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HTC: How Taiwan Compares

Taiwanese operators Chunghwa Telecom and Taiwan Mobile have reported much interest in iPhone 4 pre-orders. Both operators announced at 9pm on 26 August they would open pre-ordering at 10am on 27 August and both operators saw their websites crash, the China Post reports. By noon, some 10,000 users had signed up with Chunghwa Telecom and by 11am Taiwan Mobile had sold out all of its 3,000 iPhone 4 handsets available for pre-ordering. Rival Far EasTone said between 30,000 and 40,000 people signed up for a phone on its website and the operator will notify people that will be able to get the handset.

Taiwan Mobile sells out of iPhone 4 pre-orders – Telecompaper.

The next 100 million iOS devices part II

Brian Marshall, an analyst with investment firm Gleacher & Co., predicts that Apple will have sold 200 million iOS devices by this time next year. He expects the iPhone and iPad to represent 68 percent of gross margins for 2010.

via Apple’s mobile OS could move to more devices.

My expectations for the next 100 million were made in June:

My expectation is that well over 100 million iOS devices will sell during 2011, but even during the next 12 months (2H ’10 and 1H ’11) the total may well reach 100 million, making 200 million installed by June 2011 very likely.

The next 100 million iOS devices

My current expectation is that iPhone and iPad will account for 70 million additional iOS units for the twelve months following this June quarter. This excludes any Apple TV units moving to iOS.

As iOS moves to more of the iPod line-up it’s quite possible that another 30 million iPads with iOS will ship in the same time frame making Marshall’s forecast sound reasonable.

Dogfooding Asymco stats

Frequent readers of this blog know they’re in good company. There have been over 1000 comments in but a few months and, without any qualification, they have all been valuable.

I’ve been delighted that contributing readers are not only civil and polite, but that they almost always move the intellectual level of the blog higher. That’s very gratifying because although one major consideration when publishing is creating a large audience, a high quality audience is much more important. Especially to a site dedicated to elevating analytical discourse.

So, being analytical, I wanted to find out how to characterize the audience and understand the attributes of the readers. Naturally, where appropriate I would like to share that information. I hope to share some stats, perhaps with some interesting highlight, every month.

To kick off, here is a snapshot of one month’s worth of visits to www.asymco.com ranked by operating system.

What is perhaps unexpected is that mobile platforms (iPhone, iPad, Android etc.) generated more views than Windows. When comparing browsers, I also observed that Internet Explorer makes up only about 5% of views. (If that’s not a leading indicator of the intellect of the readers, I don’t know what is.)

Time will tell whether these ratios persist, but so far, it seems that Asymco readers are at least eating their own dogfood.

ADD this: Apple's Balance Sheet

Only on Asymco…

Let your fingers do the walking through Apple’s income statements since FQ1 2005. Glide effortlessly through juicy bits of assets and liabilities. Slide your finger through nineteen quarters of financial goodness.

A special bonus: included is a separate visualization of Apple’s liquid assets: cash, cash equivalents, Short-term marketable securities and Long-term marketable securities. $$$$$!

Brilliant to use and look at on both iPhone, iPad and iPod touch:


Continue reading “ADD this: Apple's Balance Sheet”

All the new screens

There is a rush to market a whole new batch of tablets. Here’s another one.

Yet another tablet

They all bear an outward resemblance to another tablet that was widely panned.

So what strikes me about all of these designs is that they’re basically just shiny rectangular things. There is very little you can do as a vendor to stand out with any particular rendition of a rectangle.

This is also becoming obvious with the mechanical design of smartphones. They are all smaller rectangles with shiny black screens.

Which begs the question: as they are all just screens, shouldn’t what’s on the screen matter more than the screen itself?

It seems only one vendor shows what’s on their screen.

Bond market discounting Nokia's credit rating

The world’s largest mobile-phone maker’s bonds are trading as if Nokia’s rating has been cut, with spreads over government debt widening as the company strives to develop devices with the same mass appeal as the iPhone, Research In Motion Ltd.’s BlackBerry and devices based on Google Inc.’s Android software.

There’s a “significant amount of risk overall with Nokia’s business model,” said Scott Shiffman, who directs bond research at Chapdelaine Credit Partners in New York. “Credit spreads should move wider over time and ratings will continue to move lower. We think the ratings agencies will play catch-up to the business deterioration.”

via Nokia’s Credit Rating in Jeopardy on Falling Profit, Bonds Show – Bloomberg.

Management response continues to be that Nokia is “by a very wide margin the largest supplier of smartphones and small computers in the world.”

Microsoft's billion dollar bonfire

Microsoft executives told Goldberg during a recent visit to company headquarters that the company, carriers, and manufacturing partners, would spend “billions” of dollars in the first year on marketing and development of Windows Phone 7. Another source estimated a $1 billion price tag for the launch, with half of it going to marketing.

via AppleInsider | Microsoft to spend over $500m to catch up to iPhone, Android.

Note the scale of spending here.  The number quoted is twice Apple’s yearly ad budget, for all its products.

$500 million is roughly the equivalent of Apple’s entire advertising budget for its 2009 fiscal year. In its 2009 Form 10-K filing to the SEC, the Cupertino, Calif., company listed $501 million in advertising expenses. Microsoft’s fiscal 2009 advertising budget was $1.4 billion.

But beside the unrepentant destruction of Microsoft’s shareholder wealth, one other thing jumps out at me: why are the operators and vendors going along with this?

Continue reading “Microsoft's billion dollar bonfire”

300k apps have been approved for the iTunes app store

Following up on the 300k app prediction:

  • Total Apps Approved: 301316
  • Total Available Apps: 252076
  • Total Available iPhone Apps: 239210
  • Total Available iPad Apps: 23742

via iPad Apps, iPhone Apps, Deals and Discovery at App Shopper – Popular Recent Changes.

Note the near 24k apps for iPad.

Announcing Asymco Data Downloads

Much of what is published here relies on data, lots of data. It’s important that data be published along with conclusions, but data in spreadsheets is often difficult to read. Spreadsheets are not “productized” so they are hard to explain and therefore impossible to share.

However, I am considering sharing the data I have in a format that is easier to read than a spreadsheet but richer than a screen shot of a chart.

To that end I’ve begun experimenting with a solution based on a service called Roambi. Interested readers can download Asymco authored “roambi” files which I call ADDs (Asymco Data Downloads) will display rich data sets on iOS devices. These representations are interactive and easy on the eyes.

Rather than bore with details, the following images should be sufficiently descriptive.

Continue reading “Announcing Asymco Data Downloads”

The End of Management – WSJ.com

When I asked members of The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, a group of chief executives who meet each year to deliberate on issues of public interest, to name the most influential business book they had read, many cited Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma.” That book documents how market-leading companies have missed game-changing transformations in industry after industry—computers (mainframes to PCs), telephony (landline to mobile), photography (film to digital), stock markets (floor to online)—not because of “bad” management, but because they followed the dictates of “good” management. They listened closely to their customers. They carefully studied market trends. They allocated capital to the innovations that promised the largest returns. And in the process, they missed disruptive innovations that opened up new customers and markets for lower-margin, blockbuster products.

via The End of Management – WSJ.com.

Here is the book: http://amzn.to/9jycyp