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20 Million iOS devices sold in about 2.5 months

On June 7th, 2010, at WWDC, Apple announced that they will have sold 100 million iOS devices some time during June 2010. Today, September 1st, Apple announced that 120 million iOS devices have been sold.

Assuming that 100 million was crossed half-way through June, then the additional 20 million units must have been sold during half of June, and all of July and August. That’s approximately 20 million over 75 days or 267k units per day.

Apple also announced that there are 230k new iOS activations per day which seems consistent given that they classify these as “new” activations.

There is one huge implication of this figure:  Forecasts for iPhone, iPad and iPods may be too low. I had forecast 20 million units for the entire quarter (12.1 million iPhones, 4 million iPads and about 4 million iPod touch). The iPhone figure assumed 65% y/y growth at that looks way too low. There is still another month in the quarter meaning that the total could be 30% too low.

I will be updating the forecast accordingly.

Apple unable to keep up with iPhone 4 demand

$50 billion in cash and Apple execs bawling that they can’t ship enough product.

“iPhone 4 demand remains very robust and despite efforts to close the supply-demand imbalance and the continued supply ramp, Apple still cannot meet iPhone demand,”

via Apple unable to keep up with iPhone 4 demand, say execs | MacNN.

22 Million iPads in F2011

Ghai now estimates that Apple will sell 5.75 million iPads in the quarter that ends Sept. 25, up from an earlier estimate of 5 million, and 22 million in fiscal 2011, up from 19.5 million.

via The iPad as Trojan horse – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Tech.

That’s very close to my estimate of 21 million, though I might add that my estimate is unrevised since US supply met demand. There are still markets which don’t have iPad distribution however, so we’ll see if global demand can be met before year end.

By the way, the estimate of 5.75 million for this quarter is higher than all but three of 14 analysts estimates on iPad unit forecasts *for the first year*.

ADD this: Apple's P/E punishment

Apple’s continuing valuation struggle continues to fascinate. While underperforming on a multiple basis both the S&P 500 and its own historic value, Apple is nearing bargain bin pricing.

To illustrate this further, get the new Asymco Data Download for the iPhone.

You can now use an iPhone to visualize how the owners of the company that created it are being punished.

Apple devices take 41% of mobile traffic in Finland

In first half of 2010, iPhone and iPod touch traffic increased from 33.9% to 41% in Finland. Apple’s devices account for a very small percent of the total phones in use in Nokia’s home country.[1] The analysis was performed by QAim on a sample of 64 million “mobile downloads”.

Google Translate.

Original article in Finnish.

“A wave of iPhone and iPod owners behave differently than others.”

Weird bunch, those iPhone owners…

[1] Installed base of iPhone is small but share of smartphones in recent quarters is above 20%.  See: YLE: Nokia’s smartphone share crumbles in Finland

Apple trading at a discount to the S&P 500

Flush with $45 billion in cash and investments ($50 per share) and no debt, Apple sports an enterprise value of about $190 per share. Compare that to $15 of earnings this year and enough catalysts to make next year’s estimate of $18 seem easily attainable, and you have a stock that actually trades at a discount to the S&P 500.

via Why Apple’s Stock Actually Looks Cheap — Seeking Alpha.

This is not news around here…

Breaking Android: How Google's lack of control affects their value chain

A few years ago I read a book called “Breaking Windows” which was the story of the DOJ investigation into Microsoft’s abuse of monopoly. The book was written by a journalist who tried to summarize some of the findings from the published internal emails.

One of the takeaways was the logic of Microsoft’s entry into the Office market. The main internal justification was not that it would be a hugely lucrative new business, but that it was a necessity to the maintenance of the Windows business.

The story was that Lotus, having a huge installed base, could (and did) arbitrarily refuse to upgrade their software to the latest Windows version and in so doing, could kill the franchise. Lotus owned the “killer app” and Continue reading “Breaking Android: How Google's lack of control affects their value chain”

HTC: How Taiwan Compares

Taiwanese operators Chunghwa Telecom and Taiwan Mobile have reported much interest in iPhone 4 pre-orders. Both operators announced at 9pm on 26 August they would open pre-ordering at 10am on 27 August and both operators saw their websites crash, the China Post reports. By noon, some 10,000 users had signed up with Chunghwa Telecom and by 11am Taiwan Mobile had sold out all of its 3,000 iPhone 4 handsets available for pre-ordering. Rival Far EasTone said between 30,000 and 40,000 people signed up for a phone on its website and the operator will notify people that will be able to get the handset.

Taiwan Mobile sells out of iPhone 4 pre-orders – Telecompaper.

The next 100 million iOS devices part II

Brian Marshall, an analyst with investment firm Gleacher & Co., predicts that Apple will have sold 200 million iOS devices by this time next year. He expects the iPhone and iPad to represent 68 percent of gross margins for 2010.

via Apple’s mobile OS could move to more devices.

My expectations for the next 100 million were made in June:

My expectation is that well over 100 million iOS devices will sell during 2011, but even during the next 12 months (2H ’10 and 1H ’11) the total may well reach 100 million, making 200 million installed by June 2011 very likely.

The next 100 million iOS devices

My current expectation is that iPhone and iPad will account for 70 million additional iOS units for the twelve months following this June quarter. This excludes any Apple TV units moving to iOS.

As iOS moves to more of the iPod line-up it’s quite possible that another 30 million iPads with iOS will ship in the same time frame making Marshall’s forecast sound reasonable.

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