Author: Horace Dediu

Android vs. Windows Phone: Which vendors benefit?

Who is Winning the U.S. Smartphone Battle? | Nielsen Wire.

This is a great chart from Nielsen showing the split in manufacturer share by OS in US installed base. What I consider significant is how the modular software platforms Windows Mobile and Android worked out for the licensees.

Whereas in the case of Windows Mobile HTC took a significant, nearly dominant share, the Android ecosystem was more balanced between HTC and Motorola. However, HP and Motorola left the Microsoft camps, Motorola going exclusively for Android and HP buying Palm. That leaves Microsoft with HTC, Samsung and Other (mainly LG I presume).

The question of how Windows Phone will shape up vs. Windows Mobile and Android remains. Motorola has signaled they are not interested in WP7 for the time being and so it’s likely that they will stick with Android. Samsung is always hedging its bets so it will probably balance its portfolio. One could conceive of Nokia stepping into the US with significant WP volumes, but there are many hurdles on the way.

One can see the challenge individual modular vendors have to edge the overall volumes of the integrated vendors. As Nielsen points out:

But an analysis by manufacturer shows RIM and Apple to be the winners compared to other device makers since they are the only ones creating and selling smartphones with their respective operating systems

Not only are the volumes higher, but so are the margins and hence profit share.

Apps are 15 times more popular than ebooks

“It doesn’t matter how good or bad the product is, the fact is that people don’t read anymore,” he said. “Forty percent of the people in the U.S. read one book or less last year. The whole conception is flawed at the top because people don’t read anymore.”

The Passion of Steve Jobs – NYTimes.com

It was almost exactly three years ago that Steve Jobs dismissed the Kindle reader as a futile attempt to change user behavior.

Yesterday, Steve Jobs announced that the iBooks store served 100 million ebooks in its first 11 months of operations.

So do we have another example of Steve’s classic misdirection where he dismisses a category only to enter and dominate it at some later time?

Let’s look at the data. The chart below shows the sales ramp of three media types served by Apple: songs, apps and books. Continue reading “Apps are 15 times more popular than ebooks”

Lookout ZTE and Huawei: Here come NEC, Sharp and Kyocera

Sony Ericsson, NEC and Kyocera are among the other Japanese handset makers also betting on Android as their path to international sales.

via Japanese Phone Makers Look to Ride Android’s Surge – NYTimes.com.

The Japanese positioning is based on the notion that current Android phones are not good enough and that they can bring “great hardware, great R&D and great engineers” to solve the existing problems with Android portfolio phones.

That’s an interesting observation by Google’s own director of Android Global Partnerships. The idea that the market can still reward hardware innovation would also imply that Apple could benefit from that demand.

So is the message that there is still room for device innovation?

Perhaps not. Perhaps Android’s pursuit of Japanese vendors (and vice-versa) is just evidence of the rush into smartphones by those possessing excess hardware R&D and manufacturing capacity and a deficit of software assets.

It’s still striking that there are hundreds of hardware vendors and supposedly “only two” platforms.

Nokia: We depend on uninformed customers, deception preserves brand value and uncompetitive software will keep us competitive

In a previous post I asked whether Nokia’s strategy is dependent on a “built-in assumption that end users are inherently stupid.”

Nokia confirmed that this is indeed the case. Continue reading “Nokia: We depend on uninformed customers, deception preserves brand value and uncompetitive software will keep us competitive”

Asymco Interactive

Ever since I started publishing this blog there have been requests for access to the underlying data sets. That’s not an easy thing to do. Spreadsheets are not “productized”. It’s very hard to explain how to use one and even harder for charts. Having been an user of commercial spreadsheet models, I know that it’s a massive undertaking to produce and support them. Many large companies can afford this but few individuals would be willing to pay $15,000 for an analyst’s data.

In many cases even at large companies professional information services staff are employed to master the data sets and answer questions for the general user. The complexity and cost of comprehensive market research is a huge burden for innovation in analysis.

As an independent analyst, I’ve struggled with the question of how to provide this access to a large audience on any device.

Fortunately, modern browsers have the capability to allow interaction with rich charts. Inspired companies are taking advantage of this and implementing data viewers which extend the way users can visualize complex data. Timetric is one such company.

Over the past few months we’ve worked together to find a way to deliver Asymco charts and data as an interactive and downloadable product.

Our first result is this report: Mobile Phone Market Overview: Q4 2010

The video below highlights the main features of the Asymco Interactive report:

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maNxiXmKVTA

Why operators will find it hard to sell tablets

On the eve of iPad 2.0, it’s time to think again about this curious new computer. My intuition tells me that this product category will behave very differently from the iPhone and will not be subject to the same sales ramp.

The iPad has been on the market for less than a year but it’s still a puzzle for many. It’s a product that’s often seen as an iPhone product line extension. From a hardware point of view, it certainly seems to be. It has an almost identical internal architecture and uses almost the same software. An engineer would look at it and reasonably say it’s the same thing.

However, from the way it’s used and the way it’s sold, it has very little in common with its smaller cousin. There are plenty of experts who can detail how the products are used differently, but I would highlight the portability of the iPhone makes it suitable for a completely different set of tasks than the less portable but more immersive iPad.

But what I want to dwell on here is how differently the products are sold. Continue reading “Why operators will find it hard to sell tablets”

The platform as a promise

In a recent answer on quora, I wrote that I did not believe developers are tempted primarily by economic incentives when choosing which platforms to work on. I suggested that they hire platforms because of their star-making potential and that star-making value is not a something that money can buy. Using Hollywood as an example I suggested that subsidies decrease the perceived value of a talent-oriented platform.

The notion that a platform signals meaning to developers led me to think about how mobile platforms signal meaning to consumers. I have a hypothesis that platforms can and should be treated as brands. This point of view allows platform orchestrators to develop a comprehensive market-driven strategy for platforms that transcends technical debate.

Continue reading “The platform as a promise”

Google and Apple as mobile co-belligerents

The relationship between Google and Apple is an interesting one. It’s enticing to declare them “at war” with one another, but that type of relationship does not account for the collaboration and partnerships they enjoy. To wit:

  • Google pays Apple for default Search placement on Safari. This means that Google treats Apple as a distributor.
  • We can presume that there is a deal between the two over Gmail and Maps on the iPhone as well.
  • AdMob is available on iOS without hindrance.

The business relationships between the two companies are self-evident. However, I would suggest that there are more important strategic reasons why Google and Apple are in fact implicitly collaborating against a common goal.

The concept of “co-belligerence” may describe the relationship: Continue reading “Google and Apple as mobile co-belligerents”

Nokia's Burning Ships strategy

In the recent series of exposés on Nokia’s new strategy I sought to paint a background for what caused such a dramatic decision:

This gives a backdrop to the decision, but it does not explain the most crucial part of the decision: why did Stephen Elop decide to maintain an exclusive platform for Nokia rather than a multi-platform approach as chosen by successful competitors such as HTC, Samsung and Sony Ericsson. Continue reading “Nokia's Burning Ships strategy”

Platform sunk (cost): What is the value of a quarter billion Symbian users?

In the quarterly smartphone summary published here, I noted the significant acceleration of Android sales at the expense of “other” and Windows Mobile/Phone. Some share was also lost to Symbian. This might be seen as justification for the “platform jump” that Nokia undertook.

In a second discussion, I published the history and life cycles of the smartphone platforms, identifying 10 platforms (out of 16) still in the market. This challenged the view that it was a two horse race today and that it will become no more than a three horse race in the future.

Questions came up about the “quality” of these platforms. Clearly some are barely viable while some are thriving. To explain the value of a platform, one metric we can use is the cumulative sales which allows us to derive the installed base.

The following charts do just that. Continue reading “Platform sunk (cost): What is the value of a quarter billion Symbian users?”