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Author: Horace Dediu

Microsoft's mobile effort: back to the future?

Windows Phone 7 launched on 10 devices over 60 carriers in over 30 countries with 1.5 million of channel inventory in 6 weeks. Given the breadth of distribution, that number is not huge, amounting to less than 10k phones per operator.

Curiously, Windows Mobile was still selling in significant volumes last quarter. Maybe even higher than WP7 is selling now. In Q3 2009 Canalys reported 3.6 million WinMo units sold. In Q3 2010  Gartner estimated 2.3 million were sold through to end users. Even nine months ago Windows Mobile was running at 3.7 million units or over 1.8 million every six weeks.

Microsoft also announced they have 18,000 developers with 4,000 apps on the WP7 marketplace. That’s one developer for every 83 devices in inventory.

Microsoft’s Achim Berg:

our numbers are similar to the performance of other first generation mobile platforms…

We’re comfortable with where we are, and we are here for the long run; Windows Phone 7 is just the beginning.

Continue reading “Microsoft's mobile effort: back to the future?”

Is HTML5 a Flash in the pan?

When Apple promoted HTML5 as an alternative to Flash, the value was said to be in being an open standard, and in having better efficiency for device-based execution.

The problem is that there are no authoring tools for HTML5. Flash is popular because it’s fairly easy to kick start the creative process. You buy the tools from Adobe for a few hundred dollars and begin to tinker. With HTML5 you need to be a programmer, read arcane documentation, search for sample code and manually integrate results into publishing systems. That’s bush league.

iAd Producer narrows the gap a bit.

The bigger question that I struggled with is whether web apps are competitive enough. Continue reading “Is HTML5 a Flash in the pan?”

Poll: How would you like to get Asymco data?

I am preparing a productization of the data underlying the models I use. I am working with Timetric.com to build the product and we are considering several options for packaging and pricing/access.

The first question I have is about how readers would like to see the data. I put up a poll to the right.

More questions will follow.

What has Android done for Apple?

One of the most popular themes running through the mobile phone industry this year has been the unprecedented growth in Android adoption. I’ve argued that the adoption was initiated on the supply side by vendors and operators, but demand has certainly manifested itself.

Android is almost viral in the way it spreads. With no constraints on intellectual property, pricing, contracts, modification or terms of distribution, the incentives to push product out are phenomenal. It even works, mostly.

One hypothesis of the consequences of this viral adoption is that there will be a “commoditization” of smartphones with rapid price erosion to follow. This in turn might even lead to lower margins for Apple and RIM and most major vendors, including those selling Android itself.

In order to test this hypothesis, we need to look at what has been happening to prices. Continue reading “What has Android done for Apple?”

[Updated] RIM's sales down 15% in the US, up 112% outside the US

First, a round-up of the quarter’s numbers:

  • 14.2 million devices shipped, sell-through: 12.3 million
  • expect to ship 14.5 to 15 million units in the next quarter
  • ASP of approximately $315
  • US, UK and Canada are 56% of sales
  • US represented 34% of the total revenue
  • Last year US represented 57% of revenue
  • BlackBerry Torch launched in over 75 new markets, Torch launched with the $99 pricing from AT&T
  • BlackBerry Curve 3G launched with 118 carriers in 48 countries Continue reading “[Updated] RIM's sales down 15% in the US, up 112% outside the US”

It's time for Apple to look at owning factories again

Toshiba plant to make LCD panels for Apple: report | Reuters.

Apple will invest in a portion of the investment for the factory, the Nikkei said.

This is one of the more interesting news items I’ve seen for a while.

[UPDATE] Toshiba denies rumor Apple will invest in mobile display subsidiary

There was a time when Apple designed and owned factories. From an interview with John Sculley:

That went all the way through to the systems when he built the Macintosh factory. It was supposed to be the first automated factory but what it really was a final assembly and test factory with a  pick-to-pack robotic automation. It is not as novel today as it was 25 years ago, but I can remember when the CEO of General Motors along with  Ross Perot came out just to look at the  Macintosh factory. All we were doing was final assembly and test but it was done so beautifully. It was as well thought through in design as a factory–a lights out factory requiring many people–as the products were.

During the 90s the manufacturing function moved outside Apple’s ownership umbrella. It was more economical, more flexible and more scaleable to outsource manufacturing to Asia. The time has come to rethink this. Continue reading “It's time for Apple to look at owning factories again”

Asia drives Android

Andy Rubin, the executive in charge of Google’s mobile software effort, said that international expansion lay behind the latest advance. Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, he also predicted that a boom in sales in India, Brazil, Indonesia and other emerging countries would contribute to the fast growth rate for the foreseeable future.

Quoting independent research suggesting that Android has also come to account for half of smartphone shipments in China, Mr Rubin said that the open-source nature of the software had made it popular there. However, in the wake of Google’s dispute over censorship with the Chinese government, Android handsets shipped by China Mobile, the dominant supplier, do not carry the company’s search or e-mail services.

via FT.com / Technology – Booming Asia drives Google’s Android.

This was already confirmed by the data published here this morning.

Verizon alone or with the other US operators cannot account for the majority of Android volumes and anecdotal evidence points out that Europe is not contributing much more.

Analyzing the iPad as a computer: from a whisper to a roar

[Goldman Sachs analyst Bill] Shope also expects both iPad and iPhone sales to exceed expectations in 2011; he sees sales of 37.2 million iPads next year, “which could potentially make Apple one of the largest vendors in the global personal computing market,” if you include both tablets and PCs.

via Apple: Goldman Pounds The Table; Sets $430 Target – Eric Savitz – Tech Musings – Forbes.

Apparently, it’s not just the crazy ones who dare to think the iPad is computer.

My forecast for iPad in calendar 2011 was set at about 33 million since last summer. I may raise it if Q4 units top 6 million.

Meanwhile…

He re-launched coverage of the stock for Goldman this morning, setting a Buy rating and $430 price target, while placing the stock on the firms “America’s Conviction List.”

I don’t make stock price forecasts as they are based on a random number called ‘sentiment’. But by forecasting earnings and assuming a range of P/E multiples between 15 and 20 (essentially in-line or below the S&P 500) values Apple’s stock at between $360 and $480 by this time next year.

Goldman’s target of $430 is about in the middle of this range so I don’t see it as requiring much in the way of conviction.

Verizon Strikes Out in Smartphones [Updated]

[Updated]

[ITG sent an explanation of their methodology and there is no indication that the data represents inside information.]

ITG Investment Research analyst Matthew Goodman is forecasting monthly sales record for all of Verizon’s devices “based largely on our proprietary daily point-of-sale data from thousands of independent wireless retailers across the US.”

Assuming the data is accurate, we are going to dive into it but I will state up-front that without confirmation, the conclusions below should be taken with a grain of salt. All statements should be read with a preceding “if the data is accurate…”

So, if the data is accurate, here is what I conclude [1]:

Verizon Has three strikes against them:

  1. The iPhone has stolen their growth
  2. They are facing the prospect of a single OS platform supplier
  3. Android is not competitive vs. iOS Continue reading “Verizon Strikes Out in Smartphones [Updated]”