50% penetration for smartphones in the US turned out to be fairly predictable. I tracked my predictions based on comScore data and the results are shown in the following graph.
I began making predictions in May 2010 and updated the estimate every month since. As the chart shows, the prediction converged to early September 2012 by early 2011. The actual date was sometime in late August 2012.
During the last 12 months 31 million American phone users abandoned the use of feature phones. During the last 24 months over 60 million switched. Over 550k users are switching every week and this rate of switching has not changed much since late 2009.
A discussion on a forthcoming blog post titled “The Last Feature Phone”. Also why stock markets are intractable: the problem with understanding the motivation of buyers and sellers of equities, especially those who act on behalf of others as fund managers. Finally, a review of what’s on Horace’s to-do list for 2013 and a hint at the new 5by5 show High Density, the first episode which is linked in the show notes.
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #69: The Concentration of Power.
Announcing a new 5by5 podcast: High Density.
In the first episode I interview Glenn Fleishman and talk about what it takes to be on Jeopardy (and how to win.) We also go on a journey into the lore and charm of The Economist and the curious state of modern journalism.
