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Updated US Smartphone Saturation Forecast

The latest comScore US smartphone survey showing three months’ ending October data has been released and there were no surprises. Smartphone penetration grew to 62.5% representing 149.2 million users. I made a slight adjustment to the predictive logistic function parameters (p1 = 93, p2 = 22.5).

Logistic

The correlation between predictive and actual logistic function (P/(1-P)) is shown below.

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12-10-10.31.29 AM

90% penetration (P/(1-P) = 9.23) is now expected by December 2016 when about 230 million users will be using smartphones in the US.

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12-10-10.32.13 AM

 

Individual platforms adoption curves are shown as colored areas above and as lines on a logistic plot below:

Screen Shot 2013-12-10 at 12-10-10.34.45 AM

 

The parallel behavior of iPhone and the overall market remains unchanged.