December 2011
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Day December 9, 2011

Estimates for Apple's first fiscal 2012 quarter

As the chart below shows, the last quarter (third calendar, fourth fiscal 2011) was slow with only 52% earnings growth. The discussion centered on the (surprisingly) disruptive effect of the iPhone transition. Surprising since most analysts, myself included, were lulled into thinking that the portfolio of iPhones and their wider distribution would create a smoother sales pattern vis-a-vis the more cyclical pattern seen in the first three years of production.

The second quarter was surprisingly strong and the third was surprisingly weak. So how do we estimate the fourth?