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Day April 13, 2010

One Hundred Million (part II)

My prediction is that sometime next year Apple will announce the 100 millionth iPhone OS device sold, making the iPhone the fastest selling platform in history. The iPhone will have been on the market for three years.

One Hundred Million « Asymco. (five months ago)

Did anybody else see the line below the “1 Billion” header in the iPhone 4.0 Launch Event? The segment was about the 1 Billion impressions that iAd will be able to target.  Interestingly this is one of only two forward looking estimates that Apple has ever made on the iPhone.

100 million

The 100 million threshold in units is important in several contexts.

First, on April 9th, 2007 Apple announced that the 100 millionth iPod had been sold, making the iPod the fastest selling music player in history. The first iPod was sold five and a half years earlier, in November 2001.  The iPhone will reach this in 3 years.

Second, no other platform comes close.  On November 3, 2003, Microsoft announced that it intends to sell 100 million Windows Mobile devices by year 2007. Two years after that goal, in 2009, Microsoft sold 15 million units, down from 16.5 million in 2008.  It has not reached half the targeted installed base.

Although there could be more than 100 million Symbian devices in use, they are not all running the same software, so they do not offer a targetable installed base.

Shocker: Netbook sales slow down

The results all but confirmed a sudden slowdown in netbook sales in the early part of the year and suggested the business may actually be on the decline. Intel didn’t directly explain the shift, but an ongoing recovery from the recession and a more mature market are likely to give more buying power and greater interest in faster notebooks, especially following the addition of mobile Core i3, i5 and i7 chips.

The trend away from netbooks is likely to continue as Intel raised its profit margin estimates for the whole year from a range of 58 to 64 percent earlier to between 62 and 66 cents.

Source: Electronista

A tip of the hat to John Gruber for compiling this list:

Daring Fireball: Apple Netbook Claim Chowder.

14 October 2008, Doug Aamoth at CrunchGear: “Five Reasons Why an Apple Netbook Is a No-Brainer”:

When asked today about the possibility of an Apple netbook, Steve Jobs said something to the effect of, “The market is just getting started — we’ll see how it goes.”

Huh? Here’s how the netbook market’s going, Steve: pretty much every major computer company has a netbook but you. Apple’s a prime candidate for a netbook, too.


20 January 2009, Brian Caulfield at Forbes: “Apple’s Real Problem: Netbooks:”

The real problem is how Apple’s portfolio of expensive gear — particularly notebooks — will fare as the recession starts to bite.

21 January 2009, Brian X. Chen at Wired Gadget Lab: “Apple Still Oblivious to Netbook Opportunity”.

18 March 2009, Shane O’Neill at PC World: “Recession Breathes Life Into Windows PCs as Apple Gasps for Air”:

At this point, I’m going to stop asking when Apple will acknowledge these dark days we live in because I think the answer is never. Maybe Apple should just be a bull market company. When times are lean, it should pack up like a traveling carnival or disappear like a baseball team in winter and not come back until everybody’s rich and happy again.

24 March 2009, Scott Moritz at TheStreet.com: “Apple’s Netbook Foray Will Flop”

Nonetheless, design hubris and slumping sales will cause Apple to tap a hot segment of computer market.

19 August 2009, Charles Moore at The Apple Blog: “Lack of Netbook, Price Hurting Apple in This Year’s Back-to-School Market”.

Asymco's AAPL Model: Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates

Deagol estimates 12,594 2.77

via Deagol’s AAPL Model: Fiscal 2Q 2010 Final Estimates.

In the spirit of Deagol and Turley Muller here are my estimates for the quarter:

3mo ending Mar-2010   Rev($M)   EPS($)
——————-   ——-   ——
Apple guidance         11,200     2.12
Analysts consensus     11,960     2.44
asymco estimates 12,357 2.60

asymco Revenue breakdown:
Mac        3,918 ( 3.01M @ $1,300)
iPhone     4,500 ( 7.50M @ $  600)
iPod       1,652 (11.00M @ $  150)
Music      1,206
Software     689
Periph       393
——–  ——
Total     12,357

Income statement:
Revenue   12,357
COGS       7,458
GM         4,899
OpEx       1,533
OpInc      3,366
OI&E          50
Pre-tax    3,416
Tax        1,025
NetInc     2,391
Shrs.        920
EPS         2.60

HTC Mulling Home-Grown Mobile OS

According to HTC CFO Cheng Hui-ming, the company is giving serious thought to developing its own mobile operating system

via HTC Mulling Home-Grown Mobile OS (Phone Scoop).

Delivering precisely what the world needs today.

Palm Hu?

Huawei has largely rejected Palm’s request for a buyout, a tip said this morning. Palm had reportedly proposed that Huawei take over the company in mid-February but hasn’t made any progress since. It’s not clear what objections, if any, Huawei might have.

via Palm rebuffed by Huawei on takeover talks | Electronista.

Speaking of 90%+ market shares

Meanwhile, Apple’s market share in the portable media player (PMP) category was 92%, up from 87% in the study six months ago

via AppleInsider | Number of high school students planning to buy an iPhone doubles.

Does anybody remember iPod killers?

How about the iPhone killers?

No matter, it’s now time for the iPad killers.

95.7% of devices connecting to Boingo's airport Wi-Fi network are Apple devices

The iPhone represents nearly 90% of all non-laptop connections in Boingo’s airports. The iPad registered 5.4% of all device connections, while Android tallied 2.5%. Blackberry phones and iPod Touch MP3 players accounted for less than 2% each of total visits. Windows Mobile was less than 1%.

via MacDailyNews – Boingo Wireless: Apple’s iPad surpasses Android, Blackberry and Windows Mobile in four days.

Remarkable statistics, through a narrow sampling.  The above data represents all Wi-Fi enabled non-laptop devices in Boingo’s managed network, which includes 58 airports, the Washington State Ferries, and several sporting arenas and convention centers.

Opera Mini Approved for App Store

if you’re surprised that Apple accepted Opera Mini, you don’t understand what Apple is doing with the App Store.

via Daring Fireball Linked List: Opera Mini Approved for App Store.

Is Apple Closing Off the iPhone to Rival Ad Networks?

“Notwithstanding anything else in this Agreement, Device Data may not be provided or disclosed to a third party without Apple’s prior written consent. Accordingly, the use of third party software in Your Application to collect and send Device Data to a third party for processing or analysis is expressly prohibited.”

via Is Apple Closing Off the iPhone to Rival Ad Networks? | Peter Kafka | MediaMemo | AllThingsD.

Not to worry, Eric. Android revenues will make up for AdMob’s price tag.

Oh wait