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Month: October 2010

IBM Survey: The cell phone is no longer a gadget – it’s what IT is going to become

“In all areas of software development, mobile computing is seen as the number-one hottest IT opportunity next year,” said Jim Corgel, an IBM general manager of independent software vendors and developer relations who was involved in the survey. “Not only will mobile spike to the forefront, but by 2015, respondents said it will dominate everything. The cell phone is no longer a gadget – it’s what IT is going to become.”

via IBM Survey Says Mobile Apps Will Dominate Enterprise – Venture Capital Dispatch – WSJ.

Developers are usually not very good at predicting specific business winners or losers (to prove this consider why developers don’t spend their energy and earn their living picking tech stocks instead of writing code.)

However, developers are very good at spotting long term technology trends. It was developers who championed the early internet and it was developers who saw potential in social networking. To see a survey of developers confirm that mobile devices will dominate IT, in contradiction to most incumbent strategies, is encouraging.

How many iPads next year? Analyst Sees 45 Million IPads In 2011

The contact, says [Ticonderoga’s] White, shipped more than 6 million parts to Apple during the third quarter of the year and expects to ship 7 million more in the fourth quarter.

Since Apple uses one unit of this particular component in each iPad, that adds up to shipments of 13 million iPads in the second half of 2010. For 2011, the contact believes Apple will sell as many as 45 million iPads

via Analyst Sees 45 Million IPads In 2011, Next Gen IPad Launching Soon – Elizabeth Woyke – Mobilized – Forbes.

These numbers are not unreasonable. I expect about 35 million next year, though that could go up considerably depending on what we hear about last quarter.  We only really have one data point so far meaning the data set is to double in a few days.

The strategic tension inherent in the iPhone franchise

I don’t write product reviews and I don’t pass judgement on individual products but I do own and test various products. For example I have the Android powered Samsung Galaxy 5 (GT-I5500) and the experience is, in my opinion, better than for recent Symbian phones but not as smooth as for Apple’s products.

But that’s not what this article is about.

It’s about Continue reading “The strategic tension inherent in the iPhone franchise”

The symmetry of share shifts in mobile phones

Thanks to a reader’s suggestion, I took another look at the profit and market share data from the mobile phone market overview posted last quarter. This time to compare the vendors on two dimensions at the same time.

I plotted the vendors on share of market and share of profit axes in two different points in time: Q2 2007 and Q2 2010. I further broke the chart into four quadrants as shown: Continue reading “The symmetry of share shifts in mobile phones”

New Comment system in use

I activated IntenseDebate comments. This allows many features (see below) including the editing of comments.

There might be some issues or bugs that will be discovered only once the system is in use so let me know what you observe.

The key features claimed are:

  • Reply By Email
  • Users Reputations
  • RSS Feeds
  • Widgets
  • Threaded Comments
  • Tracking and Notifications
  • Profiles
  • Comment Voting
  • Social Traffic Drive

Readers will be able to follow the conversation within the comments better with comment threading. Comment threading makes reading comments manageable and returns the value of insightful comments to your site. Not only will your readers be more likely to comment, but they’ll be more likely to return to leave multiple comments as the debate gets going. Comment notification emails alert your readers when someone has responded to their comment and makes responding a piece of cake with our Reply By Email feature.

In addition, your readers will be able to vote on the comments made, and gain reputation points giving their comments more authority. Readers can subscribe to comments through our support of various RSS readers. Readers can follow their friends as they comment their way across the Internet. Not to mention that Intense Debate is a great tool for promoting their own blogs.

Ticonderoga sees over 15 million iPads in 9 months

White contends iPad could be “one of the most coveted gifts” this holiday season; he sees the company selling 7.1 million units in the September 2010 fiscal year, with 19.9 million in 2011, and 25.8 million in 2012.

The analyst said his target is based on 20x his interest expense/income adjusted calendar 2011 pro forma EPS estimate, plus net cash of $49.43 a share.

via Apple: Ticonderoga Starts With Buy, Street-High $430 Target – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com.

If Apple hits 5 million in the just ended September quarter Continue reading “Ticonderoga sees over 15 million iPads in 9 months”

AT&T Set to Release Multiple WP7 Devices, T-Mobile anchors launch event

As of two weeks ago, AT&T was to be the launch partner for Windows Phone. AT&T had been expected to unveil phones from HTC, Samsung and LG, according The Wall Street Journal.

Windows Phone Thoughts: AT&T Set to Release Multiple WP7 Devices.
Today we hear that the invitations for the October 11 launch event have gone out, without mention of AT&T:

“T-Mobile reps will be present for device showing and their service offering discussion,” according to the invite.

Can’t wait for the spin.

iPad lead seen as 'overwhelming'

Chris Whitmore predicted 2.0 million iPads would be sold in 2010 soon after the product launched. (asymco | Analysts predict iPad sales)

More recently, Chris Whitmore writes for Deutsche Bank:

“We believe Apple’s lead in the tablet market will prove difficult to close by the onslaught of competing products coming over the next several quarters,” he writes in a note to clients issued early Monday. “Ultimately, we expect the slew of upcoming competition to fall flat from a user experience standpoint while struggl[ing] to materially undercut the iPad on price.”

How far ahead is Apple (AAPL)? According to Whitmore: Continue reading “iPad lead seen as 'overwhelming'”

Goldman downgrades Microsoft, blames iPad

“We believe the intrinsic value of shares cannot be unlocked if the status quo remains, and we have increased caution near term on a more elongated PC refresh cycle, combined with the newer threat of notebook cannibalization from tablets, where Windows does not yet have a presence,” write Goldman Sachs analyst Sarah Friar and associates in the introduction to the report.

More advice about what to do about this in the linked article: Goldman downgrades Microsoft, makes case for major overhaul.

I’d skip over the recommendation to break up the company but the observation that Microsoft might face earnings threat from iPad is provocative. Usually it takes a few years for the incumbent to feel pain and react. The pain might be sooner than expected though the reaction might still take some time as the Windows Phone response to iPhone is taking its sweet time.

Updated estimates for Apple's fourth quarter earnings

We expect revenue to be about $18 billion compared to $12.2 billion in the September quarter last year. We expect gross margins to be about 35%…

We are targeting EPS of about $3.44.

via Apple Inc. AAPL Q3 2010 Earnings Call Transcript.

I’ve updated my estimates from the July forecast as follows: Continue reading “Updated estimates for Apple's fourth quarter earnings”