone industry profit with 4.2% of the market.

    http://www.techgadgetsweb.com/5371/market-share-apple-52-industry’s-profit

  • Anonymous

    Why are we still calling it “Windows Mobile” in the charts? It would seem to me that all Microsoft data should be for Windows Phone 7 (and labeled as such), and Windows Mobile should be lumped into “other” at this point.

    • Anonymous

      I’m guessing MS asked Comscore nicely not to do that.

      • Anonymous

        Perhaps, but I’ve felt for a while that this is obscuring useful data. Maybe WinPhone7 numbers aren’t available, I dunno, but seriously. I want to see clearly how WinPhone7 does, especially now with the very competitive Mango release, and Nokia getting ready to roll in.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        comScore does not spell out the platform name and only used the company name so Windows (Phone/Mobile) is listed only as “Microsoft”.
        We all want to see clearly how WinPhone 7 does but Microsoft does not want us to see that clearly.

    • Anonymous

      These are Microsoft phone sales. The fact that Microsoft changed the name of their system between versions is irrelevant. You don’t see 2 categories for iPhone OS and iOS, do you? They are the same thing, just like all of Microsoft’s phones. It is just a Microsoft PR point that suggest they are different. They are version 6 and 7 of the same old crufty PDA system from 1996.

      If you want to focus on Microsoft versus Microsoft, that is a different chart.

      • Anonymous

        I thought windows phone 7 was a completely new platform?

      • Anonymous

        Oh don’t be silly. People care about this because it’s an indicator of the future.
        If most of the numbers are WP7, that tells us MS has something of a phone future ahead of it; if most of the numbers are WMobile, that tells us MS has a rather more difficult track ahead of it.

        This is an adult site — people are here because they are interested, at a serious level, in the future of these platforms, not because they’re interested in boosterism and “proof” of how well their favorite company is doing.

      • Anonymous

        Windows Phone is a brand new OS that is not compatible with Windows Mobile, though MS wishes they could have introduced a compatibility layer.

  • Roger

    Has Palm really dropped to zero as the graphs show? The trend would seem to indicate that there should be a few hundred thousand and possibly close to a million. That makes me question the margin of error in the numbers – is it +/- 500,000?

    • Anonymous

      Palm ceased to exist 2 years ago.

    • Anonymous

      Probably reclassification, as HP falls under Other.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      Palm has not dropped to zero. comScore has stopped reporting that information and so their total is part of “Other”.

    • http://twitter.com/twtomcat Markus Leutwyler

      Looks like webOS got merged into Other after June 2011

  • Eric V

    Shouldn’t the last chart “US Platform Install Base” show the total install base (approx 240M) fluctuate over time?

    • jawbroken

      This comes up in every posts that shows this chart. The phone market is saturated so the total number, as reported by comScore, doesn’t vary over this timescale.

      • auger

        This graph just screams ‘bo-o-o-gus’ for this exact reason. Is 234 million some sort of universal constant? Total install base did not change in two years? Sorry, but this completely destroys any credibility of their data.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      It should but comScore has not updated their estimate for total number of subscribers (234 million) over the time span shown.

  • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

    comscore never has the correct numbers, Android is growing faster and Apple’s market share is shrinking.

    • jawbroken

      What are the “correct numbers”? Care to share them?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        You can get correct numbers by:
        1. Asking the manufacturers or waiting for them to tell you
        2. Doing research on component sales to manufacturers and figuring out how many are being sold
        3. Having sources at all the resellers, retailers, carriers, that can give you an idea but usually limited to a region

        You certainly DO NOT do the comscore BS which is to do some kind of random online survey thing which 99% of web users dismiss because those are bogus and people don’t want to spend time filling those out, and that absolutely DOES NOT give you any indication of sales, it just shows you a stat on whoever was visiting those VERY SPECIFIC sites and only of people who cared to fill out comscores survey. For example, if the survey is on asymco.com most people might be using iphone. And if the survey is on any technically advanced site frequented by hackers, geeks, the largest majority of those users use Android. Making surveys online like that is complete bogus, but asymco will use any number that doesn’t show the truth which is that iphone market share is shrinking. I didn’t say they are selling less, just having a smaller marketshare.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        And what if you do the survey on Phandroid.com? By your logic, Android is really tanking and the data is fundamentally weighted wrong.

        So again, show us your real numbers. Or are you making up your position?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Just because it’s hard to make a real analysis and get the real numbers, just because Samsung and other Android makers do not want to publish their numbers, just because the Chinese factories are very secretive, just because Google’s announced activation numbers are not the same as Apple’s quarterly factory-shipment numbers, that does not make it correct to just take whatever lazy ass bogus web statistics and web surveys from some corrupt bogus web stats “analyst” and call it having the correct numbers, go around to make your bogus diagrams and get some techmeme juice. You’d go do a count one time, how many stories on techmeme during the year are completely bogus and how many are actually factual and true, you’d find most are completely bogus, but hey, if you want numbers not from the source but from some bogus paid/corrupt web statistics enterprise, just take whichever you want.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        And for some reason, you simply saying all other sources but yours are lies and wrong is correct? Comparing Google’s unknown “activation” numbers to Apple’s sold numbers makes a bit of sense but not if you understand what “activations” mean.

        Instead, you simply say that all sources are wrong and Charbax is right.

        Show us your data. Show us your methodology. Show us how this data is wrong. Do not argue simply because it goes against your religious held beliefs, show us with data. Show us that you are not some corrupt bogus source of real raw data.

        All you have to do is look at your past history of posts to see that the level of accuracy is exceedingly low. Go back in time 12 months. 18 months. Few of your hopes and dreams have materialized.

        Apple? Still not using ARM on MacBooks.

        Apple stock? Still not collapsed like you predicted.
        As everyone can see that Android is obviously just about to destroy the iphone OS, apple’s profits and revenues will soon shrink rapidly, which will lead to rapid devaluation of the stock.

        Android tablet market share? Still not HUGE like you predicted it would be by this time.

        Consumers will not buy $500 ipads when there are $200 Android alternatives.

        How did those predictions turn out?

        You project your hopes and desires when looking at data and reject all data that does not conform to your world view.

      • http://twitter.com/Marcos_El_Malo Marcos_El_Malo

        Try going back 10 years! I’m fairly certain I’ve seen Charbax pushing his religious agenda going back at least that far.

        Heads up to commenters: We’re being trolled. Respond (or, even better, don’t) accordingly.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Yup you are correct. I am the number 1 Archos fan in the world, and Archos is the inventor of every popular Apple product. ipod was invented by Archos and ipod touch, iphone and ipad were invented by Archos years before Apple released those. The only difference between Archos and Apple is the amount of cash. If Archos had more cash, you’d all be french fanboys now.

      • jawbroken

        Archos would have more cash if they didn’t make products that essentially nobody wants to buy. You are confusing cause and effect.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Archos is very healthy for a 100-employee company, and all real geeks want to buy Archos and nothing else. Archos is one of the only European consumer electronics company, over here there simply is less cash involved.

      • jawbroken

        Well, I suspect your “real geek” label is circular, in that you would only define a “real geek” as someone that wants to buy Archos products. Putting that aside, I don’t see what a small “real geek” market in Europe has to do with a post about the US smartphone landscape.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Most of what Apple sells today is based on stolen ideas which they stole from Archos over the past decade and other consumer electronics companies that have been actually inventing the stuff.

      • jawbroken

        Even if I were to accept that, how does that have anything to do with the US smartphone landscape or Apple’s coming demise or whatever you’re currently raving about?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        All my previous posts have turned out true. And yes you can go back 10 years, I predicted the tablet, I am in fact the web’s only true believer of the ARM Powered Tablet since about 2003, I’ve had my first ARM powered tablet in 2004. And yes, APPL will collapse as soon as investors see its profit margins and market share starting to be reduced, but hey, you won’t find those facts on asymco, asymco is the headquarters for the APPL share holder keeping overvaluation high propaganda.

        Android tablets are taking over, likely more Android tablets will be sold per day than ipad before the end of they year. That’s exactly what I have been saying for months now.

        Apple will use ARM in the Macbooks, it’s the only way they can maximize profits on the macbook.

        Again, if you want correct numbers, do not get them from bogus “web survey” corrupt “analysts”, but hey, if you are satisfied with those, given the complete lack of scientific merrit of the methodology, go ahead. Stay brainwashed by the APPL overvaluation propaganda for as long as you like. Keep your APPL stock for as long as you want, just don’t blame me for not having warned you once the value of your APPL stocks are halved very quickly.

      • jawbroken

        A reduction in market share of smartphones doesn’t need to affect valuation significantly because the smartphone market itself is growing rapidly. That is how Apple sold 100% more iPhones y/y.

        The rest of this comment is just irrelevant raving. How is profit margin relevant? How is ARM in Macbooks relevant? Why would the value of AAPL halve, if as you say elsewhere, all Apple products are bought by a few million “fanboys”?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        There is this very basic fact, that a company CANNOT be worth $370 Billion when all it’s making more than 65% of its profits from is one single product, the iphone. And that the whole profit scheme of the smartphone industry is so obviously being turned on its head at the speed of light. People were paying $3000 for an iPhone on a 2-year contract. The biggest scam in the history of mankind. As fast as huge smartphone profit margins appeared out of nowhere, they will dissapear from society even faster.

        The profit margins are everything and THE ONLY REASON Apple is worth anything. Without the ipod and iphone, Apple would have either been bankrupt or worth less than half of the Dell stock today. ($14 Billion max vs $370 Billion now because of ipod and iphone).

        Apple becomes absolutely worthless once they can’t make huge mountains of profits from the iphone. They are making $450 profit per iphone today, it costs $150 to manufacture and they sell them for $600 to carriers and unlocked.

        ARM Macbook costs $150 to manufacture and Apple can also hope to sell it $600. That is why they’d do that. Instead of keeping to manufacture $600 macbooks that they sell at $1000.

      • jawbroken

        This isn’t a basic fact at all. How do you explain that Apple have managed to maintain their margins in other product lines (such as laptops) over many years?

        Then you go on to confuse profits and profit margins so I won’t even address that.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Oh man, you want to insist?

        Iphone: $150 manufacture, sold $600 = 300% profit margin
        Ipad: $200 manufacture, sold $500 = 150% profit margin
        Ipod touch: $120 manufacture, sold $200 = 66% profit margin
        macbook air: $600 manufacture, sold $1000 = 66% profit margin

        The iPhone is the only product maintaining Apple’s huge profit stream. Once that one is gone, there is no miracle. Apple is not going to invent levitating penguins that everyone will want to buy for 10x the cost or anything like that. Apple would need to sell 2x more iPads (without reducing $499 price!) than they currently sell iPhones if they’d want to keep the same amount of company profit. Not going to happen! Not that many people at all in society are ready to pay $1000 for an Apple branded Netbook, which is what the Macbook Air pretty much is about.

      • jawbroken

        None of these are actual profit numbers that Apple sees, but even taking them at face value this wasn’t my point at all. I’m not arguing that a large portion of Apple’s profits don’t come from the iPhone, I’m saying that they have maintained large margins relative to the industry in their other lines, such as laptops, where they also handily outgrow the market. The rest of your comment is irrelevant.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        My numbers are very relevant. It does not matter if Apple makes more profits than Asus or Acer on each Macbook sold vs each Asus or Acer laptop sold. You cannot value a company at $370 Billion if all they have is a macbook that few millions of rich people buy for over $1000 here and there. If Apple didn’t have ipod and iphone they’d be completely worthless today.

      • jawbroken

        Again, irrelevant and doesn’t address anything I said. I never suggested that Apple would be in the same position without the iPod and iPhone, that would be the kind of absurd statement that you would make. I only suggested that the erosion in profit margin isn’t a given.

      • jawbroken

        Also you have a basic mathematics failure again. By your own figures an iPhone is $450 profit, while an iPad is $300, so that’s only 1.5x for the same profit, using your simplistic logic.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Profit margin is all that counts, read it up. For every $1 invested in manufacturing, Apple is making $4 revenue on each sold iphone and $2.50 revenue on each sold ipad.

        To make the same profits, Apple would need to sell 2x more ipad than they currently sell iphones, that’s simply not going to happen, don’t you get it?

        Same thing of some imaginative “cheaper” iphone or ipad that Apple could decide to release, for example a low-end iphone mini, or 7″ ipad mini, they’d need to sell even more than 2x current iphone numbers to keep making the same overall company profits, that’s quite simply impossible!

      • jawbroken

        Profit margin is not “all that counts”, that is an absurd statement.

        Again, no, you have made a basic mistake, by your own figures for the same “profit” they would only have to sell 1.5x the units on something that makes $300 profit vs $450. I don’t know what you are calculating here.

        “they’d need to sell even more than 2x current iphone numbers to keep making the same overall company profits, that’s quite simply impossible!”

        Hmmm, weird, because they just sold 2x current iPhone numbers in fiscal 2011 than they had in all the years up to that point. I guess they achieved the impossible. But again, it’s not really relevant so it doesn’t actually matter that you are completely wrong.

      • jawbroken

        And of course it also ignores the other iPad models so the $500 figure is ridiculous.

      • GeorgeS

        “Iphone: $150 manufacture, sold $600 = 300% profit margin”

        Profit margin is based upon sales, not costs. You are confusing “profit margin” with “markup.” This sort of error destroys your credibility.

        The “cost” you cite is really only the cost of the components, without assembly, distribution, sales, warranty, support, etc.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        $150 includes all costs, components, assembly (which is not more than $5 per device), distribution is putting a million phones on a ship or on an airplane, does not cost more. Everything is included in the $150 number. Apple makes $450 profit per iphone.

        If you consider they have 5% spare units for warranty, that’s a cost for them that is 5% of approx $150 so that is still included. Apple’s R&D expense is the industry’s lowest compared to their overall profits, thus they spend the industry’s lowest % of their revenues/profits on R&D.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        Sadly, I can’t find a single post of yours that came out true. Two months ago, you predicted AAPL would fall 70% because of the MMI/GOOG deal. It failed. I posted 2 other examples that turned out to patently false. Your insight into business and technology is clouded by a religious fervor that prevents you from seeing any rational data outside your own limited worldview.

        And any stock will collapse as soon as it fails to deliver. Someday, Google will collapse. Oracle will collapse. Apple will collapse. Likewise, someday the Sun will go Nova.

        Your issue is you specify time quantities like “soon” and “maybe tomorrow”. After 18 months, “soon” has never happened. “Maybe tomorrow” never happened. You foreshadowed with 100% certainty that Android would over take iOS in the tablet space by the end of the year. Turns out to be equally laughable. Your rose colored Googles color your ability to prognosticate the future to an extreme degree. Even worse, you are incapable of looking back at the past to learn from your failures.

        Android in the tablet market is an unmitigated failure with the road littered by products standing as graves stones to Google’s hubris. Comparing the Android shipping units to Apple’s sold units is a fools game (For example, Verizon was dumping their 7″ and 10″ Samsung tablets for $50 and $100 respectively. No contract. No strings. Just get these things off of our shelves). Likewise, the two most probable popular Androidish tablets, the Nook and the Fire, are not even Android as they do not pass the Google compatibility tests, have their own non-Google services included and are not supported by Google. The Nook and the Fire will effectively devastate any other 3rd party option of a tablet based off of Android source.

        As far as data-sources go. You outright lie to support your view. For example, you link to a >1 year old iPhone sales chart on Wikipedia to support Android today is far out performing the iPhone. Talk about corrupt and biased.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Good on you to read attentively everything that I write over the years, too bad you don’t understand any of it. When I say APPL will collapse imminently, that’s doesn’t mean tomorrow, but it means soon, maybe 6 months, maybe 2 years, the point is you are stupid if you don’t sell your APPL stock while you can get any sort of profit out of it.

        I still stand by Android tablets are going to sell more than iPad during at least one day before the end of the year. That basically means Android tablet daily shipments is going to overtake iPad before the end of they year. Daily shipments matter more than anything else, especially as Android device shipments grows constantly and does not peak at new device release like the iphone.

        Nook and Fire are Android tablets, you are pathetic if you want to dismiss open source Android devices as not being Android devices when THE WHOLE POINT with Android is to be open source. The openness of Android is what makes its strength, that is why Android is completely dominating the smartphone market since less than 1 year after Nexus One was released and that Android tablets are going to dominate the tablet market less than 1 year after the Nexus Tablet (Xoom 1) was released.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        I read enough of your humor over the past 2-3 years (Disqus makes it fast and easy) to understand that you are incapable to make a rational thought about Apple and way overestimate Google’s position on all of their products.

        Definition
        Imminent: 1. about to happen:

        That means really soon. Not 5 years from now. Not even 2 years from now. When discussing stocks, Imminent would mean within 1 or 2 quarters. You have been predicting Apple imminent stock collapse for many years. You have been 100% wrong on those forecasts.

        I still stand by Android tablets are going to sell more than iPad during at least one day before the end of the year

        Let’s change the goal posts. What you just wrote is not what you have written in the past. From that view, Apple is crushing Android because they have peaked at over 1.5 million activations/day. From your warped logic, Apple is selling nearly 3X the number of phones than all of the Android handsets combined. Thanks for proving that Apple is selling more than Android in the handset markets

        The reality is, however, there is no slated Android tablet (not Androidish like the Nook and Fire) that is slated to go on sale in the next 3 months that will compete with the iPad.

        The “Nexus Tablet”? Where do you come up with your nomenclature? Do you make it up out of thin air?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Imminent means as soon as the share holders understand it makes no sense to value Apple at $370 Billion when 65% of its profits comes only from the iphone. This could happen tomorrow if I were to be able to write an article about it in the New York Times or something. Or if may happen later because those share holders get played again by some other bogus announcement about how many iPhone 4S Apple sold on the first week end or whatever other BS that lets them keep the reality distortion field activated.

        I have always talked about daily sales, by that I mean daily activations, same thing Google has always announced. That is the only thing that counts!!!! Not some bogus quarterly numbers play and some random launch weekend announcements which is the only thing Apple gives you.

        I can give you the list of about 12 major Android tablets that are being released before Christmas, all coming with newer faster ARM Cortex-A9 dual cores, with much faster memory bandwidth than Tegra2.

        Nexus Tablet simply means the Google team worked closely with Motorola to release Honeycomb on the Xoom 1 which is why I call it the Nexus Tablet, Google probably wanted to call it Nexus Tablet but Motorola and Verizon prefered to call it Xoom. Just as Samsung is calling the latest Nexus phone the Galaxy Nexus instead of letting Google call it Nexus Prime. It’s all about these brands wanting to brand the devices as their own instead of letting Google brand it as the reference Google phone or tablet.

        Nexus is the point from which you can see the Android domination really happen, that is when the software and hardware integration reaches perfection, thus not really when Droid1 came but really only first when Nexus One was released. From then on you see the rapid growth of Android to the point of dominating over the iphone. And the same is happening for Android tablets to dominate over the ipad.

        But you can also go ahead and only read on asymco or whichever other bogus blogs that keep saying that Android tablets aren’t selling. What a load of bollocks, Android tablets are selling in huge numbers, to the point a year ago in France, Archos had 22% of the tablet market share in November and December, and again, Archos is just a 100-employee French tablet company, let’s see how it’ll be this year.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        Wow, you make it easy.

        Imminent or later? Take your pick. I gave you a dictionary definition of “imminent”. Are you redefining the English language? All stocks will tank “later”. No company is forever. What is it? Imminent as in 2-3 months or later as in sometime from 2-10 years from now? Take a stand. Imminent or later?

        Daily sales is what counts? Then why don’t you base your failed logic on Apple’s peak daily sales? Google talks about trended average daily activations over a 3 month period. Again, you have to understand how the script counts that number for it to make sense.

        So what are the 12 new grave stones about to be planted? Having lots of SKUs does not mean the platform is selling. The Tegra 2 was a dog of a processor and none of the slated tablets coming on line in the next 6 months have a GPU with even close in performance to the 6 month old iPad 2.

        “Nexus Tablet” is just a term you made up to try and sound smart. It is as meaningless as most of your posts.

        “Nexus is the point from which you can see the Android domination really happen, that is when the software and hardware integration reaches perfection”

        Really? Perfection. As is smooth and fluid operation. They don’t have that yet on ICS yet alone Froyo. Perfection? Where the interface is still so bad, Google has to continuously try and reinvent it every time?

        “But you can also go ahead and only read on asymco or whichever other bogus blogs that keep saying that Android tablets aren’t selling”

        Not based on “bogus blogs” (like everything you write) but actually data. From web share and Google Market place data to talking with Verizon reps. Seriously. Do you think Verizon would be dumping $500 and $600 tablets for $50 and $100 respectively
        (no contract) if they were selling? The sad part is, they were selling more $600 iPads than $100 Galaxy Tabs. There is no indication of any web usage, Android Market data or anywhere that any of these tablets are being used if they are being sold. Given the fire sales offered by Verizon, I suspect they are not selling well at all.

        Android on tablets is an unmitigated disaster only exceeded by Google TV. What amazes me is all these companies willing to loose 100′s of millions for Google.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Apple uses SGX543 at 200Mhz which does not perform better than SGX540 at 380Mhz which is what some Android tablets use such as the new Archos G9 tablets that sell for about half the price of the iPad2.

        Nobody is dumping Android tablets at $50 with no contract. You go dream if you want. Or go ahead and go buy some and sell them for 5x more on ebay.

        Android works far better on tablets than iOS on iPad2. The Android API was designed since Donut to scale all apps up to medium density screens, which means all 300 thousand Android apps WORK PERFECTLY FINE on all tablets, which actually means Android tablets support far more apps than are supported on iPad.

        You can go to read usage analytics reports and see that consumers are far more effecient using Android on tablets than iOS, all in terms of productivity, being able to reach tasks faster, both for expert users and for beginners, look it up.

        Overall though tablets are still mostly an entertainment consumption device, mostly used for playing crappy games, playing videos uncomfortably (except with Archos which have kick-stands) and web browsing that is always worse than on a laptop. Getting to be more productive with a tablet requires it to fit a pocket, which is why 5″ and 7″ Android tablets are being used about 5x more productively and more often then the users use tablets of the size of the iPad.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        “Nobody is dumping Android tablets at $50 with no contract. You go dream if you want. Or go ahead and go buy some and sell them for 5x more on ebay.

        Verizon was this weekend. “Clearing inventory” was the term he used. The single core 540 @380 MHz not only underperforms the 543MP2 @200MHz but also burns substantially more power and runs substantially hotter. Nice try. Bone up on your PowerVR tech and come back.

        So many errors. So little time.

        End of Line.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Good excuse by the Apple fanboys that Apple purposefully underclocks their processors to save on power use. That’s mostly just bogus though as ARM Processors and GPUs that go with them are designed to only peak at full frenquency in small bursts so the power consumption is minimal and no it’s wrong to think the SGX543 at 200Mhz is faster than SGX540 at 380Mhz, it’s wrong. Apple cheats with the benchmarks, it’s easy to cheat, even hackers in the alternative Android cyanogenmod firmwares are able to make the cheats show higher benchmark results, try again fanboy.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        Except the A5 uses the 543MP2 and it is more than 2X faster at the same clock than the single core 540. Do you lie as a basis to support your view of reality or what?

        As I said, go bone up on your PowerVR stats and come back.

        So everyone lies and cheats and is corrupt except Charbax? Every web site in the world is bogus except yours that shows the shining light of truth? Is that really your world view?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        You wish you wish that’s all you Apple fanboys do. Apple claims SGX543 in A5 is 2x faster than SGX535 in A4, that is their claim, and anyways, the Archos G9 Android tablet has the better SGX540 and clocked nearly 2x faster. In fact, the Archos G9 Turbo uses OMAP4460 which has a 1.5Ghz dual-core processor, that means more than 50% faster performance than the iPad2 and also, much much faster memory bandwidth than the iPad2, all that and much more for $100 cheaper. Any consumer with a brain when entering the store, if given the choice between Archos Android tablet and iPad2 is going to choose Archos, there is simply no question about it. If someone tomorrow went to invest $1 Billion in Archos tablet production, they’d be selling more tablets than Apple. Still with just 100 employees, that’s how much more advanced the Android ecosystem is compared to your proprietary Apple.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        You make it so easy. I am starting to think you are paid by Apple to make Android users look sad.

        From Apple’s site:
        “Two powerful cores in one A5 chip mean iPad can do twice the work at once. Multitasking is smooth, apps load quickly, and anything you touch responds instantly. And with up to nine times the graphics performance of the first-generation iPad, everything on iPad 2 is even more fluid and realistic, from gameplay to scrolling through your photo library.”

        The 9X really shines through in fill rates and OpenCL work. The 543MP is a monster. As I have noted: You really do need to bone up on your working knowledge of the PowerVR series before embarrassing yourself further.

        The OMAP4460 uses the SGX540, released in 2007, in a single core configuration. A single 540 is less than half the speed in many operations as a single core SGX543 (released in 2010 BTW). Apple uses the SGX543MP2 in a dual core configuration.

        This is funny:
        “If someone tomorrow went to invest $1 Billion in Archos tablet production, they’d be selling more tablets than Apple. Still with just 100 employees, that’s how much more advanced the Android ecosystem is compared to your proprietary Apple.

        Except Archos tends to get panned for low quality and poor battery life. The G9 has had some decent reviews but has pretty poor battery life (7 hours? really?), lacks availability and is a heavy/thick contender in its size class. There is a reason no one is paying up $1 billion to invest in Archos production line. Smart consumers will pick the stronger eco-system: iOS.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        You go ahead and go learn your knowledge on Apple’s site and on fanboy sites like asymco. Even for gaming tasks, a doubling of cores does not double performance, barely improves by 50%. The Archos at nearly half the price runs at 200% the clock speed. The only reason people aren’t eager to invest a billion dollars in increasing Archos production capacity is because their business strategy is 20% profit margin, not 300% profit margin like Apple. But Archos is just one example, they sell everything instantly that they can afford to manufacture and they are happy with a 20% profit margin, a perfectly reasonable business model for a 100-employee company. You go ahead and believe your favorite 50-thousand employee Apple company is infallible, don’t post here when APPL stock has imminently collapsed. I don’t need your excuses at that point.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        So the programming tech specs from Imagination Technologies is an Apple Fanboy site as well? Is the entire world a conspiracy? Now, even the company that designs the PowerVR graphics system is out to get Android.

        On graphics, yes, doubling the the cores scale almost linearly unto 4 cores or so. Part of the magic of the 543MPn design.

        300% margin? Do you lie and makeup numbers at a continuous rate?

      • jawbroken

        So, again, what are the “correct numbers”? Do you have a better source for us to look at? Where did you get the numbers that make you so sure that Apple is losing market share (presumably you mean smartphone share)? If there aren’t better numbers you can point to then it is rude to accuse the article of cherry-picking figures when the source is clearly stated and you don’t appear to be offering a better one.

        Hey, if it makes you feel better, why don’t you just write down which numbers would please you and we’ll go from there.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        I’ve been to China many times, I’ve talked with people that work in the factories in Shenzhen, I’ve talked with tons of Android manufacturers, the numbers are obvious, Android is dominating all over the world. Be it in rich countries and much more so in developing countries. And then I use basic common sense, all the carriers prefer to sell Android simply because Android provides cheaper prices and more diversity, a carrier needs exclusive designs to differentiate and they prefer paying less and keeping more money to themselves instead of giving all that money to Apple. But hey, you just go ahead and believe whatever you want. Go ahead, read the bogus comscore, nielsen, gartner, all a bunch of bogus analysts who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about and who sell you bogus reports (and who are most often paid by Microsoft/Apple/etc to give you those bogus numbers) based on bogus “web stats” that have absolutely NOTHING to do with actual worldwide sales and market share.

      • jawbroken

        Ah, so I should believe your gut feeling and take your word on your research and credentials over other’s analysis, despite your disqus comment history showing a strong pro-android bias.

        The numbers presented in the post show android with a wide lead, so I’m not sure why you are particularly mad about them. Obviously your developing countries comments and baffling references to “worldwide sales and market share” are irrelevant to a post titled “The US smartphone landscape” so I’ll ignore them. You suggest some points as to why carriers may prefer to sell android phones but, again, I don’t see why that makes you think you can make concrete statements about exact market shares.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Android’s lead is much wider and faster and thus Apple’s market share is shrinking, that is all that I am trying to let you know.

      • jawbroken

        The former doesn’t imply the latter because there are not only two smartphone operating systems. Do you understand this basic fact? That one is growing faster than the other doesn’t mean that the other is losing market share, since they can both be taking share from Blackberry, etc as the above data shows.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Oh that is simply so sad that you Apple fanboys weant to believe Apple can still take market share away from Microsoft, Palm, Symbian and RIM. So sad for you. 95% of the market share from those has been taken by Android already. There is only Android and iPhone on the market. Wake up. Go to your local Best Buy, you will see Android phones being sold at $59 on MetroPCS, no contracts required, those are on pre-paid. Those are being sold in huge numbers in all Walgreens, CVS Pharmacy, Costco, WalMart etc.

      • jawbroken

        You can keep saying things like this but without numbers it’s completely worthless and a waste of everyone’s time.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Yup these articles based on bogus comscore numbers are a waste of everyone’s time. That’s what I am trying to say here.

    • Anonymous

      Wrong. Both platforms are gaining marketshare of the overall phone market – android at a faster rate at present.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        You’re wrong. Android is gaining market share SO FAST that iPhone is actually LOOSING market share. But you won’t read that on asymco because this is an APPL share holder fansite.

      • jawbroken

        You might want to read more carefully to see the difference between smartphone share and overall phone market share. It would be absurd of you to suggest that Apple is losing overall market share.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Apple is loosing smartphone market share. It’s only the smartphone market share that counts, that is the only market that is making huge mountains of money, I dunno what you are trying to say.

      • jawbroken

        Again, what numbers are you using to show that they are losing market share? You seem incredibly sure of that fact despite being completely unwilling to reveal a source or explain your reasoning. You even state elsewhere that it would be very difficult to get accurate numbers, which makes your surety on this point even more suspicious.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Google announced 190 million Android devices shipped, those are only the official ones not the non-certified ones, with non-certified the numbers is likely over 250 million by now. Those are activated, most are in use right now because most were sold in the last year.

        Apple announced 73 million “shipped” iphones thus far http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IPhone_sales_per_quarter.svg Most of those are NOT active, because if you ask iphone4 and iphone 4s buyers what their previous phones were, in more than 50% of the cases they already had one of the previous iphones. Most Apple customers are repeat Apple customers. And most of the PR around iphone 4s sales is replaced by latest quarter shipments which have not yet been sold to actual consumers and not yet activated.

      • jawbroken

        Haha, wow. This is one of the most disingenuous comments I’ve seen. The 73.5m iPhones shipped was at the end of fiscal year 2010, by the graph on the same Wikipedia page there were around double that, 145.8m total, shipped at the end of fiscal 2011, the same time at which android announced 190m “activations”, which has a nebulous relationship to devices shipped and also includes android tablets.

        The same questions you ask about how repeat customers affect the ability to extrapolate marketshare apply equally to android. Unless your suggestion is that the android user experience is so bad that there is a significant difference in repeat customers between the two operating systems, which I would have to agree with from all the user satisfaction figures I have seen.

        If this is the kind of “analysis” and “calculation” you do to come up with the claims in your various posts then forgive me for being incredibly skeptical of the conclusions you draw.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Most Android phones were bought in the last 12 months, ergo most are now in use. Not the same for Apple. More than half of iphones sold thus far are not anymore in use. Android reaches most experts, most geeks, most hackers, as well as most first time smartphone users, most mass market consumers, most teenagers, most grand parents and most soccer moms etc. Android dominates in every category, except maybe in the category of previous iphone owners which for some reason feel the need to “upgrade”. Basically all Apple products are always bought by the same group of few millions of Apple fanboys that just keep spending all their money on Apple stuff.

      • jawbroken

        “Most Android phones were bought in the last 12 months, ergo most are now in use.”

        The same is true for iPhones, approximately half of them were sold in the last 12 months (even more since the 4S release). Are you saying that most of the people who bought iPhones in the last 12 months have thrown them away?

        Essentially nothing you say makes any sense. So, in the last 12 months, the 80m or so iPhones that were sold were bought by a few million people, who each bought 20 phones. Ah yes, that sounds reasonable.

        You still didn’t address your massive misrepresentation of iPhone and Android numbers in my previous post.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Absolutely not true. Apple is selling more and more phones, but in absolutely NO WAY as high a growth rate as Android, ergo most Android phones sold in the history of Android were sold in the last 12 months, that number of active iphones vs total sold iphones is absolutely not the same for Apple.

      • jawbroken

        The sales of iPhones are known! You can see for yourselfthat the majoritywere sold in the last 12 months. Again, the smartphone market as a whole is growing.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        Google announced 190 million devices activated. You have to learn what “activated” means for that number to make any sense.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Activations make much more sense than factory shipments which is what Apple only talks about. Apple’s iphone activations number is likely 3x to 4x lower than Android by now.

      • jawbroken

        These numbers make no sense. Are you saying that something like 2/3rds of iPhones are sitting unsold somewhere?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Iphone Q4 2011 numbers of 17.1 million, most of those were not actually sold yet to customers at the date of Apple’s quarterly announcement. They basically ramp up manufacturing in the days leading up to their quarterly announcements, they know those will be sold in the following months anyways, especially in the Christmas quarter, they may even have counted a bunch of iphone 4s in that.

      • kevin

        So you’re saying Apple is lying when they mention the number of units in channel inventory, which is much lower than the 17.1m.

      • jawbroken

        Replying up here because it is narrow below. Where is your evidence that those phones weren’t sold at the quarterly announcement? Nothing you are saying makes sense. If the phones are going to be sold in the next quarter anyway then what is their incentive to “ramp up manufacturing before earnings” or whatever your insane theory is.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Quite simply, Apple needs to show as impressive numbers as they can for as long as they can, otherwise the APPL stock will collapse too early. Apple would give you activation numbers if they were good and impressive, which they are not. Android activations is growing every single day, regardless of new product announcements and release, while Apple activations peak on release of a new iphone and that number goes down steadily every day until they release another iphone.

      • jawbroken

        None of this is fact based, no reason to addressit.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        But do you know how an “activation” is counted? I do based off a source 1 degree removed from the person that wrote the script at Google that counts “activattions”.

        Do you know?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        1 SSID logs in to Google Marketplace for the first time is = 1 actionation, that means the device has been sold to an end consumer and has started to be used.

      • Felipefpmzzz

        it is impossible to read this

      • Anonymous

        LOL

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        Close but not quite. Try again on your definition of “Activaation”.

      • Guest

        You’d have a lot more credibility if you learned how to spell. Also, try a thesaurus to help your obsession with the word “bogus.”

      • Anonymous

        What on earth are you on about? we are talking total handset marketshare – not smartphone only marketshare. even if apple’s smartphone marketshare is not growing (or even losing a little) the massive growth of smartphones in the total phone handset marketshare means apple is growing at over 50% y-o-y.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        No we are not. We are not comparing washing machines with smartphones, if you want to talk smartphones, you have to talk smartphones, and not compare them with dumb phones and feature phones, it’s that easy.

    • Ab

      How does Comscore conduct its market research? Interesting to know how they calculate the figures and what questions are asked.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        They do bogus online stats, for example when they measure browser stats they have some sites which they think are representative (but which are not) and they measure on those, sometimes they have some bogus online surveys which random bogus people fill out and just are not representative of anything.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        The methodology is described here: http://www.comscore.com/About_comScore/Methodology

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        comscore is deeply corrupt and bogus, but you go ahead and use them anyway http://techrights.org/2010/06/14/comscore-is-fake/

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax
      • Ab

        So would we consider Comscore as a lagging indicator? Horace if you have the time have you a written a post on what you consider leading indicators of smarphone shipments?

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        This is very much a trailing indicator. Install base is the last thing to change but it’s also arguably the most important. The leading indicators are things like intent to buy surveys, 3G rollout rates and in the case of platforms, customer satisfaction surveys. Customer satisfaction lets you guess how many people will likely switch platforms after they reach saturation.

      • Ab

        What would be interesting to work out is

        what is the Apple retention ratio for upgrades
        what is the Android retention ratio for upgrades
        What is the percentage breakdown of new smartphone buyers

        Currently the market is working along linear path I dont see a major disruption on the scale of the original Iphone. It seems Android and Ios will be the ones carving up this space.

        I have seen the UBS report re retention ratios but its misleading as its not comparing o/s but hardware manufacturers.

        Also would be interesting to see what percentage of Iphones are sold on contract compared to Android. Are those who buy phones off contract or on Pay As You Go more lilikely to switch?

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Perhaps things won’t change but according to a recent estimate from Ericsson, by 2016 there will be about 5.2 billion smartphones and tablets in use by 2016 (out of over 8 billion mobile subs total).
        The mobile computing market is likely to diverge quite a bit from the fixed computing market and the sheer numbers involved might lead to some unexpected turns in economics.

      • Ab

        Disruptions if they are to occur will most likely be from new entrants from different industries. Apple came from computing into Music and then from Music into smartphones. Amazon may disrupt the lower end tablet market. ZTE and Huawei with their background in telecoms equipment entering the lower end Android market.

        So who else might enter the tablet / smartphone space as a disruptor as if Ericsson estimates are in the right ballpark this is a massive opportunity.

        Apple is one of the few companies that has effectively taken advantage of economies of scale as well as economies of scope. The ios platform is shipping close to 100m devices a year and its spread across – phones, tablets, music players and tv boxes. Each distinct product shares a great deal of the same hardware underneath.

    • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

      Once again Charbax, you allow your emotion to override rational data. Both the iPhone and Android are gaining in overall market share data though Android is growing at a faster rate. Every data point, from market studies like Comscore, NDP, Gartner and Nielsen support this.

      Likewise, web usage statistics from Net Market Share, Statcounter and Chitka also support this hypothesis. Not only that, the Web usage stats indicate that iOS is growing at a substantially faster rate than Android pointing to massive under-utilization of the platform as a whole. People are using the “smart” aspect of iOS devices much more than the “smart” aspects of Android devices.

      Only Charbax believes your hypothesis supported by 0 data.

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        Oh yeah man, it’s totally rational to do “web surveys” to determine market share of hardware that’s being manufactured in China and sold all over the world. Yeah man, go ahead.

      • http://www.noisetech-software.com/Home.html Steven Noyes

        Show us your data? You keep making accusations but nothing (not even a sound argument) to back it up.

        Based on history, your data and predictions have been way way off base. How is this any different?

      • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

        APPL stock is down about $20 Billion in 2 days, I dunno if this is the collapse yet, but surely someone (maybe you) has been reading my comments on here and acting accordingly. Sell your APPL stock while you have some profit on them.

      • jawbroken

        Haha, are you going to crow here whenever there’s a couple percent drop and remain curiously silent on upward movement? Enjoy.

      • kevin

        It’s AAPL, not APPL. I can see it’s really hard for you to get things right.

    • James Lambeth

      If you don’t like com score fine but there are other bits of data collection that shows iOS being used much more than others for smart phone usage.

      Look at an article at Biongo’s site. They supply hourly web access at many airports and Mcdonalds and others. The use iOS vs Android isn’t even close.

  • RB

    So 9 in 10 iphones are sold outside the US?

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      The exact ratio is difficult to calculate since we don’t know the number of phones being upgraded and put out of use (though I am working on this). I estimate the ratio of US sales at about 13 to 15%.

  • Jez McKean

    Who chose the colours for the charts, most confusing not having Android in green!

  • http://twitter.com/piroozram Mehrdad Piroozram

    Not sure, if it is realistic to compare Android as a single platform like iOS. We see in our projects, that Android produced hugh painful legacy. To fix that problem, google needs to play a triple play of hardware, OS & App-Store. #Motorola #Carrier-Firmware #hardware-features

    • John

      I absolutely agree with this. If you expanded iOS into the hundreds of different devices that use Android, how would the stats change?

      Also, as a developer Android is just incredibly frustrating. Having to anticipate four different OSes (as one) with hundreds of different screen types is just… well it’s just frustrating as hell.

  • Pingback: Buy Modern Warfare 3, Get a Free Smartphone - HTC VERIZON – HTC VERIZON

  • Pingback: Buy Modern Warfare 3, Get a Free Smartphone | My Blog

  • Pingback: Comscore Data Shows An Ocean of Dumb Phones | Gadgets Geekly

  • http://twitter.com/Marcos_El_Malo Marcos_El_Malo

    This is really uncalled for. Horace, please delete.

  • Pingback: Some great stats from @asymco | mpulp

  • Pingback: Cómo está el mercado de los smartphones en EE UU | TICbeat

  • http://www.facebook.com/rizkisuluhadi Rizki Suluh Adi

    does the nokia symbian smartphones falls into ‘others’ category ?

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      Yes.

  • http://www.flasharry.com Michael McCarthy

    WP7 was only released as an OS on 21st October 2010. I understand they have merged the old Windows Mobile with WP7 and just called it Windows Mobile Platform. This doesn’t make much sense to me though as they are completely different entities.

    Wouldn’t it be better to separate them to show accurate growth of WP7?

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      It would be better to separate them but comScore does not provide that information.

  • Pingback: THE APPLE INVESTOR: As Siri Takes On Google Search, Apple Will Also Go After Google Maps (AAPL) | TechDiem.com

  • Pingback: As Siri Takes On Google Search, Apple Will Also Go After Google Maps (AAPL) – Finding Out About

  • Pingback: THE APPLE INVESTOR: As Siri Takes On Google Search, Apple Will Also Go After Google Maps (AAPL) | Buy Cheapest iPad 2 Online

  • Pingback: Apple Business Recap: iPhone 4S Sell Outs Abound — Clearing and Settlement

  • Pingback: Apple Business Recap: iPhone 4S Sell Outs Abound — Clearing and Settlement

  • Pingback: comScore on the US phone market – September 2011 » TamsBada - the Samsung Bada blog

  • Pingback: comScore on the US phone market – September 2011 » TamsAndroid - the Android blog

  • Pingback: what » Blog Archive » 使用Flash, HTML5, Unity进行web游戏开发的现状对比

  • Pingback: Mobile Market Share | VIRTUAL DAN

  • Pingback: Sintetia » Android devora el mercado de SmartPhones en Estados Unidos