Google reported a new activation rate milestone: 1 million/day.
The rate of activations has been increasing steadily which leads to a question: how high can it go?
The answer is easy to determine. It can go no higher than the sales rate of phones and tablets and PCs. So what’s that sales rate? The answer is to take sales (shipments actually) per category and cast the data as “activations”.
The result is shown in the chart below:
Defined as “activations” device and computers are being adopted at the rate of about 5.6 million units per day.
Dan and Horace reflect on the Osbourne effect of Windows Phone 8 on Nokia and how to value a company in distress. In particular, we talk about the potential of a Microsoft acquisition and the conditions needed to make it happen. Horace takes two reader questions: How did Samsung succeed while other vendors failed with Android and what are the pitfalls that could cause Apple to stumble.
via 5by5 | The Critical Path #44: White Knights and White Nights.
This week Mr. Dediu was a guest on The Web Ahead (another 5by5 show hosted by Jen Simmons) where he discussed how the forces of disruption apply to the web. It was an interesting discussion as usual, but if you’re pressed for time you should turn your attention to the bit after the sixty-five minute mark, when Horace volunteers some of his thoughts on the web vs. native application platforms.
via Horace Dediu on HTML5 vs. native apps « uniform zulu zero zero.
A fair summary of what I said and rebuttals by @falameufilho
Today I was a guest on Jen Simmons’ The Web Ahead. It was a chance to discuss some of the big questions facing the Web in general especially vis-à-vis apps and mobile in general.
How can we understand the business of the web? Horace Dediu joins Jen to talk about the web through the lens of disruption theory, discussing innovation and jobs to be done. Along the way we get into advertisement on the web, and the old website vs native app debate.
via 5by5 | The Web Ahead #24: Jobs the Web Does with Horace Dediu.
There is no shortage of information about what happens to companies in distress. The cause of distress varies widely and is often not well understood but the actions and symptoms of distress are very consistent. We can look at examples in each industry, even in each product category for a rich set of distressed company data.
For over a year I’ve been chronicling the decline of incumbents in the mobile phone industry. However, decline cannot continue indefinitely. At some point a company “exits” the industry. Either through a sale or divestiture or, rarely bankruptcy. The list of exits is already long. The length and the correlation between exit and the lack of recovery implies that Nokia will also exit.
But how, exactly?
Will Nokia be acquired? If so, then by whom? What other options exist? How can we analyze this?