Top Tags

Tag Estimates

Ballmer thinks the iPad is a PC; analysts who measure market shares don't.

8:50 am: Walt circles back, notes that Ballmer uses the term PC to include things that most people don’t think of as PCs. Is the iPad a PC?

Ballmer: Of course it is. What do you do on it? Answer email….A guy tried to take notes on it at a meeting I was at yesterday–that was interesting [chuckles from the audience]. He suggests that the positioning of devices like the iPad as something beyond the PC is just a marketing tactic.

via Steve Ballmer and Ray Ozzie at D8 Conference: on Competitors, Tablets, Future of Computing and much more | Microsoft | ithinkdifferent.

If only the analysts would add the 2+ million iPads shipped this quarter to Apple’s Mac units and declare that Apple’s market share doubled(*).  If only things were so simple.

At least on this I agree with Ballmer.

(*) The iPad is already outselling the Mac on a weekly run-rate.

iPhone takes share from RIM, Android takes share from Windows Mobile

Data tracking firm Nielsen Co.’s quarterly survey found that, in the U.S. the iPhone added two percentage points for a 28% market share in the three months ended in late March compared to the previous quarter. RIM still had the biggest market share at 35% but it lost two percentage points in that period.

Phones that run on Google Inc.’s Android operating system also gained two percentage points for a market share of 9% over the same period, while Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Mobile phones lost two percentage points for a 19% share.

via Appetite for IPhone Continues Undiminished – Digits – WSJ.

Although Android is often considered in competition with the iPhone, as we’ve shown in the past, the two are seldom competing for the same purchase decision.  From a distribution and business model point of view, the platforms are mostly non-overlapping.

The installed base data above shows that in their respective areas of competition: in the US, with the current operator channel, the iPhone is taking share from a similarly positioned platform (RIM) while Android is taking share from a similarly licensed alternative (Windows Mobile).

Analysts predict iPad sales (part II)

After 12 million units sold in 28 60 days, it’s time to review the analysts’ predictions:

First year iPad unit forecasts (sourced from TMO Finance Board)

  • Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech 7.0
  • David Bailey, Goldman Sachs 6.2
  • Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley 6.0
  • Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. 5.0
  • Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital Markets 5.0
  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray 3.5
  • Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital 2.9
  • Keith Bachman, BMO Capital 2.5
  • Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna 2.1
  • Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank 2.0
  • Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch 1.2
  • Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams 1.2
  • Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel 1.1
  • Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer 1.1

Looks like at least half two thirds of these guys have already blown it.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first year).  It looks like I’ll be facing the iPad dunce corner as well.

See: Analysts predict iPad sales

IDC: I Dream of Claim Chowder

A few eyebrows were raised when Microsoft presented a slide at a French event where they made the claim that 30 Million Windows Phone devices would be sold by the end of 2011.  Given that the first Windows Phone won’t ship until October 2010 at the earliest, or, according to Mr. Ballmer, “by Christmas,” count me among the skeptics.

However, the claim was later retracted by Microsoft stating that they mis-quoted IDC, the original source for the forecast.  The correction was perhaps meant to put an end to the credibility crisis.

However, the actual forecast from IDC was even more preposterous.

Apple's Growth Scorecard

Apple’s growth and its disconnect with valuation has been a common theme on this blog. For another look at this conundrum I present here a table of Apple’s year on year sales growth by product line and its top and bottom lines.

I color coded the values so that a darker green signifies higher growth (and red, negative growth)

I call this the growth scorecard.

What does this scorecard say about the previous 24 months?

  • Earnings never grew slower than 30% for any quarter except for one quarter when the comp was ridiculously high at 155% (on the back of iPhone 3G launch).
  • Throughout the recession Apple grew sales.
  • The worst growth performance was on peripherals which is Apple’s smallest business
  • The fastest growth was the iPhone, now Apple’s largest business.
  • The iTunes store grew sales consistently throughout the previous 24 months.
  • Growth has been positive (green) across all lines for the past two quarters and has been accelerating.

My estimate for the current (June) quarter is that Net Sales will grow by 47% y/y and Earnings will grow by 60%.

Global smart phone OS shares (part II)

On May 5th, I tried to fill in the blanks on Global smart phone OS shares | Asymco. I estimated that the shares for the mobile OS’s were as follows (based on Canalys partial data):

  • Symbian (Nokia): 42%
  • Blackberry OS (RIM): 19%
  • iPhone OS (Apple): 16%
  • WinMo (Microsoft): 10%
  • Android (Google): 10%
  • WebOS (Palm): 2%

Now Gartner has published their sell-through estimates:

  • Symbian (Nokia):: 44%
  • Blackberry OS (RIM): 19%
  • iPhone OS (Apple): 15%
  • Android (Google): 10%
  • WinMo (Microsoft): 7%
  • Linux: 4%
  • Other OSs: 1%

My estimates were within 1 or 2 percent of actuals except for Windows Mobile where I over-estimated by 300 basis points.

The analysis of Android vs. iPhone market shares (globally and within the US) which depended on this estimation does not change materially.

The complete data from Gartner follows:

Global smart phone OS shares

In the free press release linked below Canalys reveals their estimates of vendor shares but not the OS shares for smartphones. However it’s not hard to see the OS split due to the high degree of exclusivity of OS’s to vendors.

For example, virtually all Nokia devices are Symbian powered, all RIM devices are Blackberries and all Apple devices are iPhone OS.  Motorola is only shipping Android and HTC is the only top 5 vendor that now licenses more than one OS.  Even HTC’s portfolio is now heavily Android weighted.

We can carve out Palm (960k units shipped) from the “others” and we’re left with mostly Windows Mobile.  My estimate would be about 5 to 6 millionWinMo made it out.

That leads me to the following estimated OS shares:

  • Symbian (Nokia): 42%
  • Blackberry OS (RIM): 19%
  • iPhone OS (Apple): 16%
  • WinMo (Microsoft): 10%
  • Android (Google): 10%
  • WebOS (Palm): 2%

If anyone knows the actual Canalys OS shares, let me know.

Global smart phone market growth rises to 67% (Canalys press release: r2010043).

iPad screen order book at 13 million units

3:1 split between LG and Samsung. No word on timing for this production, but I doubt it’s longer than one year.

My estimate is 6 million 2010 and about 15 million for calendar 2011.

Samsung Gets Big Order for iPad Displays