Apple’s announcement of $60 million booked revenues for iAd, of which 60% is meant for developers implies $24 million operating profit for the second half of 2010. Assuming this rate doubles $100 million for 2011, it becomes clear that the acquisition of Quattro for $250 million is reasonable (2.5x gross earnings) and that the AdMob price of $750 million seems expensive.
Now Google may have justification for the $750 million along the lines of income from non-Apple platforms, but the CPMs for Admob are a fraction (perhaps 10%) of what iAd is able to obtain. Therefore, it’s a pretty fair conclusion that Google did not get a bargain.
JP Morgan is cited as sizing the US mobile display ad market at $250 million. This gives Apple 48% market share of the mobile ad market for second half of 2010.
Citing an unnamed executive familiar with the plans, MediaPost claims that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs has been touting the upcoming service, rumored to launch April 7th, as “revolutionary” and “our next big thing” amongst his inner circle. No further details were reported.
via AppleInsider | Apple rumored to introduce iAd App Store service on April 7th.
On December 30th 2009, I wrote:
I think it’s a certainty that Apple will introduce an ad serving platform for the iPhone (and any tablet) in 2010. This will amount to a checkbox that developers will check when submitting their app to the store.
When asked about the company’s recent acquisitions of Quattro and Lala after yesterday’s earnings report, Apple’s chief financial officer Peter Openheimer answered, “In terms of Quattro and Lala we acquired Quattro because we wanted to offer a seamless way for developers to make more money on their apps, especially free apps.”
As I said before: why would a developer bother with AdMob if Apple integrates ads into the SDK? Does AdMob offer better terms? Does AdMob offer more sponsors? It’s the developers (and Apple indirectly) who supply inventory.