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Facebook to Enter Mobile Phone Market in 2011

Despite being based on Android, a Facebook phone would be competition for Google as much as it is for Apple. Google benefits from ad revenue tied to their search and other services which would likely be supplanted by Facebook services on a Facebook-based phone.

Facebook to Enter Mobile Phone Market in 2011 – Mac Rumors.
I wonder if Facebook devices, or Verizon Bing devices will be counted by Google as Android activations.

See also: asymco | Is a Facebook phone destined to be a Vanity smartphone?

Asymco: the existential theory

Much of what I write is structured around theories of strategy and management. The word theory gets a bad reputation among managers because it’s associated with the word “theoretical” which connotes impractical. But a theory is a very practical thing because it’s a statement of causality. Causality means you don’t have to collect experimental evidence on whether when you jump out of a window you fall or not. There is a theory about gravity which you can use to your advantage.

So even though they scorn talk of theory, managers use theory all the time. Whenever a rational manager takes any action, it’s predicated on a theory already in their head. Whenever they put forward a business plan they are employing a theory that if they do these things they will be successful.

The problem is that much of what passes for business debate is the stacking of theories on either side of an argument. Unfortunately most of these theories are not much more than anecdotes. To say that “open always wins” is a theory but it’s usually backed only by one or two examples without a list of counter-examples. That’s not to pick on “open” as there are many more deeply flawed theories (e.g. the stupid manager theory of business failure) which have no evidence whatsoever to support them and all the evidence in the world to disprove them and yet they retain the highest popularity.

So the problem with management “science” is that most managers are not aware of what theories they are employing, treating them more like intuition or some God-given insight. They also don’t know whether or to what extent their theories are good or bad. They also don’t have access to a body of data that supports or challenges their theories. Business data is often locked away even from employees of the company producing such data. It’s buried so effectively that it’s often forgotten and has to be re-generated every time a new management team takes over. Corporations effectively kill self-knowledge and lack any institutional memory.

To illustrate the effect I can offer personal testimony. When working at my last job I spent a great deal of salaried time collecting data and presenting it. Much like what is presented in this unsalaried blog. The difference is that when a “work product” was done (almost always in the form of Powerpoint slideware), it would be released to the audience which requested it. This audience could be as small as one person or as large at a few dozen. But once consumed by the audience, the product had a half-life of about a week. It would be literally forgotten in a month. Now this could be used to one’s advantage as every few months a smart analyst could dust off some old product and re-release it to the amazement of another audience or even to the same audience who had forgotten. Taken to extremes, you can envision a Dilbert-like scenario where the analyst is like Wally who has a perpetual salary for repeating ancient knowledge.

The reason this model for analysis fails is because information is rationed in corporations. The transmission, dissemination, storage and consumption of information is intentionally constrained. This makes the work of an analyst nearly useless. I finally became disillusioned with the process when, at one point in time, having worked on one piece of analysis for two weeks on the premise that it would be presented at a high-level meeting, my time slot got bumped off the agenda due to scheduling issues. My work was never presented to anyone.

It was at that time that I realized that my “work product” was non-essential to the meeting anyway. It was, for the lack of a better word, executive entertainment. So, naturally, realizing that I was really an entertainer I resolved to become better at it. That led me to target not those who request the work, but the largest audience possible because they would give me better feedback. I began to blog internally.

Calling analysis entertainment may sound flippant, but at a more core level, it’s actually an enlightened way to see the process. Steve Jobs is an executive but his skill at entertaining an audience is what makes him an effective communicator with huge consequences to his firm. In olden days CEOs were lauded for their problem solving skills, then for their sales skills, but now they need to be “charismatic” and therefore entertaining.

This blog is an experiment in the opening of business theory and the open exchange of insights. In doing so I take a look at keeping the work relevant by making it approachable, illuminating and, yes, entertaining. So I went from a salaried producer of analysis for a small and forgetful audience to an unsalaried producer of analysis for a large audience in a format that encourages memory. A company was paying a lot of money for something that it ignored. I now receive no income for work that is (hopefully) ravenously consumed. I rather like this more.

When I started this blog I chose a word “asymco” which did not exist and had exactly zero hits on Google search. Now I’m glad to see that “asymco” has 77,300 results on Google search. I am grateful to all who have helped in making this possible and I’m looking forward to further collaboration.

Forecasting iPhone production and sales

Analyst Jeffrey Fidacaro with Susquehanna Financial Group in a note to investors:

  1. Apple to build 3 million CDMA iPhones in December
  2. That would put total GSM and CDMA iPhone production for the quarter at between 21 million and 22 million.
  3. For the current quarter, Apple is set to build between 18.2 million and 18.4 million GSM-only iPhones.
  4. Expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company’s fiscal 2010. 39 percent q/q increase[1][see UPDATE below]
  5. As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame.
  6. Expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units into the current quarter, 45 percent growth q/q, to a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010.

via AppleInsider | Suppliers say Apple will build first 3M CDMA iPhones in December.

What I don’t get from these numbers:

  • current quarter production: 18.2 million
  • current quarter units sold: 11.6 million
    • inventory at end of Q: 6.6 m units [I am assuming minimal inventory at start as iPhone 4 was just launched]
  • next quarter production: 21 million
  • next quarter units sold: ?
    • inventory at start + production = 27.6 million

My own estimate is for more than 12 (and up to 13) million units will be sold this quarter. I think inventory of more than half of production is too high for Apple. They usually carry only about 10% inventory.

My December quarter units sold may need revision but now stand at 14 million. If I substitute 14 million in the “?” above  then the inventory at end of December would be 13.6 million which would be nearly 100% of units sold–clearly unacceptable. Either production is too high or sales are too low.

I am at 4.7 million iPads for the quarter an 13.9 million for the year. No major difference in opinion.

[1] This forecast for 39% growth would make this quarter the second lowest growth quarter for the product. This makes is hard to believe because every launch quarter has usually been breaking records for growth. The 3G launch saw 516% growth and the 3GS saw 644%. To see 39% for the iPhone 4 makes me wonder especially as the comparable year ago quarter was not a launch quarter so growth should be off a low base. Last quarter, when the iPhone 4 was leaked and the channel was drained the product had 61% growth.

Compare also to the Mac which had 33% growth last quarter. Are we to believe that launch quarter iPhone growth is barely higher than Mac growth?

The figure of 11.6 million is also in-line with other analysts which seems to indicate another forecasting failure for the cohort.

[UPDATE] I checked the figures and 11.6 million iPhones is equivalent to 58% growth y/y. The (now corrected) article was citing q/q growth. However, 58% growth is still the second lowest growth quarter for the product.

Android vs. Windows Phone: Extending the urination metaphor

CE-Oh no he didn’t!: Anssi Vanjoki says using Android is like peeing in your pants for warmth — Engadget.

A quick follow-up on Anssi Vanjoki’s observation on Android. When he suggested that Android would be just a short-term solution for phone providers the metaphor he used was that it was equivalent to peeing in your pants for warmth in winter.

I wanted to point out that strategically, using Windows Phone is the same thing, except that vendors have to pay for the urine.

The joint mobile operating system: A risible idea | Mobile Industry Review

And then it all went wrong. Mobile utility providers became mobile operators. They decided they knew what their customers wanted. They turned into the electricity company trying to sell us toasters.

via The joint mobile operating system: A risible idea | Mobile Industry Review.

Great reading.

Nokia's UK managing director resigns

Nokia’s Uk managing director Mark Loughran reckons that the Nokia N97 will prove superior to the iPhone due to its significantly better camera sensor, lower tariffs and its radical change in styling and especially form factor from the company’s ex-flagship the Nokia N96.

Loughran said: “The new iPhone is an evolution rather than a revolution and for people trying to decide whether to get a Nokia N97 or an iPhone, it comes down to a decision on performance and value for money.”

Loughran added: “the new iPhone seems to have the same design and colour, upgrading froma sub-standard two-megapixel camera to a still low 3.2 megapixel camera, and is probably a disappointment.”

Nokia General Manager Believes N97 Will Beat The iPhone

Good times…

Can Android change the distribution of profit among phone vendors?

A quick update on the analysis of mobile phone profits. If the available profit[1] (i.e. excluding losses) were summed and each vendor’s profit were measured as a percent of this total, this chart would tell the story of the last three years:

Note that profit share has mostly shifted from Nokia to Apple, though Sony Ericsson and LG were also casualties and Motorola has not had anything to lose.

Some assume that the future belongs to the Koreans but we see that the relatively small amount of profit that Samsung has (less than RIM actually) has not changed much. HTC is also shown to be a steady performer but not having displaced much from competitors.

Will Android change this picture? As I’ve argued before, Android is most attractive to the unprofitable and the strategically constrained. Can having undifferentiated new products change this? As Nokia is unlikely to license Android, and RIM seems very unlikely and Apple is out of the picture, the only possible contenders are Samsung, LG, HTC, Motorola and Sony Ericsson.

Motorola and Sony Ericsson have both returned to profitability but with a very small volume Android strategy. However the incumbents fielding Android are really facing a far more sinister threat: the smaller local brands in China (e.g. ZTE) and emerging markets.

On profitability, the smaller challengers are unlikely to make a large impact, but they will constrain the profits of other licensees. The distribution of phones on a global scale is challenging without a brand, and brands are very expensive to build. It’s still possible over a longer timer frame that a small brand like HTC can emerge on a global stage. But in terms of profit capture, challengers will mostly “steal” from the already constrained big brands running with Android.

[1] Profit is not the only measure of success and can sometimes be a deceptive indicator. For this reason I look at a longer time frame so that anomalies, seasonality and business cycles are smoothed over. As flawed as it is as a measure, the most important reason to pay attention to profit is that it’s the only fuel for growth in the long term. Companies that are consistently unprofitable (e.g. Motorola) face diminishing degrees of strategic freedom further lubricating a downward slope toward financial distress.

Star system vs. flea market: How Apple and Google target talent

The iTunes app store has gone over 310k apps approved and has 250k apps in its catalog. The Android Market, in spite of (or perhaps because of) an abundance of copyright infringements, is growing nearly as quickly. According to at least one source, there are over 130k apps.

The way to study these two catalogs is to look at the number of new applications being approved (or added) on a monthly basis.

Even better would be to index to the same starting date, as in the following chart.

The Android Market grew grew more slowly than the iTunes store for the first two years but has accelerated to nearly the same rate now. Meanwhile, the iTunes Store has shown seasonality around the holidays (though we’ll have to see if it repeats this year) and has held fairly steady at 20k/mo.

The policies are also shifting: On one hand, Apple has also signaled that they are not willing to accept “me-too” copies of simple apps. On the other hand they clarified policies and began to allow interpreted code apps. Google has not yet reacted to infringements on its store but it’s probable that they will have to respond with some policing as download volumes grow.

The fact that the Android store is not policed or curated reduces the barrier to listing for developers and, in theory, should encourage a more rapid add rate. But the Star system of the iTunes store encourages more attempts to find hit apps. So in many ways we see that the two have an orthogonal approach:

  • The iTunes store is a hit-driven star system with long tail paid app value model
  • The Android Market is a flea market model with an ad-supported value model

There are few conclusions we can draw at this time about long term sustainability–after all these are ongoing and fairly young experiments.  It does seem that both platforms are attractive enough today to create critical masses of apps, perhaps exactly because they don’t put forward the same value model.

Is a Facebook phone destined to be a Vanity smartphone?

What do Palm, Kin, Nexus One, and the Simon have in common?

Beside being market failures, it’s the fact that they were efforts by large companies that had no business in smartphones. What’s more important is that the motivation for participation was not well thought out.

HP, Microsoft, Google and IBM tried (or are still trying) to capture a piece of the hardware revenues from smartphones, but their results were dismally poor. It turns out that with the exception of RIM, HTC and Apple, there have been no smartphone entrants which have succeeded against the incumbent voice phone makers.[1] Furthermore, Apple is the only large technology company to succeed. Studying the efforts that the successful entrants undertook shows that (1) it takes a very dedicated effort, led from the top, and (2) it takes a lot of capital or a lot of time. Those who tried and failed were not dedicated to the concept at a high enough level and were not patient enough for growth.

I think the real motivation to enter the market is rooted in vanity: appealing to the need management to feel a part of something new and important. If you are an ambitious internal champion skilled in political maneuvering, it’s fairly easy to appeal to this vanity in order to secure funding for these efforts.

This string of vanity-induced failures is not likely to end anytime soon. No doubt Dell will keep trying with the Aero, and we might see the PC companies rush in again as they did with PDAs.

We also hear today of the evolution of INQ’s product (INQ Social Mobile) into some sort of Facebook phone. However, is the Facebook phone project a vanity phone? Maybe, but the counterpoint is that this is not likely to be a smartphone. It’s more likely to be a feature phone and, as such, it’s not attempting to be something so grand or vain.

The real comparison might be to the Kindle. A specific, purpose-product built by the most motivated and best-positioned service provider. The Kindle has had some (unspecified) amount of success because it was developed to light specs and with a well-established distribution channel (amazon.com).

So although the motivation might be more sound, the challenge for Facebook will be the same as for Google: distribution. At the end of the day, without operator support the product will still remain a niche.

[1] I note here that Android and Windows Mobile are not phones but platforms and this article deals specifically with hardware.