Year: 2010

Supporting Asymco

I’ve received many supportive comments following the Fortune piece. Many also worried that the site is fragile due to a lack of income.  I’d like to put those worries to rest.

First, I want to state one goal for the site which defines my attitude toward how to monetize it: I intend this site to be a useful resource to the reader.

From utility comes value. I want readers to obtain value with a high signal/noise ratio. Unless well targeted, advertising drives up the noise factor and lowers usefulness. I would only accept advertising if it improved the value to the reader. Since ad networks will push ads over which I have no control I cannot be sure that they are adding value and not contradicting my content. But as you see in the right-most column, I do accept advertisements (sponsors) whose message I can evaluate and curate. You can be a sponsor (see the sponsorship page for a measure of what value you can gain from exposure through Asymco).

Second, there is also another way to support Asymco: if you use iTunes, do your music, movies, app or TV show shopping through the affiliate link in my site. It’s the App Store logo in the upper right corner. Or bookmark this link: Support Asymco by buying content. I receive a commission of up to 5% from any purchase made through that link. It has already been enough to pay for my hosting.

Third, there are also indirect ways in which I derive value from Asymco. I offer consulting, data and services to clients directly. If you are interested in any of these feel free to contact me directly by email.

Thanks to all who read and contribute comments to this site. The biggest value to me is the learning I get from interacting with the readers.

Nokia's moderate-intelligence-phone performance

A complete market overview will follow when all the top tier vendors report the last quarter, but in the mean-time here are some data that are available:

Smartphone volumes for Nokia, Apple and RIM: Continue reading “Nokia's moderate-intelligence-phone performance”

The new king of Apple analysts – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Tech

The new king of Apple analysts – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Tech.

My thanks to Philip Elmer-DeWitt but I think he is not right in proclaiming a King. Credit is due to all the other blogger analysts who inspire and push analysis forward.

The  lines were nothing but a commercial advertisement, but they very well describe this group that opened the eyes of the world:

Here’s to the crazy ones,

the misfits,
the rebels,
the troublemakers.
The round pegs in the square holes.
The ones who see things differently.

They’re not fond of rules
and they have no respect for the status quo.

You can quote them,
disagree with them,
glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can’t do
is ignore them,
because they change things.
They push the human race forward.

And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius.

Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world
are the ones who do.

“Crazy Ones“, directed by Chiat/Day’s Jennifer Golub who also shared the art director credit with Jessica Schulman and Yvonne Smith. The familiar voiceover was by Richard Dreyfuss. See the video here.

Visualizing iPad vs Mac

The iPad outsold the Mac after two quarters in the market. It’s important to understand the effect the iPad is having on PCs. Data is trickling in that potential notebook buyers are “postponing” purchases due to the iPad. The netbook market has witnessed a significant slowing which has trickled down to the performance of everybody in the value chain, from Microsoft, to PC vendors, Intel, AMD and retailers.

So naturally we need to ask how it has affected the Mac.

The following chart shows how the iPad has outsold the Mac the past quarter. Continue reading “Visualizing iPad vs Mac”

Estimates for Apple's first quarter earnings (January)

Oppenheimer on the concall:

We expect revenue to be about $23 billion compared to $15.7 billion in the December quarter last year. We expect gross margins to be about 36%. We expect OpEx to be about $2.325 billion.

We expect OI&E to be about $65 million. And we expect the tax rate to be about 25.5%. We’re targeting EPS of about $4.80.

Here are my expectations: Continue reading “Estimates for Apple's first quarter earnings (January)”

63 percent of iPhones were sold outside the US in Q3

[AT&T] activated 5.2 million iPhones in the wake of the iPhone 4 launch, or about a 62.5 percent leap over an already record spring

via AT&T blows past records, activates 5.2m iPhones in summer | Electronista.

This means 63% of iPhones sold outside the US last quarter.  This is down from about 70% earlier this year. As it was a launch quarter and distribution was much more constrained outside the US, the lower figure is not surprising.

It’s still important to note however that sales outside the US are far larger than in the US but penetration and share is far less.

Analysts predict iPad sales (part IV)

So far Apple has sold 7.458 million iPads and there is still a quarter remaining in the calendar year. The highest forecast immediately after the launch of the product was 7 million.

For the record, in January I forecast 6 million units for calendar 2010 (and 10 million in first 12 months of sales).

All analysts polled grossly underestimated the iPad. My impression is that competitors are still in denial. Continue reading “Analysts predict iPad sales (part IV)”

Deagol: Fiscal 4Q '10 actual results vs. estimates

Comprehensive and thoughtful review of the performance of the analyst cohorts in predicting Apple’s quarter:

Deagol’s AAPL Model: Fiscal 4Q ’10 actual results vs. estimates.

By Daniel Tello’s ranking I was first in Q2 but 8th (out of 38) in Q3. Overall, bloggers beat Pros but by a lower margin than in the past.

I have been ok at estimating product line performance and top line sales but not so good in guessing margins. Last quarter I went for a high iPhone number (13 million vs 14.1 actual and 11.39 Pro/12.07 Blogger consensus) and middle-of-pack on iPads (5 million vs. 4.2 actual and 4.79 Pro/5.52 Blogger consensus). The total iOS units I forecast was 18 million and Apple sold 18.3 so I was fine on units and pricing.

My guess on the cause of my estimate failure on margins was iPhone 4 rollout ramp. I had to take iPhone margin down to below 50% (about 49%) to make the reported total GM. iPhone has been, on average, running at 52% over the life of the product.

PED’s rankings are here.