Bertel Schmitt, industry propagandist, journalist and legend joins us for a rousing conversation on production, low-end cars, Tesla, and the Great ‘Round-the-globe Automotive Factory tour Tour.
One of the most fun shows I’ve ever recorded. Highly recommended.
Listen here.
The incomparable Citroen DS (French homophone: déesse), 60 years old this year. Hydropneumatic, self-levelling suspension aerodynamic and interior design efficiency, swiveling headlights, novel construction methods. Ahead of its time even in 1985. Why did this iconic design not endure?
We use this parable to analyze Apple Car rumors.
Like a siren, it calls.
The Auto Industry is significant. With gross revenues of over $2 trillion, production of over 66 million vehicles and growing1 it seems to be a big, juicy target. It employs 9 million people directly and 50 million indirectly and politically it must rank among the top three industries worthy of government subsidy (or interference). Indeed, in many countries–the US included–government interference makes it practically impossible for a producer to go out of business, no matter how poorly it’s managed or how untenable the market conditions.
But this might be the tell-tale sign that danger lurks. Theory suggests that incumbents going out of business is an essential indicator of industry health. Without their exit, entrants are never allowed to bring disruptive ideas to bear and innovation simply stops. Is this interference with mortality the only indication of entrant obstacles? Are things about to change? Is there pressure for innovation? Can we spot other indications of a crisis in this industry?
Taking the US as a proxy, here is a graph of the number of new car firm entries (and exits):
The total number of firms2 that entered the US market is 1,556. The blue line graph shows the entries and the orange line shows the exits. This sounds impressive, but note that the year when the peak of entries took place was 1914, exactly 100 years ago. Continue reading “The Entrant’s Guide to The Automobile Industry”
Gartner asserts that “connected cars or smart cars are poised to play a pivotal role in the Internet of Things (IoT)”. We say “Hah!”
Also,
via Asymcar 21: Where we’re going, we don’t need roads | Asymcar.
I recall details of a recent Tesla Model S test drive while evaluating their innovation on jobs to be done, form factor, design, production methods and their business model.
(Also, other goings on with Uber, BMW and Porsche).
What motivates a company to destroy its brand?
We start with Mini’s plans to sell 100,000 cars in the States by 2020, nearly double today’s pace and remember how Cadillac destroyed their brand and how Mercedes, Porsche, Ferrari et. al. can’t wait to do the same.
Also, might retail power in the form of strong dealer regulation limit brand’s ability to improve or address customer experiences? What motivated Warren Buffet to enter the American car dealer business? (With a long aside on what Buffett investment logic is all about and why it’s not contradictory to a growth investor).
Why did the Tata Nano fail? What is the future of low end disruption in the auto industry?
What does sharing mean for cars? What are the jobs that spaces in cars are hired for that their makers don’t understand?
Is Elon Musk an Industrialist?
Part I is a review of the “automotive stack” and note how there is no singular event that seems to affect disruptive change. From changing jobs to be done, modular design and manufacturing processes, powertrain evolution, urbanization, environmental interests, regulation and taxation.
Part II is a review of a framework of analysis based on sources and uses of energy. Inputs, efficiency/losses, network effects and inertia, what can change and what can’t change.
For a shot of theory, Horace reflects on the dichotomy of efficiency vs. efficacy when it comes to predicting change in the sector.
Matt Grantham joins us to discuss electric vehicles, renewable energy, smarter software, solar opportunities and economics. Matt introduces us to Solar X, the solar car challenge. He reflects on these emerging technologies in light of Australia’s nearly extinct auto manufacturing sector.
We explore the concept of a car as the home power source and consider possible EV disruption of traditional power generation and distribution concerns. The potential business models arising from these emerging technologies makes us pause in light of solar firm’s stock performance.
An interview with Ossi Oikarinen, Technical Director at Team Rosberg, a 30-year veteran of motorsport, Formula One TV presenter and deep insider.
We cover Grand Prix racing and DTM touring cars from the point of view of business models, jobs to be done and technical innovations. We touch on many other fine points.
This is a good one.
via Asymcar 14: Grand Prix. An interview with Ossi Oikarinen | Asymcar.
