Can the iPhone reach 10% of the world's 3G subscribers?

In a previous article I asked what it would take for the iPhone to reach 20% of the world’s smartphone market? (answer: 50% growth).

Now I take a look at the whole market measuring three underlying quantities:

  1. the number of total wireless subscribers world-wide
  2. the number of 3G subscribers
  3. the number of smartphones sold every year 2007 to 2013

The forecast for 2013 is:

  1. total subs: 6.2 billion
  2. total 3G subs: 2.4 billion (38% of all WW users)
  3. 660 million smartphones sold in 2013

I also computed the installed base of iPhones based on units sold per year according to the following schedule: 100% of iPhones in use during first year, 75% in use after second year, 50% in use in the third year, 25% in the fourth and 0% in the fifth and after.

If the iPhone can sustain 50% growth then the following are possible in 2013:

  1. 4% of world’s users using an iPhone (248 million iphone users)
  2. 10% of 3G users are using the iPhone
  3. 21% of smartphones purchased are iPhones