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Day May 19, 2010

Apple's Growth Scorecard

Apple’s growth and its disconnect with valuation has been a common theme on this blog. For another look at this conundrum I present here a table of Apple’s year on year sales growth by product line and its top and bottom lines.

I color coded the values so that a darker green signifies higher growth (and red, negative growth)

I call this the growth scorecard.

What does this scorecard say about the previous 24 months?

  • Earnings never grew slower than 30% for any quarter except for one quarter when the comp was ridiculously high at 155% (on the back of iPhone 3G launch).
  • Throughout the recession Apple grew sales.
  • The worst growth performance was on peripherals which is Apple’s smallest business
  • The fastest growth was the iPhone, now Apple’s largest business.
  • The iTunes store grew sales consistently throughout the previous 24 months.
  • Growth has been positive (green) across all lines for the past two quarters and has been accelerating.

My estimate for the current (June) quarter is that Net Sales will grow by 47% y/y and Earnings will grow by 60%.

Global smart phone OS shares (part II)

On May 5th, I tried to fill in the blanks on Global smart phone OS shares | Asymco. I estimated that the shares for the mobile OS’s were as follows (based on Canalys partial data):

  • Symbian (Nokia): 42%
  • Blackberry OS (RIM): 19%
  • iPhone OS (Apple): 16%
  • WinMo (Microsoft): 10%
  • Android (Google): 10%
  • WebOS (Palm): 2%

Now Gartner has published their sell-through estimates:

  • Symbian (Nokia):: 44%
  • Blackberry OS (RIM): 19%
  • iPhone OS (Apple): 15%
  • Android (Google): 10%
  • WinMo (Microsoft): 7%
  • Linux: 4%
  • Other OSs: 1%

My estimates were within 1 or 2 percent of actuals except for Windows Mobile where I over-estimated by 300 basis points.

The analysis of Android vs. iPhone market shares (globally and within the US) which depended on this estimation does not change materially.

The complete data from Gartner follows:

iPhone has 72% of Japanese smartphone market

In December I reported iPhone controls 46% of Japanese smartphone market | Asymco.  Five months later Apple’s share has reached 72%.

According the MM Research, 1.7 million iPhone were sold in the fiscal year ended March 31.  That’s not a huge number relative to the 110 million subscribers in the country. But Apple’s exclusive carrier Softbank has only 22 million subscribers so Apple may have penetrated over 10% of that user base.