Pie charts showing 13 quarters of mobile phone market evolution between the largest vendors. Pure play smartphone only vendors are shown with exploded wedges.
The disruption continues.
I never know what to make of RIM. There is always a call fo them to switch to an "open" platform or die but they surprise quater after quater by providing a service that people actually want. They have been able to grow from 5% profit share to 14% profit share in 3 years. This is an impressive feat for a company many say is going the way of the Dodo Bird. HTC has held constant. Samsung increases their market share respectively but grows their profit share by less. Nokia seems to have lost their mojo.
Apple? Well, they do what Apple does.
Well RIM have moved to a widespread platform with their support of Adobe Air / Flash in the PlayBook Tablet, and my guess is that they'll move the interface and Air/Flash support to their mobile phones shortly after.
I'm very interested in their new OS QNX, but, and while it seems obvious to move QNX to their smartphones, I wonder… I mean, look at the spec list, the PB has a dual-core, 1GHz processor with 1GB ram. That's way more horsepower than the iPad or iPhone or any Android device need to run. The question is why? Is it because they need it to run QNX with Air on top? If that's the case, then we might not see QNX on a smartphone for a while.
I saw the video of the prototype running QNX, and it was laggy. There'd be a swipe, and then the screen would move. Not instant. While they can improve and optimize the software, I'm still surprised with that kind of horsepower that you'd see any lag at all. Like I said, makes you wonder how they could fit it all into a smartphone.
PlayBook is using AIR and Flash that is why it needs more RAM.
QNX is just another Realtime OS with POSIX.
problem for RIM is not the OS it was the Java environment
was not good enough to compete and developer mind share
was lost. So they are going from depending on Oracle
to Adobe. That doesn't sound like a good idea to me.
One idea would be fun to see… could you make those pies reflect the actual dollar value? ie the 2010 pie that much bigger than it is compared to that 2007 pie? Just asking 😀 Thanks again! I was waiting thins piece of information 🙂
There's more ways to see this data, stay tuned.
Can't wait! 😀
Thanks for the EBIT breakout!
This is quite awesome. I wonder what's going through the minds of the execs at Nokia, Samsung, LG, RIM, SE and Motorola when they see this. The funny thing is that the execs at Google and Microsoft must be feeling helpless as well since they really can't control what these handset makers do with their OS platforms. All they can really hope to do over the short-term is steal share from each other before any one of 'em can focus on Apple. How do these handset makers differentiate their wares from all the other vendors offering the same Android and WP7 phones?
I can only imagine that Motorola disappearing off the face of the earth is mostly because they never came up with a good successor to the RAZR. Now they're trying to play catch up in the smartphone market, but that was never their thing.
iPhone’s initial entry into the market validated the smartphone category and gave RIM a huge boost, while iPhone had limited distribution during its first year. But the failure of the Storm and Storm 2 has now hurt RIM because people have gotten used to the advantages of the physical-keyboardless-&-large-display smartphones, and RIM has no competitive product. The two-for-one deals look less enticing, especially since Android phones have the same offer. Thus, RIM’s unit growth now lags the smartphone market. But for now, RIM, being all-smartphone in a smartphone-hypergrowth market, can still outpace those who also make featurephones.
Nice work Horace!
Apple’s disruption of the Mobile business is astoundong – from 0 to 50% of total Industry profits in 3.25 years. Are there any comparable cases that exist?! This will be a Classic Business School case for many years to come.
Great work Horace.
Sorry to interfer with the discussion on strategy, but I've seen pie charts like yours a lot, and they never really made sense to me as is: I would have preferred to see market share on one axis and Ebit margin on another, to see the total Ebit as an area — comparing visually niche vs. mass in one glance.
I couldn't find a software to draw it properly, so I hacked it a bit, using the data I could copy from your charts (rounding errors probably made this quite off): https://docs.google.com/drawings/pub?id=17yq04q3o…
Does this chart make more sense to you? Should I plot it using log-scales to make the red curve more sensible? Would year-to-year comparison on this format make more sense?
One thing that this curve does is point at how Motorola isn't doing so good.
I'll work on this representation. There is more data coming also. It will take many articles to present all the quarter's data.
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One thing I’ve learned in business is: the status quo is a bad indicator for the future.
Sony entered the gaming world and no one gave them a chance, but they came and dominated. Nintendo had lost its gaming touch and a recovery wasn’t likely, or so they said. Now it’s Sony that lost its touch and Nintendo is racking in the profits on its bestselling Wii.
Apple was set to dominate the pc world as we approached the nineties, but a couple of years later it was Microsoft that was dominating. 10 years ago Apple was more likely to go bust then dominate an industry. Look at them now!
Motorola with its Razr was hot and couldn’t keep up with demand. Fast forward a few years and Motorola has “lost its touch”. Enter the Droid and Motorola is back in the game again.
Nokia dominated, and still do if you only look at market share. Now, according to the Media and all the so called "analysts", it’s a has-been and not likely to recover. Apple is set to dominate the mobile computing world for the foreseeable future. Sounds familiar..
If Apple kicked off Steve Jobs as CEO again, it'll sound familiar. Otherwise, NO.
Right. I totally forgot that the infallible Steve Jobs still works there!!
could you, please, estimate the cost of 100% of the sales and cost of 100% of the EBIT which are used in your charts for Q32007 and Q32010? Are you planning to compare the cost of productions between main vendors for the same time periods or do you think that this comparasion doesn't make sence?
A word about methodology: Not all vendors report the same things. This data set comes from a lot of sifting through company financial reports, slides made for presentations to investors, conference call transcripts, brute force modeling using spreadsheets, currency conversion estimates, reconciliation of muddled nomenclature across multiple countries' accounting standards, and some (hopefully small) guesswork. I keep a highly detailed model for Apple but not for other companies, but even for Apple there is quite a bit of inference needed to get clarity. Much of what is most interesting is kept as a secret by companies to protect their strategies and operational plans.
Ir is clear The right way to make business!!! Apple again!!!
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