How many iPads next year? Analyst Sees 45 Million IPads In 2011

The contact, says [Ticonderoga’s] White, shipped more than 6 million parts to Apple during the third quarter of the year and expects to ship 7 million more in the fourth quarter.

Since Apple uses one unit of this particular component in each iPad, that adds up to shipments of 13 million iPads in the second half of 2010. For 2011, the contact believes Apple will sell as many as 45 million iPads

via Analyst Sees 45 Million IPads In 2011, Next Gen IPad Launching Soon – Elizabeth Woyke – Mobilized – Forbes.

These numbers are not unreasonable. I expect about 35 million next year, though that could go up considerably depending on what we hear about last quarter.  We only really have one data point so far meaning the data set is to double in a few days.

  • Vikram

    Note that the analyst can't believe what his own sources are telling him – he still predicts a 22M 2011 for iPad and so called Apple analysts like Gene Munster predict 21M even though Apple will sell around 14M+ in 2010 and Tim Cook has asked suppliers to be able to produce 3M+ per month in the last quarter of 2010.

    It seems like they can't believe their "lying" eyes…

    Apple will do 100B+ in revenue in 2011…

    • Vikram

      …and I should add that I believe his sources and not his own research note to his customers…45M iPads in 2011 may be even slightly conservative….

      …I still can't get over how he predicts 22M units and yet the facts, logic and his own sources tell him double that number…

      How do these guys get these jobs? And when the real numbers come up they "revise" their estimates and use phrases like "unexpected", "no one could foresee such large numbers…", "who could have predicted…" etc…

  • I have seen all the major tables (Toshiba, S7, Galaxy Tab, and others) none come close to the iPad. I haven't seen iPad cost prices yet but I expect it to be fairly priced (if the iPhones are any indication). I however do not see how Apple will move double the volumes they will do this year.

    They cannot continue with their current attitude that to do anything with the iPad it must be tethered to a computer and iTunes. No USB, no camera, etc. Hardware features matter people, I do not care how good the software can be, great hardware matters.

    For iPad completely cannibalize netbooks and notebooks it needs to lose it needs to grow up and cut the cord to the PC.
    I will not repeat my verse that it needs to be available from the carriers for it to move the volumes that it should be pushing already, sufice to say that Android and Blackberry devices will be available to the carriers and will benefit from the billions of dollars that carriers will throw at them.

    • Gandhi

      Great hardware matters – and Apple is better at it than the competition.

      A list of hardware specs don't matter if they are a hassle to use.

      The competition has so far shown prototypes (in the case of Samsung and Dell), and vaporware (in the case of HP and RIMM).

      Except for the iPad, no comparable device is being sold as yet.

      • Galaxy Tab is shipping and so is Dell Streak. Yes, HP and RIM are, for now vaporware.

    • Ted_T

      So you don't foresee Apple adding a camera for Facetime and making other hardware improvements to its 2011 iPad models? If so, you are unique in that regard.

      So far as the iPad working independently from the PC, it does now — it can be activated at the store and work without ever being connected to a PC again. This has been said before, but people still keep complaining about how it's "tethered to the PC".

      Lastly the iPad is unlocked — any carrier is free to provide SIMs and data plans for it. Would Apple object to some carrier buying 1 million iPads and then selling them subsidized in exchange for a contract? Maybe, but we have no evidence, one way or the other. At any rate the WiFi only model will always be outside the carrier world.

      • J Ives

        Good luck updating to iOS 4.x when it ships in Nov without your USB cord.

      • How do I transfer data (music, documents, etc) from my computer to my iPad? Why can't I use a USB stick like I would with my Mac? How do I update the OS on my iPad independently from iTunes/Computer? Why no micro USB? Why no OTA updates? These are all unnecessary limitations, that would cost Apple very little to provide and would have no downside to design, etc.

        Getting the iPad directly from Apple has cost advantage, an advantage that carriers would pass to their customers. So no, carriers cannot just go and buy iPad by millions from resellers or Apple stores. Besides what reseller would take such a risk, millions of inventory that might or might not sell.

        Sure, iPad 2 will have updated hardware specs, but my issue in general is that Apple leaves this huge hardware hole for their competitors to come in and in time claim the Apple "invented" and/or popularized category.

        I sure hope though that iOS devices lose their dependency. I love iTunes but I would my iPhone and especially the iPad to grow up and operate on their own without this forced tethering. Tethering should only be for syncing huge data like 10GB of music and backup.

  • Where is the edit button again?

  • Gandhi

    With these kinds of numbers being bandied about, how is the competition expect to scale and compete against the iPad on price? Because surely that is all they can compete on considering most of them will use Android or Windows. You know Apple is getting huge discounts on buying such volumes. Then there is also the issue of supply – you know Apple gets preferential supplies because it buys in huge numbers, and more importantly, will continue to do so for the next few years going forward.

  • KRIS

    Viva la Revolution 😉 Last time Steve Jobs said that Apple is activating 230 000 iOS devices per day (ie. 83 950 000 per year) and he also said that the number it is going up. Only 11 more days and we know for sure what is going on…

  • Alexkhan2000

    I think 45 million is possible although a bit overoptimistic. I think 35 million is quite plausible. I suppose a lot will depend on the new models (including the much-rumored 7" version) and pushing the current model to the "low-end" and continue producing it as famousringo suggests. But who knows with Apple at this point in time? It seems Apple can beat the most optimistic outlooks time and time again. What's amazing is that Apple remains in the position to do for the foreseeable future. The competition just seems to be groping in the dark right now and is actually helping Apple race further ahead.

  • famousringo

    Now that I've read the article and the source talks about a 7" iPad, I don't believe a word he says. I doubt the onscreen keyboard would be usable on a 7" screen, and with half of the most successful iPad apps being productivity apps, I don't understand why Apple would put out an iPad that chops off half the use cases. Even the apps which don't need a keyboard would suffer from severely cramped UIs.

    The 7" form factor is doomed. It only exists because wannabe tablet vendors are desperate to get in the game.

    • Todd Rowekamp

      A lot of people said the 10" was doomed. Considering how much iphones and touches are used for browsing and e-mail I think 7" is reasonable especially if that is the only way they can do retina display with screen cost, processor, and battery. It would also fit easier in purses, held by children, better in mfg environments where you need a hand free.

  • Never good at math, I wonder how Apple can sell 41 million in 2011 when they can manufacture only 36 million annually?

    • famousringo

      3 million per month is Apple's goal for Q4 2010. If the iPad keeps selling out at that rate of supply, Apple can try to increase production even higher.

      But it's not as simple as pulling the 'go faster' lever. Every supplier in the chain has to be able to meet demand, or new suppliers have to be found. I'd say tripling the iPad's production in the first year is a damned tricky feat in itself. To push past that to 4 or 5 million units a month… one of those links is going to break. (See white iPhone 4 for an example of a broken supply link)

    • asymco

      Nobody knows how much they can manufacture, not even Apple. Manufacturing is a lot more predictable than it used to be but there are still many issues that can arise.

  • Todd Rowekamp

    Also would work like 3GS does. People compare to android 7" tablets and decide 7" iPad is better and then think well 10" is only $100 more so might as well buy.

  • Todd Rowekamp

    Good points but they still haven't split the iPhone into different phone factors after 4 gens so I don't think it is a set stategy.. To me it is makes as much sense as putting ios on the iPad when half the people where arguing for os x

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