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Author: Horace Dediu

iOS users are ten times more likely to download apps than Symbian users

With the number of active Nokia service users now reaching 140 million worldwide, the company today announced that more than 200,000 people are currently signing up daily to Ovi, and that Ovi Store has reached the milestone of 2.3 million downloads per day. Available in more than 190 countries,

via Nokia Ovi Services Continue to Grow.

Nokia updated its tally of download rates so we can put the numbers side-by-side with Apple’s iTunes. Continue reading “iOS users are ten times more likely to download apps than Symbian users”

Is Android share of Web lagging iOS share of Web?

Of all the public statistics about platform share, Share of web use must be the most important measure for Google. The more browsing people do, the more searching they do and if Google search is most likely for a platform then the more income Google derives from that platform.

NetMarketshare.com has offered an insight into the split between Android and iOS as search platforms and it shows how iOS is still five times more likely to yield search revenue than Android. That multiple is likely to shrink as the gap narrows, but it still demonstrates the power of iOS to drive Google’s bottom line. It’s no wonder then why Google has renewed their default placement of Google search in mobile Safari (a guarantee they don’t seem to share with all Android licensees.)

But Android launched later than iPhone, so everyone should be asking how rapidly the share of Continue reading “Is Android share of Web lagging iOS share of Web?”

Android licensees: If you're not paying, you're being sold

The latest litigation lollapalooza over Android reminds one of the old web adage that if you’re not paying for content, you’re the asset being sold.

That’s certainly one of the consequences of the Android licensing model. The mobile phone vendors with no software intellectual property are pawns in a game between IP holders. It’s clear that Microsoft and Apple and Oracle (and perhaps Nokia) have IP issues with Google. But it’s the licensee device vendors which are most often the accused. Whether Google indemnifies or not is an open question, but the evidence is that the vendors are exposed.

The proof is in the fact that HTC is paying Microsoft for the use of Android. It’s conceivable that Microsoft also asked Motorola for Android royalty payments but were rebuffed. It’s also possible Continue reading “Android licensees: If you're not paying, you're being sold”

Microsoft suits target Android phones

Microsoft Corp. said Friday it has filed patent-infringement lawsuits with the International Trade Commission and in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington against Motorola Inc., targeting Motorola mobile phones based on Google Inc.’s Android software

via Microsoft suits target Android phones – MarketWatch.

This follows infringement suits by Apple against HTC targeting Android and by Nokia against Apple targeting GSM patents (with obligatory counter-suits, of course.)

There was a time when Motorola was a key design win for Microsoft and their Windows Mobile in 2003 with the MPx series. In fact, Motorola still ships Windows Mobile devices like the ES400 and FR68. These are for industrial applications but there were many mainstream Motorola Windows Mobile volume products. The most famous perhaps was the MOTO Q in 2006.

I’m sure part of the value pitch for Windows Phone is indemnification from IP infringement. Windows Phone will be the only licensed OS that offers this coverage and it’s a non-trivial selling point.

Is Google's income from the iPhone offsetting its losses from Android: Cataloging Google's non-Google Phones

Google has created a partial list of phones that run Google services.

Google Phone Gallery.

I notice with interest that it’s called a Google Phone Gallery not an Android Phone Gallery.

What’s more, there is a distinction of All Phones and Phones “with Google”. Of course that implies that we can get a list of Google Phones “without Google” (or maybe more accurately, “with partial Google”).

To clarify, according to Google there are three categories of Android Phones: Continue reading “Is Google's income from the iPhone offsetting its losses from Android: Cataloging Google's non-Google Phones”

Apple's segmentation strategy, and the folly of conventional wisdom

This mindset is compelling because it is simple and familiar, but it also leads to blind obsequiousness.

Historical edifices are held as indelible fact. “It’s Microsoft v. Apple all over again.” “There has to be one absolute, dominant leader.” “Open will always prevail — and should prevail — over proprietary systems.” “Market share matters above all else. Even profits.”

…it helps to see the continuum of connected devices from the perspective of their means of mobility; namely, whether they are wear-able, pocket-able, bag-able or portable.

[Apple] target specific user experiences, and build the product around that accordingly.

via Apple’s segmentation strategy, and the folly of conventional wisdom – O’Reilly Radar.

Lots of concepts that readers of this blog should find familiar ground.

Unix's Revenge

With QNX now firmly roadmapped at RIM and Android spreading among vendors like a virus, I wanted to point out that these operating systems share one ancestor: Unix.

A technical triumph

Technically Linux, which underlies Android, among others, is walled off from Unix from an IP point of view, but the philosophical and architectural lineage goes back to 1969’s Unix. It was an amazingly well thought-out operating system which has stood the test of time mostly due to its modular architecture. It was not always clear that Unix would make it this far, and in many ways it was written off. Continue reading “Unix's Revenge”

Correlating Innovation and Share Prices

In the last article on the P/E ratio vs. Growth for some of the largest companies, the question of PEG came up. PEG is the P/E over Growth and it’s a good way to index valuation relative to growth. Usually Growth is measured as the forward twelve months consensus and a PEG of 1 is, as a rule of thumb, considered “fair value”. However, forward growth is based on possibly inaccurate analyst consensus. If we instead look at historic growth, we have some actual performance to evaluate. Let’s call this PEhG for P/E over historic Growth.

The following chart shows 30 large cap technology companies[1] and their five-year compound EPS growth vs. their current P/E multiples. If we draw a line at the PEhG of 1, i.e. when the P/E ratio is equal to the historic growth rate and split the pack into PEhG > 1 (overvalued)[2] and PehG < 1 (undervalued), we have the following split:

The chart makes for an interesting Continue reading “Correlating Innovation and Share Prices”

Amazon App Store For Android

Yep, Amazon Launching Their Own App Store For Android Too.

No surprises here. Amazon, a retailer, is building a retail experience for apps. They are taking Android and throwing away Google’s app store and a few other things as well and making their own tablet while at it.

Maybe they’ll put Bing on it and Facebook too.