Year: 2010

Competing with non-consumption: Can Apple sell 100M iPhones next year?

[Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair] also contends that Apple’s production forecasts suggest the company thinks it can sell 100 million iPhones next year. “While a staggering number any way you look at it, our checks reflect full calendar 2010 builds in the 48-50 million unit range,” he writes. “While this number can change and adjust downward or upward  based on demand, we believe it is incredibly bullish that Apple feels it is possible that they could see nearly 100% year over year growth for iPhone in 2011 as this would mean that exiting 2011, Apple would have approximately 10% share in the global handset market.”

via Apple Can Sell 100M iPhones, 48M iPads in 2011, Analyst Says – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com.

Apple is, in my estimate, likely to sell at least 47 million iPhones in calendar 2010. (16 million in the current quarter, or 85% y/y growth).

The 100 million in 2011 estimate assumes 100% growth on average. Is it really “staggering” to forecast another year of triple digit growth? Continue reading “Competing with non-consumption: Can Apple sell 100M iPhones next year?”

Absolute value: the handset market stacked

In previous posts I detailed shares for units, sales and profits. I also offered different ways to look at the data like rankings and profit “area” maps.

This article is about the absolute numbers. What is the total market in terms of units sold, sales and operating profits.

The time frame remains from the second quarter in 2007 to the third quarter of 2010. The same eight vendors are analyzed (with “Other” available for units analysis only). Continue reading “Absolute value: the handset market stacked”

Estimating Android market share for the third quarter

Take a look at this chart. It combines the known shipment data with the total market size for smartphones as defined by Canalys.

Knowing the platform/vendor make-up we can estimate the percent of the market that was Android. Continue reading “Estimating Android market share for the third quarter”

iPhone's smartphone share continues to rise

There is some confusion with the latest Canalys teaser press release. The implication is that Apple has lost smartphone platform share due to the Android surge.

Using the published data, it’s easy to see that Apple has continued to increase share in both smartphones and handsets as a whole.

I used green bars to represent quarterly share of smartphones and blue bars to represent quarterly share of all phones.

I used orange line to show trailing four quarters (TTM) share in regular phones and red for smartphones. Continue reading “iPhone's smartphone share continues to rise”

What's the opposite of price erosion?

In the mobile phone industry, and indeed, in most technology sectors, price decline is a fact of life. Component prices tend to drop while their performance increases. This rapid obsolescence drives prices down constantly. Competition also plays a part as undifferentiated products are rapidly imitated.

This phenomenon has its own term: price erosion. It’s built into most business plans and forecasts.

But how real is it? What are the implications in terms of market share if one accelerates price erosion or reverses it?

This chart shows the average selling price for all the vendors whose data I maintain over a period of time. Continue reading “What's the opposite of price erosion?”

Making it up in volume? How to view unit profitability vs. volume in handsets

The following chart shows the third quarter’s profitability of eight top phone vendors as a measure of phones sold multiplied by profit per phone. Continue reading “Making it up in volume? How to view unit profitability vs. volume in handsets”

Postcards for Asymco: metropolitan distribution of views by operating system

Based on a reader query, I tried to find out where, by city, my readership is concentrated. I also sought to break this audience down by operating system.

Here are some observations:

For the last 30 days, here are the top operating systems used to reach Asymco.com, with the number of views from each. Continue reading “Postcards for Asymco: metropolitan distribution of views by operating system”

Last quarter Apple obtained 4% unit share, 22% sales value share and 50% of profit share

Pie charts showing 13 quarters of mobile phone market evolution between the largest vendors. Pure play smartphone only vendors are shown with exploded wedges. Continue reading “Last quarter Apple obtained 4% unit share, 22% sales value share and 50% of profit share”

Trading Places: How Apple climbed into the Top Tier

Apple reached fourth place in ranking of top phone vendors by units sold. I guess that makes it a “top tier” vendor.

So how did it get there?

Here is a chart showing how market share evolved since the quarter when iPhone launched:

Continue reading “Trading Places: How Apple climbed into the Top Tier”