First Thoughts on the iPad

I think it’s a logical evolution of mobile computing. A hop along the trajectory. When the iPhone first rolled out as an embodiment of the new touch-based UI–a disruptive technology, I said it was far too good as a phone. It could not be a better phone because phones were as good as they could be. It was a pretty lousy computer so I reasoned all it could become was a better computer. The iPad is a better computer.

Will it be a big hit? I think it will grow nicely and be profitable. It will take several iterations but eventually it will absorb usage from low-end laptops and move computing to new contexts. It will have amazing applications in certain verticals like education, health care, travel and automotive use.

All these steps are like checkboxes in the disruptor’s playbook. In 5 years, this will be as big a business as the Mac and then Apple will have to think how they break out of the 5% share ghetto.

Will there be a response? Yes, but, like with the iPhone, not for a long time, and not symmetrically. The PC guys will dismiss this and the phone guys will see it as outside scope. Once they begin the effort in earnest, it will fall well short of the entrenched, incumbent, integrated(*), rapidly evolving juggernaut that will be Apple Mobile Computing.

(*) Note the emphasis from Apple on its own CPU in the device. Apple does not talk about chipsets in their devices, but they did this time. Not only are they signaling control, but it also shows that value-chain integration down to silicon is what is needed to go up the performance trajectory for good-enough mobile computing.

  • " In 5 years, this will be as big a business as the Mac and then Apple will have to think how they break out of the 5% share ghetto."

    You made a typo there, you meant to say "5 Months" didn't you? 🙂
    Can you imagine once they put camera's on the thing and people can Skype and use Facetime!

  • Pingback: asymco | Best Buy CEO: iPad Is Cannibalizing Laptop Sales By 50%()

  • berult

    A natural evolution in mobile computing technology as you stated back in January, but much to my astonishment, it turns out to be, foremost, a quantum finger's leap into touch-and-go with knowledge's guarded intimacy, a first hand strolling into ectoplasmic volition. 

    A "three space" mass of organic grey matters lines up with a "two space" silica morphing rectangle in a "pas de deux" to and fro of twitching fingers and tingled mind. 
    And Mobile lost… almost, but we're getting there… a middle finger in the process… 

    • Tom

      Where is google translate when you need it?

      • Berult

        When you reply to my posts, you're too busy filling in the "signature" section of yours posts and leave the "comment" section at the top eerily empty.

        While a signature reveals much about you, and I do welcome the opportunity to know more about you, a comment at the top of your post would duly shed some of the limelight on me. After all, you're answering to me aren't you?     

  • Tom, the perplexed

    One, I, must wonder: how might one, you, speak less obtusely, while still saying something worth posting. Question.

    • berult

      First of all, my apology for the delay. It was night out here and while my writing tends to keep you awake at night, it has the exact opposite effect on me. As a matter of fact, I took to writing in the first place for its soporific effect on me. Reading my handwritten words literally and figuratively puts me to sleep. But it sorta lays down the law for the morning after wisdom hang-overs. I sleep on my writing.

      Tom, you and I are way down memory lane talking nonsense, mine…! January past…, can you imagine someone other than you and me reading this, let alone showing any interest in it?
      If memory lane were the solar system, we'd be dishing it out on Pluto. Isn't it the ideal place for a talk that bears as few witnesses as it deserves?

      I share in your heartfelt perplexity. Whereas you stumble on the wording of mine, I tremble on the hoarding of yours…

      Best wishes…!

      • Tom, the focused

        Where is google translate when you need it most? Focused on market analysis of apple.