“You could buy your way in, if you are Microsoft,” he said. “This is a market where a deep balance sheet will help Microsoft determine where they want to go.”
He notes a good marketing campaign can do wonders for adoption, with Ehud predicting Microsoft will hit 15% market share in 2012 (about the same as the iPhone’s share now)
“With [Microsoft’s] resources, I think they can sustain double-digit market share,” he said.
He notes Microsoft, with $36.8 billion in the bank, could win market share in multiple other ways, including subsidizing phone costs.
He still however predicts Android will lead the pack with 30%, Apple next with 25%, and RIM, Nokia and Microsoft all having 15% of the market.
via Morgan Stanley analyst predicts Microsoft will triple smartphone market share in 2 years.
There you have it: users are so easily persuaded that a platform purchasing decision can be acquired via small outlays of cash for ads and subsidies for vendors and operators.
ZDNet reports Sony Ericsson are abandoning Symbian for Android, and Samsung headed down the Android and Bada road a while back. There are precious few device manufacturers remaining as foundation members, e.g. ZTE, Sharp and Compal, none of whom are exactly trend-setting industry leaders.
via The Symbian open source experiment has failed [Gartner].
I was going to ask what happened to ‘Open always wins?’ but decided against it.
What I will say is that open sourcing Symbian was not a new beginning for the platform but the beginning of the end. I don’t think anybody seriously considered it a viable multi-vendor platform, least of all Nokia.
I’m willing to bet that Google pays between $5 to $10 per iPhone for the privilege of default search. I think that’s where Schmidt got the figure for what Android is worth. It also makes sense given the rumor that surfaced that Google paid $100 million for the default search placement in the first round.
Via Appleinsider: Google extends deal with Apple to remain default iPhone search.
In the last article I described growth vs. P/E and price change for the largest “ultra-large cap” companies, of which Apple features prominent.
In this article I take the same analysis to the top ten largest technology companies (by market cap, see table at bottom).
In this comparison, Apple no longer has the largest P/E ratio. Qualcomm, Google and Oracle are all at similar levels of valuation relative to earnings, however Apple’s growth outstrips them, only with Google in the same quadrant.
Note the “Wintel” cohort consisting of Intel, Microsoft, HP clustered around the Low growth, low valuation quadrant in the lower left (coincidentally co-located with IBM). Oracle, Qualcomm and Siemens show high valuation with low long-term EPS growth. Cisco is somewhat on the fence.
When comparing how the market has rewarded growth through share price appreciation, the correlation to growth is much better. Google seems under-rewarded.