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Author Horace Dediu

The Critical Path #176 The Over-Under Service Dichotomy

Horace talks about developments in Disruption theory. A fairly long and deep discourse on the state-of-the-art in innovation theory development.

Source: The Critical Path #176

Asymcar #33 Concept, Outcome and Pivot

 

Sam Abuelsamid reflects on the origins of BMW’s i program, today’s economics and the application of lessons learned.

We veer into supply chain details and consider the path that the legacy automakers have chosen.

The show closes with a discussion of Apple’s entry assets, supply chain power and business model evolution.

Source: Asymcar #33

Asymcar 32: Tesla: the Numbers

Anton Wahlman joins us as we dive into numbers, production curves and the clash between reality, vision and hubris over autonomous carsTesla’s “financial equation” merits much discussion interspersed with reflections on an EV landscape littered with government subsidies.We close with accounting, including a dissertation on variable costs and the burden of “dealerless” car sales.

Source: 5by5 | Asymcar #32: Asymcar 32: Running the Numbers

The Critical Path #175: There Is No Such Thing As A Free Service

We pause briefly from talking about cars to talk Apple’s quarterly. The China slowdown, the Watch as the future of computing, services and trusting an advising automaton.

Source: The Critical Path #175

Asymcar #31 Serenity Now

Brand (new) theory: Can a well known brand do something new? Must the new thing stand alone? Must it have a new name, a new distribution model? We evaluate BMW’s “i” sub-brand from both a strategic and tactical perspective. Also a more nuanced review of the i3 after driving it a while. What is the real job it does.

Source: Asymcar #31

The Critical Path #173 iPod, iPhone, iPad, i3?

Horace explains why he was wrong about the BMW i3. Also, more Q&A.

Source: The Critical Path #173

The Critical Path #172 This is an iPad Pro and This is an  iPad Pro

On this special “in person” edition of the Critical Path, Horace and Anders discuss Apple’s latest product offerings, the iPhone SE and the new 9.7 inch iPad Pro 9.7, and take listener questions via Twitter.

Source: The Critical Path #172

Dialogue with Sviatoslav Rosov for CFA Institute Magazine

 

Why is an expert on disruptive technology “worried” about financial innovation?

 

Excerpt from “Chaos Is Hard to Predict”

Does technical innovation always end in displacement/ replacement?
The professions being challenged include physicians, lawyers, consultants, and analysts. Algorithms and sensors could conceivably displace some subset. However, it’s not a certainty. One way to fend off automation displacement is to redefine and change the scope of the profession.

The classic example is from the birth of the Industrial Revolution. As machines replaced certain tasks, new jobs were created which required higher skills and hence edu- cation, leading to universal matriculation and eventually the popularity of higher education. Professionals need to “invent” new jobs for themselves as a means to keep disruption at bay.

Read more: CFA Institute Magazine.

 

The Next 40

In Apple’s first 40 years it shipped 1,591,092,250 computers[1].

This shipment total is higher than any other computer company in its first 40 years. Actually there are no other PC makers that are 40 years old. One computer maker (IBM) is older but they only sold PCs for 24 years and what they still sell they don’t sell in high numbers.

That does not make it the top seller in a given year. Looking at only the Mac, Apple’s traditional form factor personal computer, Apple has only returned to the top 5 last year. Only if including the iPad it was the top computer vendor in 2011 and including iPhone, it was first in 2009.

Screen Shot 2016-03-28 at 11.36.56 AM

After having a 40 year run and after selling more computers than all American and Japanese computer companies put together, how should we think about the next 40 years?

First, clearly Apple shifted from being a “computer company”. It has already changed its name to exclude the word “Computer” but that has been interpreted as saying that it sells devices (which happen to also be computers.) The word “computer” is already archaic. We stopped using computers to compute in the 40s. We used them to make decisions, keep track of things, speed things up and then to communicate and then to entertain.

Devices, it seems, are what customers mainly use to do, well, everything. Computing has grown to encompass most activities we engage in. So is Apple then a device maker?

Notes:
  1. including Apple II, Mac, iPhone, iPad and iPod touch; excluding Apple Watch, Apple TV and other iPods. Includes Q1 shipments estimated at 63,597,000 Macs, iPhones and iPads []

Significant Digits #3 

 

The latest episode of Significant Digits is available for download.

In One Infinite we loop you in on the last show at the Loop. We expand on the small numbers and condense the big numbers.