Apple vs. Exxon-Mobil

Tim Cook :

We can put all of our products on the table you’re sitting at. Those products together sell $40 billion per year. No other company can make that claim except perhaps an oil company.

We are the most focused company that I know of, or have read of, or have any knowledge of.

We say no to good ideas every day; we say no to great ideas; to keep the number of things we focus on small in number.

Goldman Sachs technology conference, February 2010.

100 Million Windows Mobile Devices

by 2007. The goal was set 6 years and 3 months ago:

On November 3, 2003, Microsoft announced that it intends to sell 100 million Windows Mobile devices by year 2007. This goal has been set by Steve Ballmer. Majority of Windows Mobile devices that are expected to be sold will be smarpthones, not just PDAs (Pocket PC). :: 100 million mobile Windows devices by 2007

Two years after that goal, in 2009, Microsoft sold 15 million units, down from 16.5 million in 2008.

AppleInsider | Gartner: Apple’s iPhone was No. 3 worldwide smartphone in 2009

Microsoft and Nokia agree: Apple is hindering Innovation in Mobile market

From the GSMA Mobile World Congress 2009 (one year ago):

Kallasvuo used Apple and its “closed” ecosystem as an example of what could limit innovation in the mobile market in the future. He said Apple’s vertically integrated model, where its hardware and software are tightly controlled by the company, further fragmented the market. And he added that what is truly needed is more openness in developing applications.

Yes, prior to the iPhone innovation was zipping along rapidly, but now it’s stuck because the iPhone is closed. The iPhone is hindering innovation because it’s highly integrated.

Ballmer argued that device openness was important to give customers more choices. And he pointed to the number of choices that Windows Mobile customers have when choosing a device.

We’d all have more choices if we’d all choose Windows Mobile.

Fast-forward one year and Microsoft decides to offer more choice by adding a new operating system (in parallel to its existing OS) and Nokia decides to solve fragmentation by launching a new platform called MeeGo (in parallel to Symbian).

Microsoft's standardised handsets will win the day, says Gartner

Symbian will lose smartphone battle
By Rob Jones at Gartner Symposium ITxpo, Cannes [07-11-2003]
Microsoft’s standardised handsets will win the day, says Gartner

Analyst Gartner has warned that, without a concerted effort by Symbian and its backers, Microsoft will sweep them aside in the smartphone business.

Redmond’s ability to offer standardised handsets which are easier for businesses to support and use will help the software giant win corporate approval, the market watcher predicted.

The analyst predicted that Microsoft will ship a phone boasting strong integration of a range of packages, such as Exchange and Outlook.

Symbian, he added, needed to resolve a number of issues to be a credible, corporate alternative. Its platform and menus differ slightly on various handsets, which means that they often do not have the same user interface.

So spoke Nick Jones, vice president and research fellow at Gartner in 2003.

Is the Expert Smart or Stupid?

A new survey has found that 13 percent of respondents are likely to buy Apple’s forthcoming iPad, a number greater than the 9 percent who planned to purchase an iPhone before its launch in 2007.

link: AppleInsider | Apple iPad demand exceeding pre-launch iPhone buzz?

A summary of the typical expert reaction to the iPad in three steps:

Step 1: Expert: “Apple is stupid to launch such a dumb product!”

Step 2: Product sells very well

Step 3: Expert: “Well, what do you expect… People are stupid!”

Game developers move to iPhone, ignore Wii

Developers creating games for mobile phones increased to 25 percent, up from 12 percent a year ago. Of those mobile developers, 75 percent are targeting iPhone and iPod Touch games. The total number of iPhone developers is more than twice the number making games for the Nintendo DS and Sony PlayStation Portable.

link: Game developers move to iPhone, ignore Wii | VentureBeat

Smartphones forecast to grow 46% in 2010

Gartner sees smartphone market volume growing a whopping 46 percent from 172.4 million sold last year, boosted by cheaper models. The most affordable now cost just over $100 excluding operator subsidies.

link: Handset market rebounding in 2010: report – Yahoo! News

Anyone modeling iPhone growth this year below 50% is implying Apple will lose share.

If Apple maintains market share (about 15%) it would sell about 37 million iPhones in 2010. Apple grew iPhone unit sales about 84% from 2008 to 2009.