Updated AMP Index for Q2

This is an updated view of the AMP index including Q2 data. As a reminder, the AMP (Asymco Mobile Performance) index is an unweighted average of four “shares”:

  1. Share of all handset units sold (global)
  2. Share of smartphones
  3. Share of value (revenues)
  4. Share of profits

You can see the last quarter’s standings here.

The updated index figures and spark lines are shown also on the right-most column on this site.

The biggest mover was Nokia which dropped 6.5 points. The second mover was Apple, with a gain of 3.2. Samsung followed with a gain of 1.38 and LG with a 1.21 and HTC with a gain of 0.95.

RIM lost about 1 point and Motorola and Sony Ericsson remained nearly flat.

The plunge in Nokia’s AMP score is nearly matched by Apple’s gain over the four year time period observed.

The full picture of each component is shown below:

  • I find it interesting that both for Apple and Nokia the biggest driver of growth/fall in AMP is share of profits. I interpret it as Nokia feature phone users switching to smartphones and Apple profiting the most out of it. I assume that switchers pick phones based on the smartphone share distribution and so Apple’s margins are driving its profit share up while the Android manufacturers gain share but not that much in profits.

    • EWPellegrino

      There's a bit more to it. It's probably mostly because the industry has many zombie firms operating at break-even or loss, so profits are more concentrated, this means that those firms that are still profitable inevitably exhibit higher volatility in profit share than they do in revenue share, this will obviously be most significant in the firms with the highest margins.

      This is all part of the channel inertia effect that Horace has mentioned several times. In other industries, when a player is falling on hard times you see decreases in both margins and market share – but in handsets you tend to see market share holding up but margins crashing, until profits hit zero, then market share starts a long slow decline.

    • asymco

      Nokia's problems are significant and go beyond the secular shift to smartphones. My interpretation is that the brand is suffering.

      • CndnRschr

        Methinks that is the understatement of the year unless you are using the same dictionary to define "suffering" that Google uses to define "open".

      • asymco

        My comment was too terse. I meant that the problem is the loss of brand value which is very difficult thing to earn once lost. The company does not even talk about its brand much and believes that they still have equity there simply because they used to have it.

      • CndnRschr

        Completely agree. Nokia's brand is being hit on two fronts. Firstly, it is seen as having sold its soul to Microsoft. Secondly, it is retreating at a remarkable pace because it simply doesn't have competitive products in the market. A bunch of people were willing to put up to some extent with the various excuses that Nokia came up with for the delays in Meemo but my bet is that few of those people who actually cared about Nokia as a company were impressed with the Hail Mary throw into the arms of Redmond.

        It looks like the first Nokia WP7 phones will be less than impressive as well:

      • Waveney

        Terse is good – and makes the rest of us think just a little harder.
        These charts get better and better and cut directly across the bows of companies that would like to fool us with spin. Thanks Horace, we are all wiser for your efforts.

  • davel

    You changed your logo!

    • jonshf

      Yes, but the favicon.ico (the little icon that browsers show in the address bar etc) is still the same and more similar to the old logo with a bright green color.

      The new logo should lend itself easily to a new and distinctive favicon.

      • EWPellegrino

        The new logo looks like some kind of chocolate bar with embedded smarties/M&Ms. It's going to start making me hungry 🙁

      • jonshf

        The favicon.ico has been changed ( but the icon that appears is still the old one. The page specifically uses the following location for the favicon file:

        That's the file that needs to be changed for standard browsers – or specify the other location.

    • praev

      I dislike this new logo. Too much stuff going on.

  • famousringo

    I've been waiting for this one.

    I keep wondering what's going to happen to the clear losers, like SE and Moto. They don't seem capable of turning around, and nobody seems interested in acquiring them. Are they just going to keep fizzling until they declare bankruptcy and auction off their IP?

    And how low is Nokia going to go? With a trendline like that, it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid dropping below 10%. At least they still have a ghost of a chance to stay in the market.

    • I watch MMI pretty closely with the same context.

      But they DO pull rabbits out of the hat from time to time; the announcement a couple of days ago that they had a China-targeted Android phone, for example, supposedly well-targeted to the multiple hundreds of millions they would like to serve.

      And of course, the original Droid, the one that put Verizon into the smartphone business.

      What will be interesting to see is how well the Droid 3 does. As a high-end Android phone, it competes more directly with today's iPhone. That horserace ought to be a good measure as to how segmented the US smartphone marketplace is.

      • EWPellegrino

        I think it's a big problem for Moto that Verizon have started applying the 'Droid' label to other OEMs' phones. Their only successful brand since the RAZR and it's not actually their brand.

    • asymco

      I actually believe that the SE and Moto brands will end up being sold and the IP assets broken up.

      • famousringo


        That was quick.

  • Yay for the more modern "composite" market share "AMP Index."

    All us asymco fans need to leave comments on sites that still refer to single market shares to get both the site and the viewers to understand that citing a single market share is only okay if you want to focus on a single element of the picture for a moment, but increasingly bad if you want to understand and comment on the bigger (more realistic) picture overall.

    • claimchowder

      I agree but let us not point directly at this site: having experienced the dramatic signal-to-noise ratio when the Internet became a commodity I would prefer we keep this wonderful site our little secret. The discussions here are so fruitous precisely because the audience is currently limited to mostly very intelligent individuals. I am afraid we would end up with a lot of flame wars (Android vs iOS etc.) much like the old RISC vs CISC debates, and many people talking before or even without thinking.

      And Horace would have to do a whole lot of banning…

      • CndnRschr

        Asymo is hardly a secret (338,000 Google items). It has referrals from major players and Horace has been called upon to comment on various news reports in the media so I assume his profile is growing and is being recognized (its about time). As for maintaining order, the S/N ratio here is high enough that N is quickly recognized and dismissed/ignored. Plenty of room for more readers – send them over!

  • Amen to that! Why cloud an easy black/white discussion with actual composites, you know, the complicated reasons that drive customers 🙂

    • I think Horace has done a great job with this index. It's not perfect, but it's far better than any of the components taken individually.

  • Oases

    Is it your site code or my iOS browser that’s preventing me from pinch-to-zooming? Either way, could you please add a ‘Switch to full site’ button on the mobile site so I can see those smaller graphs?

    • Relayman5C

      I just clicked on one of the smaller graphs to get an expanded image.

  • claimchowder

    It does work on both iPhone and iPad here, so I assume it has to do with neither. I had a similar problem with a different site. That went away after one month (the problem, not the site), so it may have been related to some cookie that expired after 30 days. Maybe it's the same here.

  • Interesting composite scores. Keep up the good work.

  • So what happened to LG in the summer of 2009? Quite the bell curve they've ridden over the last few years.

    • Famousringo

      LG made a big play in dumb phones at pretty much the worst possible time. They seized a nice slice of share, made some money, and then dumb phones became fully commoditized and their profits went up in smoke.

      Now they're finally chasing the smartphone train as it pulls out of the station. The great laggard of the phone industry. At least they can always sell parts to the real movers.

  • I look at the RIM chart and think, maybe there's still time for them to pull out of the dive. They have a sound strategy (moving to LNX) and they *could* catch up. Then I remember they're in the "blowing smoke up investors' butts business" and not serious about actually making a sellable product. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns!

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