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How many Lumia phones were sold in the US?

Nielsen and comScore survey US consumers through different methodologies, however they both try to paint a picture of the smartphone patterns of ownership and consumption.

I regularly report on comScore’s data as it’s published on a monthly basis. Nielsen offers updates on a quarterly basis but there is more detail.

The latest report (for Q2) shows smartphone shares by both platform and vendor. The following graph is a treemap built with the Nielsen data:

 

The same data is also plotted below as a pie chart:

I also added the latest comScore mobiLens data in the pie chart to the right.

Note that both surveys agree in the main on the largest platforms. The difference seems to be within a reasonable margin of error. The details available in the Nielsen data are perhaps also interesting. The various Android OEM shares as well as the division between Windows Mobile base and Windows Phone (7) base could provide some insight. Nielsen’s total Windows base adds up to 4.5% while comScore reckons on 4%. Within that total, Nielsen breaks out 3.2% for Windows Mobile and 1.3% for Windows Phone. Within the Windows Phone total, HTC and Samsung are shown as having 0.5% and Nokia 0.3%.

If we then use comScore’s figure for total smartphone users (110 million) then the data would suggest that there are 330k Lumias in use in the US. This would have been accummulated over a sales period of about four months.

  • xynta_man

    Damn, that’s small

  • hplan

    Microsoft is in something of a predicament. Their fundamental interest as a corporation is to keep Windows ubiquitous and essential, across a wide range of devices. However, I suspect that the Windows name is not helping them sell phones at all — no on wants a phone with the baggage that the Windows name carries.

    • FalKirk

      “Their fundamental interest as a corporation is to keep Windows ubiquitous and essential, across a wide range of devices.”-hplan

      That is actually their downfall. Rather than self-disrupt themselves, by defending “Windows everywhere” (instead of Microsoft everywhere) they’ve been unable to innovate out of their self-created box and they’ve been unable to defend themselves against outside disruption.

      Even now, it’s all about Windows everywhere as Microsoft desperately insists that a touch user interface and a mouse user interface are one and the same (PC+). They HAVE to say that because to admit that Touch was fundamentally different from Mouse would be to admit that they had virtually zero market share in the fastest growing segments of tech (Smartphones and Tablets).

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        I don’t understand why a different politic from “windows everywhere” would have disrupted Microsoft. They could have gone like apple with a different operating system for tablets and pc, like they partially did with winrt (the arm version of w8).
        What wrong with that?
        The choice of “windows everywhere” is a choice of compatibility with existing software. They believe that the cost and the time of software development are to big to allow a new platform to go with it’s only legs.
        The force of windows is compatibility, the software ecosystem will win it all. So every new o.s., no matter the input method, no matter the computer form or size, must be compatible with legacy software.
        That’s not a bad reasoning, ecosystems do matter, but also loosing compatibility is not a problem for them, windows rt is not compatible. They just don’t want to choose what’s best, they will let the market, the customers choose what they want.
        It’s like to let customer do a lottery, if they choose compatibility (w8 on intel) they will have an ecosystems of app that works badly with touch, if they choose winrt all apps will be new and created for touch, but if few choose rt than few apps will be created. Come on try your luck.
        But the input method or the ecosystem if not the disruption that is happening and Microsoft does not seem to get it. The revolution is between complex computer/user interaction against simple computer/user interaction.
        What apple has understood is that the new input method, multitouch, has allowed to create a completely new model of interaction with computers, a simpler one, requiring a new o.s. different from the past and new apps, written from void, just to implement the new cognitive model of interaction.
        Microsoft keeping compatibility is keeping complex interaction within their products and also winrt is bound to the old windows screen for some functions, is interaction model is a compromise between old and new and does not fit well in a post-pc world.
        So it is not a problem of “windows everywhere” politic (keeping compatibility is not a bad thing) it is a problem of not going with the new model of simple interaction and so missing the future of mainstream computer’s use (while for certain activities the complex interaction will remain).

      • AK

        > The choice of “windows everywhere” is a choice of compatibility with existing software.

        With what existing software did “Windows Mobile” and “Windows Phone” need to be compatible with ?

      • AK

        > The choice of “windows everywhere” is a choice of compatibility with existing software.

        With what existing software did “Windows Mobile” and “Windows Phone” need to be compatible with ?

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        Wp8 will require new programs ok, but w8 on pc and intel tablets will be compatible with existing software.

      • Tatil_S

        I don’t remember seeing anybody using an iPad with a keyboard paired to it. Hence, tablets are unlikely to be “practically” compatible with existing software. Convertible laptops may be a different game, but they have not been all that popular up to now.

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        That’s because iPad software it’s made for multitouch, a tablet with w8 will be’ compatible with existing Windows software and will require a keyboard and a touchpad just to use this software. I agree this seems not a popular feature but that’s Microsoft choiche.

      • Tatil_S

        Hence, the “practically” compatible part my comment. People who buy tablets buy them for a touch interface. They are not going to carry keyboards and mice with them, so their tablets will not be compatible with those programs in practice.

      • http://twitter.com/SirThoreth Jason M. Donahue

        Apple doesn’t go with a different OS between PC and tablets/phones: both iOS and OS X are running the same Darwin-derived core OS and kernel, with a different UI on top of it, and the necessary APIs for each.
        That *is* the strategy Microsoft is switching to: prior to Windows Phone 8, all previous Windows-based phones ran Windows CE as their core OS. Windows Phone 8, like Windows RT and Windows 8, will use the Windows NT kernel, but with a different UI: the phone version of the Metro interface for WP8, the tablet version for WinRT, and the hybrid standard/Metro used by the x86 version of Windows 8 for desktops and laptops.

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        It’s not a matter of how many code is in common between os, they are different os from users and programmers point of view

      • Wilhelm Reuch

        No they are not. I write apps that run on both. I can choose to run exactly the same everything on the iPad. But normally you adjust view-resources and some code to optimize for the different use cases.

        A phone you should be able to use with one hand while on the move. A pad you are normally using with two hands while at least standing still.

        You are not technically required to have separate resources but if you want to deliver the best product you have to. This goes for any operating system.

      • Andy Bolstridge

        yes, but MS has got the concept right – a single codebase for both, but they haven’t understood that you need different UIs for the 2 platforms. This is where Apple won, they reuse all the code but still provide a appropriate UI for the different devices.

      • Davel

        I think the key difference between Microsoft and Apple is their customer. Apple’s customer is the consumer. Microsoft’s customer is the developer, the system integrator and the enterprise. This drives what solution you offer. For Apple this is simplicity. You makes things simple and repeatable. For Microsoft it is about flexibility. You don’t know what the problem is so you solve for all. This increases complexity. This is ok for their customer as they are set up to handle it as long as they can deliver the solution.

        Both companies deliver what their clients want.

        This is why I have a problem with Microsoft’s approach. I haven’t played with win 8, but they are reportedly integrating mouse/keyboard, Metro and Kinnect. Can they build an API to handle all? Sure.

        Can they do it so that the resulting interface is simple and coherent? I don’t think so. They are delivering a solution for their clients to work with, but this doesn’t mean the resulting product will be pleasing.
        The thing that makes iOS such a pleasure to use is that they thought about the interface. Is it missing things? Sure. Can it be improved? Absolutely. But it is coherent and what it does it does well. Microsoft is not making a choice, they will let their Clint’s choose the best solution.

      • Wilhelm Reuch

        I have a machine here running Win8 and I think your are on the spot here. The interface makes for nice looking screen-shots but in practice it is messy.

        As a developer I have to make a choice. For me iOS/OSX is first – it is just such a pleasure to work with. I am adding a second mobile SDK to my personal toolkit but despite being a long time C++ developer I now think Android, not the C++ based WinRT-framework of Win8 Metro.

      • Davel

        Wilhelm

        Thank you for your comment. It is good to know someone else’s perspective.

      • aaarrrgggh

        The downfall of Windows Everywhere is that MS had several projects that could have made an impact in the phone space, but they withered on the vine without core support from manangement. Notice how they don’t do that with the XBox.
        There would have been nothing wrong with creating a teenager brand smartphone and integrate it with hotmail or whatever (back in the day), but you have to build on the business. The end-all-be-all solution is a challenge when you are clearly not in a market-leader position.

        Instead, MS tries to make sure its cash cows (Windows + Office) are not disrupted, which makes them miss opportunities.

      • symbolset

        After several years of following your online works I have to say this is the first post I have found that merits unqualified concurrence.

        “I agree.”

        /- Nothing follows. -/

      • Davel

        I don’t see how you can refute that the touch interface is different from the mouse. This is one of the key reasons for the downfall of RIMM.

  • Dan

    Not enough to keep their barge afloat.

  • jameskatt

    So what you are telling us is that:

    1. 2,750 Nokia Lumia Phones are sold every day in the U.S.
    2. Compare that to the 100,000 iPhones that are sold every day in the U.S. or the 390,000 iPhones sold every day around the world.
    3. Nokia is fine as long as it is a small boutique company.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      That would also mean about one Lumia phone sold per AT&T retail outlet per day.

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        Or, since I suppose a significant number of Lumia were bought in small zones, I am thinking at Microsoft employes for instance, it means that several retail outlets never sold one Lumia phone at all?

      • Canucker

        Maybe that’s what Stephen Elop meant when he said that Lumia sales in the US were exceeding expectations. He expected 0.5 devices to be sold per store?

        http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2012/04/nokias-lumia-is-selling-well-in-the-us-but-nowhere-else/

      • Avatar Roku

        Nielsen has sent out a message stating these numbers are inaccurate.

        “Update: Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market. They added that they therefore “do not feel the 300,000 number is accurate”.”

        The T-Mobile blog recently stated that the Lumia 710 has been among their best selling phones for the entire year:

        “The mix of Windows Phone sales among our product portfolio has more
        than doubled in the past eight months with the availability of the Nokia Lumia 710 and HTC Radar 4G. We continue to see strong sales and adoption of the platform with the Nokia Lumia 710 consistently being one of our top five selling smartphones since it launched in January 2012.”

        Canaccord Genuity also says the Lumia 900 has been the second best selling phone at AT&T for April/May and 3rd best selling phone in June. There are various statements from AT&T saying the Lumia 900 has exceeded their sales expectations.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Did Nielsen offer an alternative estimate for Lumias in use based on their total sampled population?

  • UncleAlbert2

    Didn’t the Lumia 800 launch Stateside on February 14th, meaning the sales period is getting on for 6 months now, not four months.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      The data covers end of Q2 and I try to be generous.

  • Tatil_S

    Isn’t it a bit misleading to compare “sales” of a new platform with installed bases of many existing ones? Breakdown of sales during a quarter would be more useful in comparing the success and health of each vendor and platform.

  • Tatil_S

    Isn’t it a bit misleading to compare “sales” of a new platform with installed bases of many existing ones? Breakdown of sales during a quarter would be more useful in comparing the success and health of each vendor and platform.

    • theothergeoff

      or you can look at the accumulation of symbian and say that is “Nokia” (and others, for sure, but that was their game prior to WP), and total that and say that’s their installed base… given that Symbian is EOL, The fact that the (formerly) largest Phoneset maker in the world, paired with Microsoft, the largest SW maker in the world (who from the outset of the ‘smart phone revolution’ stated they had ‘Millions of Windows Mobile Sold’ has no momentum. And Large masses with no momentum take a LOT of energy to get going… I really think WP8 is not enough to get Nokia accelerating into the SmartPhone Space.

      • Tatil_S

        This is the installed base in the US. Symbian never really broke into this market anyways, so it seems, comparatively speaking, WP7 allowed Nokia to be more successful in the US.

        It is not wise to talk about momentum when what you have is just a snapshot, worse, an unfair comparison between accumulated sales of many platforms and one quarter worth of sales of a new platform. Can you tell which way Blackberry’s momentum is carrying it by looking at this graph? If you had a similar graph in May 2008, would you be able to tell whether iPhone had any more momentum than Lumia?

      • Joe_Winfield_IL

        I get your point that the numbers look even worse because there is no installed base, but the iPhone sold around 1.4 million units in its first six months (slightly more than 4x the Lumia sales). This was in a market vastly smaller than what exists today, at a subsidized price of AT LEAST $400 for the base model, with only a single carrier to distribute the device, and no 3G data connection to take advantage of its many unique features.

        There is no conceivable way that these sales data can be spun positively for Lumia.

      • Canucker

        I’m sure Mr Elop will find some spin. Not a lot else he can do. Of course, it’ll be tailspin.

      • theothergeoff

        I think the key thought here is that Microsoft and Nokia are established players in the market (listen to Ballmer in 2007-2009.. he felt Microsoft was THE_LEADER_ in smartphone marketplace). this ‘snapshot’ focusing on the Lumia sales identifies current ‘velocity’ relative to all other products, and this appears to have a slow velocity compared to other product launches of ‘flagship’ phones (iPhone, Nexus, Galaxy) As Joe points out, a good phone/OS experience sells.

        As for Blackberry, no…. but the key element here is that the Lumia is a unique case that the timing parameters (Nokia running WP was released in this window) allows for that analysis of velocity.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      I don’t follow. The installed base for a new release is equivalent to sales. How is it misleading?

      • Tatil_S

        Yes, that is what I meant. The installed base for a new release is equivalent to sales from just the last quarter, but for others it is the sales accumulated over the last two or three years. How can the reader tell how significant a splash Lumia made in the market by just looking at this graph? It is difficult to tell which of these platforms and vendors sold better than the others in the most recent one or two quarters.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        The discussion is not about which platform of vendors sold better than others. There are plenty of posts related to that. This is only about teasing out one number about Lumia. A number which has never been published.

      • Tatil_S

        OK, now I see our point, thanks…

      • Canucker

        Hardly surprising unless you take the attitude of Nokia which, unfortunately, is to take their clients as fools. People do not appreciate buying a device that is EOL’d before its 6 month anniversary. It’s hard to believe that Elop didn’t know about theWP8 plans and lack of upgradability at the time of the Microsoft “deal”. It’s like rebooting a reboot half way through. It’s possible Microsoft kept that information quiet, but more fool Nokia. Must have been some lovely emails between Espoo and Redmond over the past few months. Don’t worry, says Microsoft, if WP8 flops, we’ll have an even better WP9.

      • Simon

        That information regarding its lack of update didn’t become available until well after the launch of Lumia though. Like Nokia’s other recent flagship devices, Lumia just didn’t sell all that well out of gate. It tells me is that Lumia just isn’t desirable enough in its current state even before the update fiasco, quite possibly because WP7 isn’t really that appealing to consumers for whatever reason.

        Another possibility: maybe Lumia’s design language just isn’t connecting all that much with the consumers. It’s highly praised by tech media, but so was the design of WP7.

  • Guest

    Perhaps that’s why they ceased the wp7 o.s. and started with a completely new one called wp8 with which current phones want be compatible and upgradable.
    It seems like wp7 is a new kin. Question is what will be wp8?

  • http://twitter.com/cdhowe Carl Howe

    Another data point corroborating the small figures reported here: We did an online flash survey of just Lumia 900 owners (excluding Lumia 800) in May. The incidence rate we saw in trying to find them was about 0.8 percent, which is in the ballpark of the data presented here. I ascribe differences to the fact that our sample probably had more skew in it than the other surveys — because owners were our target, we weren’t looking for a census representative sample.

    • Avatar Roku

      Nielsen is saying the figures are wrong. Furthermore it does not match up with AT&T and T-Mobile claims that the Lumia is amongst their top 3 best selling phones consistently each month throughout the year.

      “Update: Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have
      been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those
      of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market.
      They added that they therefore “do not feel the 300,000 number is
      accurate”.”

  • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

    Perhaps that’s why Microsoft has ceased wp7 o.s. and started a completely new one called wp8 with which current phones want be compatible or upgradable.
    Wp7 is the new kin. Question is what will be wp8?

    • theothergeoff

      zune?

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        Yep, I understand your point, but techinically that was not a phone.
        This year Microsoft will debut with two new o.s. w8 and wp8, one self made tablet that is only a reference point to which they are completely committed (uhm) and a bunch of tablets and phone with partners.
        One o.s. wp8 is a radical change from the past, the other w8 is a fusion of past and future, of complex interaction and simple interaction.
        They see the data of wp7 and they surely decided to fight harder, but I am afraid without a clear vision of how to fight back.

      • Joe_Winfield_IL

        Agree completely! And you forgot to include w8RT, which is a radical change from the past applied to a new product category that MS claims is just a subset of the same old PC.

        MS is systematically (if accidentally) dismantling the monolith that is Windows. Much easier for rivals to compete with three MS operating systems than one. They are killing their own monopoly without disrupting it!

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        Exactly, but I see them as shy. They haven’t choose what will be the future and will be best for their customers. They have chosen to do three o.s., launch them and see what happens.
        One solution is continuity with past maintaining compatibility on both touch and non touch devices, forcing software to be used unoptimized on both type of hardware.
        The other is going without compatibility and touch only, winrt.
        That’s a good thing if you have the force to push strong on all solutions, but they have not.
        Fearing that old windows users will skip the touch interface, they have forced metro as the new interface for all solutions, resulting in a steep learning curve for old user, so incrementing complexity instead of diminish it.
        Fearing a completely new world they have chained winrt to the old windows desktop, leaving complexity without compatibility, the silliest thing.
        Fearing low quality work from oems they have choose to integrate hw and sw, but fearing oems reactions they have also choose not to push the new tablet selling it only online and making two different models that will confuse users.
        They are dropping in pieces without a clear vision of where to go and how to go there.
        Ballmer is a man of numbers, he is just trowing a bunch of different solutions on the market and he is getting ready to follow hard what numbers will tell is the right solution. He has no idea of what market will require.
        That’s normal when innovating, but MS is not innovating, it is just following without a clear idea of what to follow.

      • Joe_Winfield_IL

        Tor bring it back to one of Horace’s favorite points – Microsoft is not doing a “job to be done” analysis at all. Ballmer thinks Windows is a Highlander (one OS to rule them all), but the reality of 2012 is far more complex. The company’s many flavors of Windows attempt to be optimized for different use cases (good start!) while somehow maintaining a common identity and interoperability (fail). Unfortunately, calling each OS “Windows” does not make them all into one unified product.

      • Canucker

        Microsoft has had the money in the bank to survive previous painful mistakes/experiments. They’ve become immune to failures and brush off the hurt. I see this as a form of numbness. The ~$6 billion on-line ad company write-off is a good example (of many). However, the money in the bank comes from the Windows franchise and that’s what is being thrown at the wall this time to see if it sticks. There will be no going back. You cannot hedge your bets when you’ve only one horse to back.

      • Walt French

        “Exactly, but I see them as shy.”

        Let me compliment your charming writing.

        As I *also* thought when Mr. Dedieu wrote that Microsoft was “patient.” It is obvious that Microsoft is trying hard to leverage its assets as they muster up a response to the smartphone revolution (and now, the ultra-mobile one of Apple’s MacBookAir and the iPad). Somebody MUST have listed up all their strengths and weaknesses, drawn up a battle plan and created what we see today.

        Hopefully, they really had data that showed the Windows brand was a positive in the consumer space. My own impression is the opposite, that “Windows” is the reason my IT people have to reboot my machine a couple times a week and that I, a computer user since 1966, could never hope to properly maintain at home.

        Instead, it seems that some nearly unpardonable shortcuts were taken, and those have had dire consequences for Nokia, particularly I think that somebody at the very top of Microsoft insisted that they not deprecate the brand, which could cause the implosion of the firm, and that the need to get product on the street in 2012 trumped what would happen when customers & salespeople grokked that the devices were NOT enthusiastically supported—most obviously, were EOL before they were introduced, as they also did with the Kin.

        Maybe indeed Nokia, Microsoft & AT&T got behind the phones with a big ad push. (I don’t watch enough TV to have seen any.) To me, the product always had the scent of failure behind it, from the language used at introduction to the immediate lack of clarity about the upgrade path.

        Well, too bad for Nokia. I hope they can survive the body blow to their finances and reputation, and look forward to the exposé in which it’s revealed what Mr. Elop said when he first found out that no WP7 device would get WP8, and when that was.

        At least with the Surface, Microsoft has it closely tied enough to their bread-and-butter business that they can see lots of sunlight at the end of that tunnel. Consumers are more likely to be deeply suspicious, I’d guess, however.

      • Davel

        The upgrade of the phone issue was suspicious. It seems as they were purposefully mute on this issue.

        It has been suggested that Lumia has been used to get thebWindows Phone word out. This has been successful.

        The question is has it bought the companies enough time for the win 8 rollout? Will Nokia be successful? Will sales ramp up quickly enough to save the company? Will there be enough compelling applications and content for Windows mobile for consumers to care about Microsoft in the phone space or will they continue to ignore them?

      • APai

        they burned the only people willing to buy a windows phone. i am not sure how this will pan out for both windows and Nokia!

      • theothergeoff

        Ballmer isn’t a numbers guy… he’s a salesman (Apple’s Cook is a numbers guy). But the rest of your description is valid. He want 8 versions of a car (sedan, coupe, roadster, SUV, all with automatic and manual transmission), because with options he can sell you one of those.

      • Avatar Roku

        All of Microsoft’s platforms are now for the first time ever aligned on the same NT kernel using the WinRT development environment.

        In the 90’s Microsoft had Windows CE, Windows NT and Windows 9x. So to say that Windows is split now like never before is completely inaccurate and the reverse of the truth.

        Having WinRT and Windows NT kernel on every single Windows device for the first time ever means the various WIndows platforms are more unified than ever before in history. Sharing code, APIs and capabilities and porting apps between all Windows platforms is going to be easier than at any point in history.

        In terms of code portability Windows Phone 8 apps = Windows RT apps = Windows 8 apps. They may also be Xbox “720” apps as well if Microsoft extends WinRT environment to Xbox. A Windows developer can now write an app once and easily port it between all Windows devices.

      • Joe_Winfield_IL

        You make it sound as if, by virtue of a shared kernel, almost all aspects of all Windows systems will be interchangeable. To use a sports metaphor, it is as if changing among RT, Phone and Win8 will be as simple as players on a team changing among home, visitor, and alternate uniforms. But if Microsoft believes the UI is only a surface layer, easily changed, the company is due for a lot of pain.

        It is not by accident that Apple has chosen to segregate touch-based iOS applications from OS X mouse and keyboard ones. The usage of each is so fundamentally different that any attempt to merge touch with click comes off as half-baked; both input methods end up feeling awkward. Instead, applications need to be reimagined from the ground up to take advantage of the unique strengths of the individual OS. This is one reason why there is almost no overlap between the top apps on the Mac App Store and the iOS App Store, save the the Apple productivity apps (which are tailor made for their devices).

        We are talking about two completely different aspects of the OS. You are addressing the system architecture, the back-end. I’m talking about what users see and experience. I agree that unifying behind the NT kernel was appropriate (maybe necessary) if they want to succeed, but it does not detract from my argument that Windows purchasing decisions are made more complicated through Microsoft’s simultaneous decision to create Windows in 27 different versions. Users want to have a library of applications that “just work” on all of their devices, and the Windows strategy does not make this objective easy to accomplish.

      • Joe_Winfield_IL

        You make it sound as if, by virtue of a shared kernel, almost all aspects of all Windows systems will be interchangeable. To use a sports metaphor, it is as if changing among RT, Phone and Win8 will be as simple as players on a team changing among home, visitor, and alternate uniforms. But if Microsoft believes the UI is only a surface layer, easily changed, the company is due for a lot of pain.

        It is not by accident that Apple has chosen to segregate touch-based iOS applications from OS X mouse and keyboard ones. The usage of each is so fundamentally different that any attempt to merge touch with click comes off as half-baked; both input methods end up feeling awkward. Instead, applications need to be reimagined from the ground up to take advantage of the unique strengths of the individual OS. This is one reason why there is almost no overlap between the top apps on the Mac App Store and the iOS App Store, save the the Apple productivity apps (which are tailor made for their devices).

        We are talking about two completely different aspects of the OS. You are addressing the system architecture, the back-end. I’m talking about what users see and experience. I agree that unifying behind the NT kernel was appropriate (maybe necessary) if they want to succeed, but it does not detract from my argument that Windows purchasing decisions are made more complicated through Microsoft’s simultaneous decision to create Windows in 27 different versions. Users want to have a library of applications that “just work” on all of their devices, and the Windows strategy does not make this objective easy to accomplish.

      • theothergeoff

        Technically WP7 is not a phone… as was the Kin.

        One subtle point on the Zune… It also cut partners (Playforsure) out at the knees.

        WP8 is ‘yet another’ radical change (7.0 was a radical change from 6.x with no upgrade path, with 6.5 as some sort of ‘half step’ [like 7.8]). If anything Microsoft has a habit of hamstringing their current Phone OS when they announce a new one. As a _developer_ I fear developing for a platform that EOLs every 1-2 years. As a consumer, I want compelling apps. This pattern makes for no consumer appeal.

        I agree there is no clear vision… their never has been.. Microsoft has lived in a world where they were needed as an OS to run the apps that are necessary to stuff… but with the web and mobility, they couldn’t lead that market. The key point is… The user’s expectation of the HW+experience drives Software. And if you depend on the Market to define experience, you’ll end up with 50 different variants (why are there 5 ways a user can close a window in XP?), and supporting all of them. Hence the 3.5 OSes they (WP8, Win8[+ hooks to supporting their tablet version], and Win8RT) to get to ‘Windows Everywhere’

      • N8nnc

        Microsoft has never thrived through vision, but by monopoly. Gorilla tactics, not guerilla, and never much strategy beyond keep audience captive & kill competitors.

      • Avatar Roku

        WP7 apps are compatible with WP8 devices so the 100,000+ apps for Windows Phone are available on WP8 on day one.

        This is a completely different situation than the move from Windows Mobile 6 to Windows Phone 7.

        Kin and Zune were one-off devices that offered no app ecosystem compatibility at all. The comparisons are completely invalid. Furthermore Windows Phone 8 is built upon the same code base as Windows PC for the first time. This offers an unprecedented level of code compatibility between Phone and PC for the first time ever.

        I wish people could be smarter about the whole process from a technical perspective. Obviously the addition of native code support and DirectX compatibility makes Windows Phone 8 a much more serious challenger to iOS and Android. Unfortunately many people come at this discussion from a very ignorant standpoint that what happened to a bunch of Windows CE devices (Windows Mobile, Kin, WP7) is destined to be repeated with the first ever Windows NT phone. WP8 is something significantly different from a technical perspective than anything that has been accomplished before by Microsoft.

      • Davel

        Yes you offer the Windows value proposition which is compelling. What is not compelling is the varied interfaces that the user has to deal with. Do they deal with the legacy mouse interface and the increasing screen size on small form factors ( I am ignoring Kinnect here)? Or do they use the Metro interface which is relatively new?

        As a developer how do you design your interface?

      • http://twitter.com/WalterMilliken Walter Milliken

        Looking at Microsoft’s history, I suspect they may be thinking of Windows 8/Metro as being similar to the DOS/Windows transition. In both cases, they layered an entirely new interface on top of their existing product, with the intent of keeping their old customers happy while chasing a hot new UI paradigm. The first time it worked, they may not see a difference this time.

        Not being a Windows user, I’m not sure what drove the initial transition from DOS to Windows, though I’d venture a guess it was Office being a “killer app” on Windows. They may think this will work again.

      • http://www.isophist.com/ Emilio Orione

        Perhaps, but I believe the new office will be traditional not metro. Traditional office is the main reason for Windows desktop on winrt. If ms first don’t convert to metro is incredible.

      • http://twitter.com/WalterMilliken Walter Milliken

        I suspect you’re correct… if Office isn’t Metro-ized, then I don’t see a strong driver to the new UI, unless they reveal a new killer app that’s Metro-only. So far there doesn’t seem to be any sign of this that I’ve seen.

      • Noah Berlove

        Mobility is the killer app and I don’t think MS really get this yet.

      • Rob

        As I saw while working in software retail at the time, Windows 3.0 was the turning point for one simple reason; unlike previous versions of Windows, Microsoft licensed it to computer hardware manufacturers so it came pre-installed on new “IBM compatible” computers, just as MS-DOS before it had. Office took longer to catch on, but benefited from strategic missteps made by WordPerfect, Ashton-Tate, and Lotus Development in the aftermath of the split between IBM and Microsoft over OS/2.

      • http://twitter.com/WalterMilliken Walter Milliken

        Actually I was thinking of what was driving users to use Windows over DOS, not what vendors chose to ship — i.e., why did people start using Windows versus the still-supported DOS interface in the early versions? Did people just use it because it was there? Or because Office required learning that new-fangled mouse-GUI stuff?

        The more important question for Microsoft is, will the Windows 8 users switch over to Metro (making it credible that they can transition eventually to a light-weight version of Windows with better battery life on mobiles), or will they stick to legacy Windows (which suggest Microsoft won’t actually get any traction in the market where iPad sells)? If the users stick to the old thing, it seems like Microsoft will have a shrinking specialized market with the number-crunching heavy Excel users, somewhat like Apple did in the graphics arts side in the 1990s.

      • kpom

        People started using Windows 3.0 because it was the first version of Windows that actually (sort of) worked. The GUI was bound to win out over the character-based interface of DOS. However, Macs were even more expensive back then (even PCs routinely were $1500-$3000 machines back then, in 1990 dollars), and so the emergence of a viable, more affordable alternative to the Mac was very appealing.

      • Rob

        Windows 3 made software development easier in a number of important ways, too. The addition of printing services and hardware device driver APIs alone were huge boons, shifting the onus of developing printer drivers from each individual MS-DOS software vendor to the printer manufacturers. Then there was its monolithic memory map, as opposed to the mess of bank-switched expanded memory. And with almost every PC sold having a copy of Windows preinstalled, the previous “chicken and egg” issues earlier versions of Windows had otherwise were neatly sidestepped.

      • http://twitter.com/PaulMaxime Paul Franceus

        Missteps by competitors? You can’t be serious! Have you never heard “the job’s not done ’til Lotus won’t run.” Microsoft leveraged their position as OS vendor to favor their own applications over others.

  • http://twitter.com/ToddbboT ToddbboT

    Does the tepid response to Metro 7 as a phone interface tell us anything about the upcoming rerelease of Metro as the front end to Win8/WinRT/WinPhone8? Is it that MS and Nokia Osborned Win7 phone so we should ignore that data? Or should there be real fear for MS shareholders of a coming train wreck? MS is obviously expecting consumers to go “Wow! Look at this awesome new user interface!”

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      The launch performance is a function of many factors. For products which don’t gain a large amount of buzz (i.e. earned media exposure), the biggest however might be operator promotional activity (i.e. paid media exposure). I recall that the launch of Lumia in the US was heavily endorsed by AT&T and Microsoft as well as Nokia with a large promotional budget. It’s telling that the promotion and sales staff incentives did not create significant sales volumes.

      • http://twitter.com/counterblow the person

        save your fuzzy math dude and just wait for the numbers next week. You have all weekend to write an explanation for how you missed it so bad.

      • Canucker

        What’s more telling is the Verizon already wrote off WP7 in April and announced that it is re-trenching to back WP8 for the Holidays. Why, exactly, would they ignore their current product unless its sales were cratering?

        http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/19/us-verizon-microsoft-idUSBRE83I1B820120419

      • http://www.twitter.com/wixostrix WixosTrix

        Verizon has put forth zero effort to sell their single Windows Phone. They have no one to blame for lack of sales but themselves. If you’re referring to Lumia sales cratering, what makes you think Nokia is disclosing that information to them?

      • Canucker

        Wasn’t talking about the Lumia’s (which Verizon doesn’t sell) but Windows Phone 7. Since the HTC Trophy is a WP7 device, not upgradable to WP8, Verizon clearly doesn’t give a hoot about WP7 and has written the WP7 platform off. The lack of sales are not limited to Lumia models.

      • http://www.twitter.com/wixostrix WixosTrix

        Understandable, but even when the Trophy came out and there wasn’t much news about WP8, Verizon, like most other US carriers did virtually nothing to push Windows Phone. Lack of sales is due to lack of awareness. The majority of people who has seen my Windows Phones liked them a lot, but before I explained what it was to them, they had no idea it was something completely different from the other smartphones. When I had my Samsung Focus, nobody knew what that thing was. I got questions like “Which Android phone is that?” and “Is that a Droid?” It’s gotten better since the introduction of the Lumia 900. People actually seem to know it exists, but it’s still unclear if they understand what it is.

      • symbolset

        It’s not Verizon’s job to push Windows Phones against their credible and equally profitable alternatives. It’s Windows Phone’s job to drive customers to Verizon over other vendors and make the product worthwhile to carry. Windows Phones aren’t carrying their end of the load.

      • http://www.just-the-reverse.com/ David Pinto

        Don’t you think that if Microsoft is about to buy Nokia, as many unofficial sources say, could have bigger deal to let her die than helping to increase Lumia sales?

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        No, I don’t think it makes sense to destroy the value of that which you hope to buy later. But more importantly, I don’t think Microsoft has any intention to buy Nokia.

      • symbolset

        Launch marketing budget for Windows Phone was widely cited at $500M for the first year and it was likely more. IDC estimated an opportunity of 40 million unit sales for launch year, which was used to encourage carriers to invest in inventory that did not sell. Credible reports have actual sales at less than the COGS for the phones, given that number for marketing – they may as well have given them away free off contract instead of paying marketing. With each “wait for next version” announcement retailers bought more inventory that did not sell. Those dreams turned to mist, and the promises didn’t happen to come with a guarantee. $1B/yr in Nokia payments are turning to nothing volumes, as they don’t even show up in Nielsen numbers that report 0.2% fractions for US sales.

        Carriers and retailers are tired of this story now. They have kids to put through college, investor retirement plans to feed. Retailers are in a “show me” state, that doesn’t bode well for future volume ramps for WP8. A lot of them would like to sell back their dusty WP7 inventory at a minimal loss – or even a major loss, and the more of that weight they carry the less they’re willing to invest in the next version. They guy who sold that stuff in (Robert Williams) is gone now, as he must be as new promises must be made and the guy who made old broken promises won’t be credible making new ones. He earned his money well, and goes to Amazon now. Retailers have profitable Android handset options they don’t have to push to sell, and iPhones if they can get them that draw people in whether they buy iPhones or not.

        This is actually the planned process for executive rehab at Microsoft: for a failed executive to go out, infiltrate a major competitor and make it fail and bring its corpse back to Redmond. History is replete with examples including Sendo.

        Microsoft has burned a lot of bridges to seem credible in the modern mobile marketplace. It remains to be seen if they have a bridge left that leads to tomorrow. I don’t think so, but that is my own opinionated guess – not an assertion of fact. This link though may be interesting. It is proof that many knew Windows Phone was failing even as Stephen Elop bought into it: https://bitly.com/gl6Fom Add + to the end of the link to see historical hit data for proof that this was well known.

    • poke

      I think Metro makes WP7 phones look like feature phones. The look is based on glossy magazines and it’s difficult to imagine what a highly-interactive app would look like in it. iOS uses many elements that are familiar to computer users and they suggest greater functionality and potential.

      Microsoft caught onto something with the (inscrutable) notion that Metro is somehow more “digital” and it has been propped up in the skeuomorphism backlash among pundits, but it obviously hasn’t inspired customers.

      • Aenean144

        That’s an interesting way to put it. The tile interface in WP7 seemed terribly off to me due to its asymmetry and low information density (feature phone like as you say). Then, with the differing tile sizes in arbitrary locations, it violates some visual design principles for presenting multiples.

        Ugh. Ugly.

        The high contrast menu and text design is nice, except for the stupid letter chopping.

        It’s interesting that they can’t seem to gain traction even downmarket with near-feature phone prices. Necessarily, they have to be downmarket as WP7 phones ship with single core and lower resolution displays. Still, interesting that they can’t seem to gain traction.

      • http://twitter.com/grzegorz_maj Grzegorz Maj

        I think that iOS and Android are closer to feature phones thanks to its icons grid. Is it better to cram more content on small space? What design rule this statement follows? I confirm that Metro can be perceived as dull – but in longer use it is better because only important stuff is visible, tiles are perceived just as background.

      • Huffer07

        Today’s smart phone screens aren’t really “small space” anymore. That’s exactly why you want to “cram more content” on today’s phone screens. The Metro screens don’t appear to have any respect for today’s larger phone screens. No matter how large your phone screen is, Metro treats it like a small feature phone screen.

      • Huffer07

        I know a lot of people who are turned off by the Metro home screen. Garish colors, odd shaped blocks, hogs up screen real estate.

  • http://twitter.com/soyroberto roberto シ

    Only 330K phones in the US, how many of those belong to people that actually works for Microsoft, considering that there, there’s around 20K employees? Doesn’t look good at all. But this is their way, try,try and keep trying, problem is that competitors are too far away and the name of the game is not Windows

  • pekka37

    Maybe Nielsen start collicting data already in april ? (for installed base)
    Nokia Lumia started selling att ATT in april

  • niilolainen

    Given Nokia’s huge marketing spend in the US, with that taken into account, any idea what the operating margin per Lumia handset sold here would be?

    • capnbob67

      Marketing spend wasn’t as great as early headlines would have us believe but the low price, large number of returns for the LTE problem and unknown subsidy suggest Lumias won’t be in the Apple or Samsung ballpark. Lumia ASP was estimated at $286 in April (including lower end 610/710 and 800s) This may have risen with the 900 but probably not much (since it was a $400 phone). My guess would be thin margins (but still better than Symbian/Asha’s).

  • Tom

    Lumia 900 has been the second best selling handset April and May according to Canaccord Genuity. HTC One X only overtook it in June. Also Kantar shows WP7 marketshare 3% 12 weeks ending June 10th compared to 1.8% a year ago.

    iPhone has also been outselling whole Android lineup on Verizon and AT&T for last quarters according to operator statements 2:1 on AT&T in Q1.. both comScore and Nielsen use web surveys to come up with their numbers not real numbers at all.

    • normm

      I watched Lumia 900 sales on Amazon during that period, and it never reached above #6 in Cell Phones with Service Plan there (Lumia 900 Black reached #6 when Cyan was around #20; they’re currently at #13 and #27 respectively). The 900 was consistently behind even the Blackberry Curve.

      • pekka37

        I watched sales in april on amazon, Lumia 900 was number 1 for almost 3 weeks
        they also reached number 27 on the overall list called Cell Phones & Accessories. Extremly good!
        As compared with todays number 1 Samsung Nexus , witch is only 268 on that list

      • Walt French

        I’m not sure we know what fraction of Americans buy phones thru Amazon, so these numbers are pretty hard to interpret. Yes, a flurry of interest in April. But then… ?

      • capnbob67

        It is estimated that 80% of phones in the US are sold by carriers. The other 20% is going to be a lot of Best Buy, RadioShack, Apple Stores, Walmart, etc. There is not much room for Amazon to be relevant (with all the other online guys like Wirefly)

      • pekka37

        Tero Kuittinen thinks amazon sales stats are indeed relevant.. He is a writer at Forbes and telecom analyst
        just do a google search
        “tero kuittinen nokia lumia”

      • Avatar Roku

        And AT&T channel checks show that the Lumia 900 was the 2nd best selling phone on AT&T in April and May; the 3rd best selling phone on AT&T in June. The Lumia 710 has been in the top sellers according to T-mobile for the entire year.

        So either every phone in the industry that isn’t iPhone is bombing or the Lumia phones are selling well relative to most smartphones.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      The data you cite is not necessarily inconsistent with the survey data.

      • pekka37

        dear mr dediu, could you comment my question
        “Maybe Nielsen start collecting data already in april ? (for installed base)
        Nokia Lumia started selling att ATT in april”
        posted earlier

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        I can’t speak for Nielsen or comScore. There is plenty of room for interpretation of these results. The only thing we can say with certainty is that Microsoft and Nokia and AT&T all know exactly how many Lumia phones were sold and/or activated on a weekly if not daily basis. None of them have ever given us any data points.

      • http://twitter.com/tomwarren Tom Warren
      • http://bergie.iki.fi/ Henri Bergius

        @twitter-12273252:disqus weren’t those numbers you’re quoting for the whole world, and for all WP7 vendors? The Nielsen numbers in this article are US-only.

      • Avatar Roku

        The Nielsen numbers aren’t even sales numbers at all. They’re a survey with rough percentage estimates. (Which in light of other data we have are likely incorrect as well). It’s hard to measure the actual market share of a small platform since so few people actually show up in a random survey. The margin of error for percentage of market share for Windows Phone is probably +/- 3%. And when you’re talking about 1% share that’s a large enough margin of error to make the entire stat nearly worthless. Essentially a random guess.

        “Update: Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have
        been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those
        of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market.
        They added that they therefore “do not feel the 300,000 number is
        accurate”.”

        And yet here are dozens of people falling over themselves to analyze the meaning of a random surveyed guess of Windows Phone sales that don’t match up at all with the claimed sales strength of the Lumia products at both AT&T and T-mobile. If Lumia is topping the sales charts at every US carrier they release their phones on then the only problem Nokia really has in the US is getting their phones out on more carriers.

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        These numbers are not referring to the Lumia phone.

      • Walt French

        News Flash!!! Microsoft’s VP of Marketing for WinPhone and Microsoft’s Senior Product Manager both want you to know how fabulously well WP is moving.

        Note however that your headline nhese numbers appear to be worldwide, not inconsistent with the number that is so shocking many here.

      • http://twitter.com/EdwinZuidema Edwin Zuidema

        For me the interpretation is the following:
        The operators want a level playing field between the platforms, so they are eager to promote WP to become the third platform. They can make up rules to get the Windows phones in a top 3.
        Nielsen does not know the real number, stays vague on percentages as they want to stay friends with Microsoft.
        Nokia does not want to publish the number, as it sucks.
        Microsoft continues with Nokia until either Samsung or Huawei/ZTE come up with a competitive model and will start pushing that model, finally being able to show that they are not married to Nokia.
        Who needs more interpretation? ;-)

    • Josh

      So the iPhone has been outselling all combined Android phones on the US’s 2 largest carriers, but somehow the Lumia 900 and HTC One X both have more sales???

      I would love to hear that explanation…

      • http://twitter.com/cyuzna Conan Yuzna

        Here’s the explanation: He said SECOND best selling.
        Did you love to hear that as much as you thought you would?

        Note: Just realized that there is an edit button, so it’s possible that it didn’t say that when you replied.

  • http://www.intomobile.com/ Stefan Constantinescu

    The Nielsen data shows the smartphone market in terms of install base during Q2, not in terms of sales recorded in Q2. Nokia launched the Lumia 710 in the USA on T-Mobile on January 11th. As for the Lumia 900, that hit the market on April 8th on AT&T.

    So using the data above, your statement that 330,000 Lumia units were sold is indeed correct, but those sales didn’t take place over 4 months, they took place over 6 months + 2 weeks.

    Either way, the numbers are terrible. I can not wait to see what numbers Nokia publishes next Thursday (July 19th) for Q2 2012!

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      I’m trying to be generous. There have been several launches and it’s arguable which was the sales start date which was backed with significant marketing muscle. We also need to keep in mind the margin of error. It’s such a small number that it probably represents a handful of respondents to the survey.

    • http://twitter.com/akchaudh akcme

      This whole analysis is wrong, wrong and it couldn’t be more wrong.
      Here is the deal
      AT&T employees: 256,420
      Stores: 6000+
      Microsoft Employees: 92,000
      Bestbuy stores: 1000+
      Costco: 415+
      Walmart: 3890+
      Amazon:
      Lets do a calculation:
      1/10 of AT&T employees got Lumia 900 =256420/10 = 25642
      each at&t store sold 10 phones a month = 10x6000x3month = 180000
      1/100 MS employee got Lumia 900 =92000/100 =920
      each Bestbuy sold 3 phones a month =1000x3x3month=
      each Costco sold 3 phones a month = 415x3x3month=
      each Walmart sold 3 phones a month = 3890x3x3month=
      Amazon sold a number similar to at&t stores =180000
      Microsoft+Nokia giveaways =1000
      These are pretty conservative numbers and I guess amazon outsells AT&T as their price as of now is 0.01 for Lumia 900 and AT&T stil sells at $99.
      Based on these numbers I come up with Lumia 900 install base at the end of Q2 should be more than 43507. If I tripple the numbers from Amazon then I come up with 795307 which is way off than 330k from these surveys.

      • http://bergie.iki.fi/ Henri Bergius

        Any numbers like the ones Nielsen provided here are estimates at best. They however seem quite confident in the quality of their data:

        “No other company can match Nielsen’s depth and breadth when it comes to analyzing the mobile market”

        http://nielsen.com/us/en/measurement/mobile-measurement.html

        I came to about 570k Lumia phones by calculating 327M US cellphone subscribers (according to Wikipedia), 55% of which use a smartphone, and 0,3% of those being Lumias (according to Nielsen).

      • http://twitter.com/akchaudh akcme

        The problem is with that 0.3% number. Lets say they do rounding at that % and that could cause a huge error at that point. For example 0.344% will still be 0.3 when you round it up but when you mutiply with numbers then its a huge. Also one can go the other way, for example 0.295% will still be 0.3% when you round it up. Now you can calculate the error.
        These guys are neither engineers not mathmaticians.

      • UncleAlbert2

        With or without a rounding difference the figures would still be shit.

      • Avatar Roku

        Nielsen released a statement saying that the Nokia numbers are inaccurate:

        “Update: Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have
        been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those
        of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market.
        They added that they therefore “do not feel the 300,000 number is
        accurate”.”

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  • http://twitter.com/counterblow the person

    I can’t wait for you to look like a fool next week. You are a hack dude.

    • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

      So what exactly are you saying? What’s your prediction for the numbers next week?
      Since you’re so certain you know the truth, how about sharing it with us.

    • Walt French

      Congratulations on showing a grand total of ZERO on the Reading Comprehension test above. This is NOT Asymco’s data, but is reported (and reformatted from a woefully misleading and inaccurate graphic at Nielsen) for our convenience.

      So, I wonder why you are so certain of wanting to make Asymco look like a fool, that you turned the weapon on yourself? Did he run over your dog?

      • N8nnc

        Horace’s (good) karma ran over his (bad) dogma.

  • http://twitter.com/handleym99 Maynard Handley

    This is not of great importance but a few days ago I saw a real life Lumia, for the first time ever, in, of all places, a shopping mall in Jakarta, Indonesia! I have never seen one in real life in the US.

    [Some other interesting points about cell phones in Indonesia:

    - They appear to be the last great bastion of RIM. Practically everyone has a Blackberry, and our guide was amazed when we told him that RIM was likely to be bankrupt and dead or acquired soon. Perhaps RIM's strategy should be to give up on the West and concentrate on milking Indonesia and similar countries for a few more years?

    - Bali appears to have a cell tower on every block. It's crazy how many towers they have. The towers ARE mostly 3-way sectored, but are not using multiple antennas and so no diversity. I guess this reflects the relative costs of land and labor vs hardware, compared to the US.

    - The visitor experience to Indonesia for cellular dramatically shames the US, and plenty of other countries. Buying an XL (a particular carrier) SIM cost around US$2, and topping that up with US$5 gave us more than enough voice, data and text for ten days of exploration, using data, in particular maps, very aggressively. The only real problem was figuring out how to activate data for the SIM, which required finding a local who understood what we were trying to do, at which point it consisted of sending an SMS to a particular number.

    - Most of the time we were seeing HSPA (but never HSPA+) and throughput was better than we usually see in the US. To be fair, I suspect this reflects not a better network in Indonesia, but one whose data capacity is dramatically less loaded compared to the US.
    ]

    • inawarminister

      Yeah, we Indonesians are one of the few market left where RIM reign supreme (and India, the Arabs, and UK)
      Nowadays Android is much more popular though.
      Also, my mum has a Lumia. And yeah there’s very few people with WP7 here, even though virtually EVERYONE had Nokia phones just a few years ago…

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  • http://beautyandthesoftware.blogspot.com/ Adrian Constantin

    Is there any research data that explains why people do not buy Lumia? It is relatively straightforward to understand the preference for iPhone or Samsung Galaxy S3. What I am not sure is why people do not buy Lumia instead of an Android phone other than Galaxy S3? People’s choice is very diverse when it comes to cars, vacuum cleaners, dishwashers, etc., but so narrow, at least for now, when it comes to smartphones. I have a list of possible answers, some of them mentioned already: network effect, apps and other ecosystem components, Windows brand, missing features in Lumia, etc. However, they are just hypotheses, with no confirmation yet.

    • Canucker

      Check one out in a store and its fairly apparent. The hardware is quite nice but is far from cutting edge. The interface is different (good) but perhaps too different. In other words, it doesn’t have a reputation and there is a learning curve. Instead, check out the iPhone your pals have or the new S3 that is getting lots of positive press. As Win 8 increases in popularity, its possible that initial pushback due to unfamiliarity will be reduced. But your other points are also contributory and I think the network effect is powerful. I wonder at the awareness of the obsolescence of WP7 – I think there is a level of this, even among non-geeks like us.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      It may just be a matter of time. The tragedy may be that the protagonists don’t seem to have enough of it.

    • zato

      “Is there any research data that explains why people do not buy Lumia?”

      This is a very good question to ask. I think the question should be “why people do not buy Microsoft?”
      Could there be a reason why people don’t want a MICROSOFT phone?
      I can think of a few.

    • Simon

      “What I am not sure is why people do not buy Lumia instead of an Android phone other than Galaxy S3? ”

      When you look at the latest Android phones with best specs, such as the phones like HTC One X and LG 4X, they are not all that far away from the Galaxy at all, and better it in some areas, such as display. Also they are nearly as fast. (Look at the Verge’s review of the latest LG: http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/6/3138740/lg-optimus-4x-hd-review)

      People do not buy Lumia presumably because they are persuaded away from Windows Phone to Android, or possible away from the Nokia/Microsoft brand.

      It’s going to get worse from Nokia. The cheap Chinese makers are now beginning to emerge and really there is no reason that those Chinese cannot make something at least somewhat competitive to even the Galaxy in a few years.

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  • mono

    Horace, how much time do you give Nokia to fix themselves? Q2 is meant to be quite bad, and Q3 will be even worse as everyone holds on for WP8. I know some estimates give them until mid-2013 until they run out of cash, just wanted your thoughts on the matter.

    • xynta_man

      >some estimates give them until mid-2013 until they run out of cash

      Do they really have that little cash? I don’t fully remember, but didn’t somebody say they have cash to last additional two-three years?

      • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

        Restructuring (aka layoffs burn a lot of cash). Also, spinning off the Nokia Siemens group will require re-capitalization. Almost all the net cash is already spoken for. This is why the company is now trading at below book value.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      Analyzing distressed companies is a profession in itself. It’s very hard to predict the speed with which something unravels. Many things may happen where they raise cash creatively. My favorite theory is that Microsoft will inject cash and enable the spinning out of the smartphone group but will only take a tiny equity position. This would be similar to what they did with the Nook division at Barnes & Noble.

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  • bobe2

    I love my Lumia, but mine is the only one I’ve seen other than at ATT

  • Peter Johnes

    Sooooo mr. Elop what´s the spin this time around? This is just one big train reck in super slow mo at the expense of a once great european company, sad really!

    • Tatil_S

      Yepp, so true. It would be so much better if Nokia stayed more like RIM.

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  • http://twitter.com/cyuzna Conan Yuzna

    Horace, I was hoping that you could help me out w/ something.
    According to the Neilsen numbers, the “Other” category captured 5% of the market sales over the past 3 months. Considering that neither WebOS nor Symbian seem to be carried by any of the major US carriers, and Windows Mobile is only carried on a single device on Sprint, how is it possible that this number is not almost entirely Windows Phone?
    Thanks for any insight that you can lend.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      I would agree that the Others in the recent acquirers must be Windows Phone. Now we need to find out what the total number of recent acquisitions were.

      • chithanh

        You can derive this from Nielsen 2012 Q1/Q2 numbers too.

        During Q1, Windows Mobile owners were 4.1% and Windows Phone were 1.7% according to http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/who-owns-smartphones-in-the-us/
        During Q2, Windows Mobile owners were 3% and Windows Phone were 1.3% according to http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/two-thirds-of-new-mobile-buyers-now-opting-for-smartphones/

        So it seems very unlikely that Microsoft had 5% of the Market. In fact the numbers suggest that hardly any Windows phones sold at all.

      • http://twitter.com/cyuzna Conan Yuzna

        Well, when you consider that Symbian & WebOS (grouped together as “other” in the Q1 report) had 2.1% in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2, you certainly cannot attribute any significant portion of the 5% to either of those OSes.
        Again, I cannot imagine WM, Symbian and WebOS *combined* constituting a significant portion of that 5% figure. They were simply not for sale at any significant retail outlet in this country during Q2.
        My theory is that the survey data that Neilsen & ComScore collect is particularly vulnerable to distortion at the low end, and that this is creating a void but for whatever reason not reporting WP as filling that void. Of course, this flies in the face of the fact that Blackberry was reported at an even-lower 4% figure.
        We’ll see in good time, I guess.

    • pekka37

      25 million smartphones sold in the U.S. Q2 2012. So, 5 percent of that is 1.250.000 , over a million ! Lets assume 90 percent is windows phone =1.100.000

      Nokia Lumia has totally dominated windows phone sales in US last 3 months.

      My guess is that Nokia has sold 950.000 Lumia Q2 in US. – almost a million. Dont sell your Nokia shares :)

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  • http://ARMdevices.net/ Charbax

    And if Nokia had been using Android, they’d have sold 33 million phones in the USA by now.

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  • bumpy

    @emilio_orione:disqus : Not going with “Windows everywhere” would have shattered the MS monolith. It might have succeeded, but would have meant abandoning the strategy Microsoft has always followed. The result would be that Microsoft’s phone OS would have no edge over competing products merely because it’s from Microsoft, but would have to compete on its own merits, a situation in which Microsoft has never succeeded. Indeed it would be at a severe disadvantage just because it’s late to market. And it would limit the future of Windows.

    • Walt French

      I think you have it *mostly* right. What is limiting Windows is that other paradigms are more attractive now, and are available on quite inexpensive hardware. Android, iOS and the like have very low TCOs because of their (noot-quite-) zero-configuration philosophy whereas Windows always MUST meet the needs of the Enterprise that buys most of ‘em.

      Yes, Microsoft wants to maintain the power of the Windows brand. But I actually think MS is doing its little OS a disservice by not creating a new “concierge” or “personal assistant” image for its mobile, game, cloud and ecosystem services, so the phones don’t get dragged down by our association with the very work- and complexity-focused Windows brand.

  • Ted

    Hmmm. Horace would you mind comparing these stats with the Chitika labs numbers? It would appear that iOS smartphones has just over 49% of the average daily connects? This doesn’t jive with either of the above 2 info providers…Thnx

    • Walt French

      I’m not Horace, but it’s fairly obvious that Chitka is measuring US/Canada traffic rather than ownership or purchases.

      And they claim it is traffic to sites using their ad services, which don’t, AFAICT, include major sites such as the NYT that might be much more heavily visited during the business day, and serve a much different clientele than the average web usage would actually represent.

      I suspect the average person here thinks that the average iOS user visits the web more often than the average Android user. Certainly, when a majority of Android users were on pre-Froyo devices, web use was pretty clunky. But I don’t know if that persists today, although the contrast of the two surveys certainly suggest it.

      Those of us with a strong stats background are used to two pretty-good estimates being compared against one another in a way that produces nonsense. I don’t know the Chitka data well enough to overcome the concerns above, but I wouldn’t think we should make too much of them.

      Or do you have some information to contribute?

      • Ted

        thanx Walt! I have no background in stats. A further read of Chitika and your explanation cleared up my misconceptions. Appreciate the rply.

  • http://www.facebook.com/RettaHutahaean Retta Hutahaean

    Why would anybody buy a Windows phone now (remember Symbian). They have screwed users in the past pre-Windows 7 and have just announced that they will screw users again pre-Windows 8. Go figure!

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  • Avatar Roku

    Nielsen sent out an update stating that the figures are inaccurate:

    Update: Nielsen has spoken up on how its figures have
    been used, saying it does not support multiplying its numbers with those
    of Comscore, as they measure subtly different elements of the market.
    They added that they therefore “do not feel the 300,000 number is
    accurate”.

    Both T-mobile and AT&T have stated that the Lumia phones are consistent top sellers on their networks:

    T-mobile’s blog post on Windows Phone says that the Lumia has been in their top 5 best sellers for 6 months now. It was in the top 3 for the first 3 months of the year. AT&T also says that the Lumia has been in the top 3 since April launch, the only phone that outsold the Lumia 900 on AT&T for April and May was the iPhone 4s.

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  • trajan lodge

    one thing they don’t mention is Apple makes more than 50% of ALL the smartphone profits.

  • Mike D.

    1.3% market share for WP??… that’s shockingly low. Ballmer and Sinofsky need to go.

    R.I.P. Microkia

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  • http://twitter.com/piplzchoice Gregory Yankelovich

    Our research results also agree with the estimate of Windows phones market share, however it seem to be growing. The most important part is that the customer satisfaction rates with them is much higher. Check it out here http://blog.amplifiedanalytics.com/2012/07/customer-satisfaction-with-windows-smart-phones-rise-by-18/

    • Walt French

      busted link?

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  • http://twitter.com/counterblow the person

    well well well….would you like your crow served hot or cold? 600k Lumias is a big dish to swallow.

    • Walt French

      Not sure what your post looked like before you edited it this AM. Care to share how much crow you were prepared to serve before Nokia announced its actual shipments (which, at this instant, I’m not sure might actually include retail inventory)?

      Certainly, the implication in the original data of 300K phones, while subject to significant percentage sampling errors due to its small base, was pretty on-target: well below a million WP platform devices put into users’ hands, despite tens of millions on other platforms.

    • http://www.asymco.com Horace Dediu

      Nokia reported 600k phones shipments in North America. I believe they offer more than Lumias in North America. Note that the 600k figure is shipments, not end user purchases. My post estimated Lumia devices in use in the US. Also note that the company reported 600k shipments for Q1 indicating zero volume growth in the region. See table on page 7 in the company’s report:
      http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q2e.pdf

      • http://twitter.com/counterblow the person

        spin spin spin…..listen dude you were wrong. There is one non Windows Phone Nokia currently sold on T-Mobile and it certainly didn’t make up more than half of that 600k number. You would gain more respect if you would just come out and say “hey I was wrong, won’t do that again”

      • simon

        Actually there are lots of prepaid phones and smaller carriers selling various cheap Nokia phones.

        You can use the total revenue to estimate the sales. They said they sold about $120 million worth of phones. Guess how many Nokia 900 and 710 that fits there? If you average them to cost about $300, there cannot be more than 350,000 units sold altogether for Lumias with the cheap featurephones filling in the rest.

        Just admit it. Horace was amazingly close to the final number and youwere wrong.

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